peludo

The first really hard choice is to choose the director... there are so many. I would say that among my favorites are Hitchcock, John Ford, Scorsese or Spielberg. But if I have to choose today, I would pick Billy Wilder. He gave us masterpieces in every genre he touched. My list: 1. The Apartment (my third favorite film ever) 2. One, two, three 3. Witness for the prosecution 4. Irma la Douce 5. Double Indemnity 6. Some like it hot 7. Sunset Boulevard 8. The private life of Sherlock Holmes 9. Sabrina 10. Love in the afternoon 11. Kiss me, stupid I would have to think about it, but it is safe to say that 4 or 5 would be in my top 100.

This. I do not know if it can be able to make tons of money in China, but it is undeniable that this is the kind of film that has a chance to breakout. IMO, over $100m is quite likely.

just divide by 6.87

It is already at 207m Yuan (223m Yuan with midnights) and Friday is still not over.

Spain, February 19th included: €2,240,359 and 362,357 admissions. This means $2,374,613 with today ER. Pretty similar to BOM figure.

With today exchange rate, $247.3m

Some cumes: 50 shades darker: €9,243,168 Batman Lego: €2,460,605 La la land: €11,384,419 Split: €6,660,289 Sing!: €17,076,728 Moana: €10,531,017

The Lion King v. Gone with the Wind Raiders of the Lost Ark v. Star Wars: The Force Awakens Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back v. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial The Godfather v. The Sound of Music Rogue One: A Star Wars Story v. American Graffiti Star Wars: A New Hope v. The Jungle Book (1967) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King v. The Avengers Jaws v. Beverly Hills Cop Doctor Zhivago v. Ghostbusters Star Wars: Return of the Jedi v. Pinocchio Cinderella (1950) v. The Ten Commandments Mary Poppins v. Titanic The Dark Knight v. Ben-Hur Fantasia v. The Bells of St. Mary's Jurassic Park v. Spider-Man 2 Forrest Gump v. Shrek 2

You can expect big numbers from Spain too. Beauty & the Beast is the second biggest Disney classic ever here (4.927m admissions), just behind The Lion King (6.3m), and the 4th animated ever, behind Shrek 2 (6.08m) and Finding Nemo (4.989m, basically tied with BatB).

According Chinese thread, it could have a massive OD in China. Around $30m OD. So you should up that estimation. http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/21485-presales-tracking-threadmaoyan-gewara-etc/?do=findComment&comment=2873153

It could be more frontloaded than reference films and burn off faster the demand (I do not know if there are many hardcore fans of RE in China). Anyway, it seems a big number because 2 days earlier it has a way higher figure for OD than FB, Strange or xXx.

Let's say that the first part did really well (nearly 600m Yuan) considering it was not a sequel. And with great legs, if I remember well, what I think it is even more important.

Guardians is way more likely to pass 1 billion Yuan (IMO locked) than Spider-man. Maybe 1.2b. Spidey has chances (TASM2 already did nearly 600m Yuan in 2014), but I am not completely sold. Maybe the presence of Iron Man in the film can benefit to reach it. Thor 3 should make Ant-Man figures (about 600-700m).

Maybe we can not say it is locked, but I think it has many chances. With current ER, $250m means 1.72b Yuan. Ultron already did 1.464b. That would mean a 17% increase in a 3 years period. Not so crazy even with the slower increase of the market. You can look in other way: Ultron increased 900m Yuan in 3 years relative to TA. I see reasonable to think that TA3 can increase "just" 250m Yuan relative to Ultron. Let's see how MCU performs during 2017 anyway.

Could BatB reach the same level than Jungle Book (around 1 billion)? And is there any other local film with big expectations?

In your opinion, which one is favorite to win the year?

Just to say that KFY and JTTW2 will rank tomorrow #6 and #7 in the all time chart. And I do not know if they will have enough fuel to outgross #5 (Mojin with 1.682b). Anyway, for the moment, it is like if The Dark Knight and Rogue One had been released the same day in USA.

