peludo

I do not know if there is a release date for Shazam in China. Anyway, within a month CM will have done the 99.9% of its potential box office in China, so CM should not be worried about it.

Whatever it does, it is still direct competition. And taking into account the health of the genre, I would not bet against Shazam.

I am not so sure of that. We could see this: DOM: $375m (x2.45) China: $140m (x1.6) Rest of the world: $550m (x2.5+$15m in Japan) WW: $1.065b Remember that late legs should not be very good because of Shazam and Endgame

Spain: According comScore, €3m by the end of Saturday. Impressive figure. Over €4m weekend for sure, which is in the same range than Age of Ultron (€4.3m), and well over solo SH openings.

My guess is Infinity War, like Avengers did in 2012. Both films have been the responsibles of these jumps. I think that 1b Yuan (140-150 milion dollars) is very probable for every SH film from now, no matters the brand. Far from Home could manage even bigger than that. The jump is undeniable in the genre. It is just that we can expect big numbers from certain films. Endgame will probably repeat or even increase IW figures. Maybe we could see the first 3b Yuan Hollywood film. Who knows...

Well, you were talking about tastes and you listed some bad considered films which were huge successes in China. And I listed some other good considered films which made huge business there. That is an old discussion which, IMHO, is unfair with Chinese market. People consume shit everywhere, not just in China. If you did not want to say that, I apologize in advance. Anyway, Marvel has always made the same numbers since 2013 for EVERY solo SH film: 600-800 million Yuan. Ant-Man 2 jumped a little. Then, we have had Venom and Aquaman, which have made superb numbers. The fact is that CM opening is QUITE BIGGER than any other Marvel film, and it will make much more than than any other previous solo MCU film. Another debate is that if some people had asumed that every SH film should make 250-300 million to not be considered a disappointment in China. Maybe it is just that people have loved both Venom and Aquaman, and not so much Captain Marvel.

I am not saying that CM will do bad numbers. It will make over $1b (unless something strange happens). My initial reaction was because it seems China only likes bad films. And that is not true. And the fact that CM will have bad legs there it is not because China has a bad taste with films (something that has been said here several times), but maybe because CM is not as liked as some people here asume. I insist, I have not seen the film. And I am not a hater, if some people are thinking it. I love some MCU films, being the first Guardians my favourite.

People who dislike the film in that forum used to like the other MCU films. Of course it is just some opinions. But if you add the probable Chinese collapse, there is maybe a trend... (I insist that I have not seen the film. I can not give an opinion about it)

Coco, Zootopia, Life of Pi, Interstellar, Green Book (yes that forgotten film in these forums because of the Marvel craziness which is making simlilar business in China than in USA)... Stop with that shit. And remember that all those "great" films that you mention are made in USA, not in China. It seems that China is the only responsible that those films are made and the only one who see those films: the 3 first TF films did over $300m in USA. I have not seen CM yet, but I read Spanish forums and many people says it is the worst film of the whole MCU. Maybe it is not a problem of Chinese people, but everywhere... Maybe some fanatics shoule be ready for some shitty legs everywhere, not just in China. Maybe Marvel has a problem with the quality of its products and not certain key markets with their tastes...

OD Infinity War: 387m Yuan (446m with presales) Venom: 223m (241m) Age of Ultron: 185m (215m) Civil War: 180m (197m) Aquaman: 157m (165m) Ant-Man and the Wasp: 143m (152m)

Maoyan is already forecasting over 500m Yuan for it

Maoyan is projecting 1.292b Yuan total for CM ($192.5m). We'll see if it is able to hold that projection within some days.

March 1st-3rd: Apparently good drop for HTTYD3, but the total after second weekend is similar to HTTYD2, which dropped a 58% and opened lower. I guess that Summer weekdays compensated the weekends. 9-10m should be the target, like the other 2 previous films. Green Book increases a 34% after winning the Oscar. Unpredictable. I say €10m but who knows. Good drop for Alita. It should reach €6m. Bohemian Rhapsody increases again after Oscars. I guess this is the last rebound. It has outgrossed The Others and already ranks #13. Next station, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (€27.69m). Captain Marvel coming tomorrow. I do not know if Women's day can take more people to see this female starred film, but I think we should expect the same opening than other MCU solo films, somewhere between 2 and 3 million euros.

I have done lots of lists adjusting by ERs and I never realized of that... what a fail

Enormous. Mainly since last year: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43324406 https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/08/europe/global-womens-strike-international-womens-day-intl/index.html

Holdovers could be a bit affected, but destroyed? Last year, during Black Panther OW, just 50 shades freed dropped over a 50% among top 10. Even The shape of water was released the same weekend with a good €1.6m. Maybe this year, with Women's day it can have better data than BP considering that the film is starred by a woman, but considering the size of SH films in Spain I do not see a debacle in holdovers.

Heading to 9-10 million euros in Spain. What does it mean? On par to most superhero film, for example. Only Avengers or, recently Aquaman, have done better figures.

My bad. That means a 17% better, so with similar legs, we could expect 10.5-11 million for this 3rd part.

February 22nd-24th: HTTYD3 opens similar to second part. It should manage similar numbers: HTTYD1: 9,423,167 € HTTYD2: 9,030,897 € Alita's drop is quite average. €4.5-5m final. Green Book drops a minimal 15% before winning Oscars. I see unpredictable where it can land now. €7.5-8m is probable, maybe it can try €10m, what would be great for this kind of film. BR finally reaches €27m. It already ranks #14 of all time. The Others (#13) is just €200k ahead. It needs €650k more to beat HP1 (#12). It still could do it.

I wish it could, but I do not know. You can know it better Relative to the date, competing with Lego movie, Dumbo and the latest weeks of Captain Marvel is a problem, sure. But the genre of the film is very different of those films. It could find its audience. It is a dramatic comedy about intellectual disability. It can be understood and liked everywhere, not just in Spain.

Surprising. It did not even grossed €1m in Spain. I have not seen the film, but it seems to be a sci-fi thriller, with time travels. Do you know when will it be released? I will follow its run. On the other side, Campeones is the highest local grosser of 2018 (€19m) and it has won 3 Goyas (Spanish Oscars), including best picture.

Glad to see another (good) Spanish film being released there. Curious to see how it performs.

Do you think Alita will make more than $110m DOM?

February 15th-17th: Decent opening for Alita taking into account the numbers of other countries. It should manage 6-7 million euros and 1 million admissions. Green Book seems to be definitely the most benefited because awards (beyond BR). Another great drop. It could try €6m. Lego movie will probably be destroyed by HTTYD3, which opens today. €2.5m, maybe €3m, but no more. Aquaman is probably leaving the top 25 this weekend, but it has had a very good run for a SH film, close to €14m. We will see what happens on Sunday with Oscars to know if BR definitely falls in €27m or if it has a (new) bump to go beyond that amount.

It is a bit shocking (and fun) to see people saying Alita's opening is disappointing when China OW=2xDOM OW