There's not a strong trend between IM and DOM multi. It's there, but not enough to predict Venom within smaller than a $50M range ($195M-$245M) from that factor alone.
Well the original grosses were 307 and 209 for a 68.07% retention. Which is exactly where TLJ will end up.
If you really want to get detailed Star Wars made about 220 before its first official reissue/reexpansion and ESB made about 181. Both around 14 months of release. That puts initial retention at about 82%.
Sony getting their biggest non-Spidey hit in 2 decades from something that just kind of happened without any real zeitgeist pull is a very strange way to end the year.
I have it being at around 535-540 on New Years Day vs 507 for JW at the same point in its run. Of course JW was headed into 4th of July and deep summer weekdays while TLJ will be heading into regular January weekdays. I don’t see $150M left in the tank from Jan 2 on like JW had, but it should pass $650M with ease.
Whole lot of bracketed numbers on the sheets at WB on Monday. Damn.
Haven't seen it yet but I'm shocked that the Wondy bump didn't keep the OW on par with BVS.
Friday openers over $100m (adj) with 3x legs since 2000:
Wonder Woman (Summer)
Rogue One (Holiday)
Finding Dory (S)
The Secret Life of Pets (S)
The Jungle Book
The Force Awakens (H)
Jurassic World (S)
Guardians of the Galaxy (S)
The Avengers
Toy Story 3 (S)
The Dark Knight (S)
Iron Man
Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (S)
The Incredibles
Finding Nemo (S)
Spider-Man
Harry Potter 1 (H)
Rush Hour 2 (S)
My formula is production budget plus 10% compared to the estimated rentals broken up by the different rates for domestic/international/China. Approximates for the ratio of home video/television revenue streams and other costs to the theatrical details we get.
I have this estimated as losing $30-40m, depending on Cruise's participations (which I'm sure are generous).
It would have to do something like 100 DOM / 160 INTL / 90 CHINA to get out of the red (350 WW).