February 10th-16th: 1. Justice League 2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 3. Wonder Woman 4. Beauty and the Beast 5. War for the Planet of the Apes 6. Dunkirk 7. Blade Runner 2049 8. Star Wars VIII 9. Thor: Ragnarok 10. Coco

Spain: Wknd 3-5th Feb (4th weekend): €1,328,998 - 196,961 admissions (-28%) Total: €9,149,428 - 1,461,257 admissions Heading to at very least 13-14 million, what would be identical to Mamma Mia! (€13.6m and 2.4 million admissions). If it sweeps in Oscars it will go higher. Very impressive figures for a musical. It has already outgrossed Chicago, for example (€8.8m and 1.8 million admissions).

First of all, I am not specially comfortable talking about box office potential because the death of some actors/actresses, but I think is unavoidable taking into account so obvious recent cases. IMO, Fisher's case is closer to Ledger and Walker than to Williams. Robin Williams' death was a tragedy, unexpected. But Night at the museum is an anecdotical film (with all my respect), a minor blockbuster. On the other side, Joker is one of the most iconical villains ever and the interpretation of Ledger is already legendary. Walker's case can be seen as a reflection of the film itself: he died doing what he did in the films, driving too fast. And the franchise was already big (beyond the Chinese explosion). Relative to Fisher's case, Leia is one of the most iconical characters ever concerning blockbusters. Her role is not as big as it was in the original trilogy, but many people have argued here that the enormous success of TFA has been precisely because of the return of Solo, Leia and Chewy. Nostalgia factor. I think that to see how Disney will solve Leia's destiny is an enormous reclaim. We should not underestimate this unexpected factor to make predictions. SW8 will probably drop relative to SW7, but maybe not so much as we had thought at the beginning.

IMHO, the reasons why SW8 will drop are more simple. The growth of LOTR in USA is unquestionable, but it is not so clear OS. FOTR was the most attended of the trilogy in most of the European countries (FOTR 61.2m admissions, TTT 55.6m, ROTK 54.7m, according Lumiere). And in many countries, FOTR was a monster, one of the most attended films ever, so there was not too much room to grow. The reason why LOTR grew OS was just because exchange rates. FOTR (and 2001 films) are the most hit by this factor ever. ER were even worse in that period (euro under dollar). On the other side, in USA, FOTR being big, it was not THAT big, and allowed the sequels to grow. LOTR was, in general, bigger in OS markets than in USA. Relative to Star Wars, it is a different phenomenon. It was a monster since the first film. It was really hard for it to grow. And the same happens now. I do not know if Fisher's death can make people return and maybe we can have a surprise. But even Empire Strikes Back, being considered for many the best of the franchise and with many emotional moments, dropped a lot relative to Star Wars. When we talk about so enourmous numbers, it is hard not just growing, but to keep the same level of interest.

I am starting to think this can win the year OS. I know: F8, TF5, SW8... but this seems to be the real 4-quadrant film of the year. The potential is ginormous.

Try half of that, and it still could miss it.

According first data of Tuesday (cbooo.cn), JTTW2 and KFY are already tied (26.5m vs 25.9m).

No, just what I told you in a previous post. TFA was a must-see film. It was everywhere. It was the link chapter to the original trilogy. In Spain, Empire Strikes Back dropped a 50% relative to Star Wars even being considered by many people the best film of the franchise. And Attack of the Clones dropped 2.3 million admissions relative to Phantom Menace. The first part of each trilogy has been a phenomenon and it is hard for a sequel to achieve the same after the novelty factor, independently of the quality of the first or second film. Even more if we take into account that we are having a Star Wars film every year. Saturation with spin offs can be a problem for Star Wars. It is not the same to wait 32 years to see how a story goes on (ROTJ->TFA) than to wait 2 years. The drop is inevitable.