peludo

As we discussed here some days ago, the animated film did not get superb figures either. Correct numbers, but not incredible. For some reason France is not in love with this story. Nothing wrong about it. Just a bit surprising, from my point of view.

Maybe a bit high for Justice League, but in general I agree.

Even with "pessimistic" projections , it is probable to do the second biggest OW ever, over TA and JW. Absurd.

If I had to bet I would say 3b for F8 and 2.5b for TF5.

I think it is locked. After the 2nd weekend drop I thought it would fly over €25m, but even with the hard 3rd wknd drop it still should reach €21-22m, mainly more considering Holy Week is coming. But you are right, €20m is not an easy barrier. BatB will be the 41st film reaching that number in Spain (The Two Towers ranks #41 in USA, for reference).

Am I wrong or those OD projections do not include midnights ??

Ok, maybe blockbusters are now lower than in previous years, but I think that factor should not be an excuse to not say this is a just good, decent, and not an impressive performance. Just a data: if this finally makes 4m admissions, that means it would rank #418 in all time adjusted list of France...

IMO, it depends on how crazy Japan turns about it. But I think it already needs over $150m from Japan to reach 1.3b. Probably more. Really hard.

Pretty agree, but remember that ER in 2013 were better than now. I do not have updated figures, but I guess that those $483m are a bit over $400m today. I would say $500m OS-C, and something around to $900m OS total.

France sells 200m admissions per year, being, BY FAR, the biggest European market in terms of admissions. 4m admissions is average for a blockbuster. BatB is going to sell the same amount of admissions in Spain and the market size is half of France. Decent number from France, sure, but nothing impressive.

Of course, not every megablockbuster must be massive everywhere. It is just that surprises me that a so iconical story does not make impressive figures like in other near countries.

Nothing wrong, but one would asume bigger figures. Maybe they like it, but numbers say they do not love it. The 3rd opening of the year being just in March is not specially impressive. BatB is a tale placed in France with French characters. With that premise this film should make massive numbers and it is just fine. For some reason, France prefer another stories.

Looking at numbers that animated film did there I am not so surprised. I do not why, but even taking place there, France do not seem to like too much the story.

To see that 2.0 ratio in Spain is so sad. In 2004 it was 3.25...

$730m OS for F8? F7 did over $520m adding China, Brazil, Mexico and Russia, and I do not see F8 dropping too much in those territories. IMO, it will make at least $800m, and I think it has chances of $900m.

About $70m

Just for reference, Jungle Book did €17m last year in Spain. Beauty and the Beast seems headed to €25m, who knows if more.

I do not think it has a chance. But it seems to be doing something truly special here, in Spain. According @Rth and the Beast, it is heading for a sub -20% drop second weekend after an already very big opening.

I do not think Guardians or Justice League are the competitors to be #2 WW, but, as @Valonqar and @FantasticBeasts say, F8. I have JL with a slim chance to make 1b and Guardians making maybe 1.1b, but not as high as BatB, which seems headed to about 1.25b, unless Japan explodes. On the other side, a film that has a probable $350-400m foreign market is really hard to compete with. And although a drop seems unavoidable in consolidated markets, Furious saga seems to have more appealing in developing markets. Beyond the 390 million in China, F7 did 46 million in Brazil, 51 in Mexico or 34 in Russia with already shit ER. $523m from 4 markets and I see hard F8 can drop in those countries. I could easily see a 275/950/1.225b scenario, which seems enough menace to not lock the #2 WW spot for BatB.

Yes, it was very big (5 million adm), athough not as big as the others you mentioned

Surprisingly, France was not specially big for the animated film. If I remember well it sold something like 4.5 million admissions. Respectable figure but nothing impressive (it sold more admissions in Spain, for example)

This. We can have 3 films between 530 and 535 million. Curious.

Sure. Among the recent +1.3b, all of them have needed to make enormous figures in 1 or more OS country to reach it (beyond a stellar DOM performance). Both JW and Ultron did well over $200m in China. F7 did nearly $400m. We already know what Frozen did in Japan. And Star Wars had 3 (nearly 4) OS markets over $100m. The real hope for BatB is Japan. And the style of the film really fits with their tastes. I am not saying it will make $200m, but it could surprise.

The difference between 1b and 1.3b is $300m Sure, even with the probable good legs (x3 multiplier), it will still need to make big numbers in Japan to reach DH2. But even if it fails and it "only" makes over 1.2b, with 2011 ER we would be talking about over 1.4b and making just $100m in China. It is a monster.