2016 Discussion Thread (Gremlins/Goonies In the Works)

[Neo]

June 3 seems the most likely to me. May is too crowded, and Nov 23 is the (supposed) release of Giants. Opening against Sausage Party wouldn't hurt ST3 too bad, plus it has 2 weeks until Finding Dory/HTTYD3, and in between, it'll have to face against Uncharted, which may still be big, but I don't think it'll scare Paramount away from the date. July as it stands is much much too crowded already, even though a lot of stuff will most likely move.

 

There's also the fact that BvS, Alice and Dragon 3 will all probably move, and any of these dates is possible. 

 

Then again, Paramount may opt for the Nov 11 date, and force Sony to move Sinister Six...

Why would Giants being released matter. Doubt Uncharted does more than 40M/140M. July 22 would be a good spot. So no to June 24?

[James]

I think everyone is underestimating Fantastic Beasts. It will be hyped as hell and it will be in 3D, unlike the first 7 Potter movies. And all of those made around 300M. Yeah, it will drop, but with IMAX/3D, years of inflation and one of the most loyal and steady fanbases in movie history, I don't see it doing less than 250M.  

Edited July 28, 2014 by James

[DAJK]

If Big Hero 6 is as big as many people are predicting, I think Giants could continue that trend. Giants and ST3 hopefully wouldn't have too much audience overlap, but I don't think Paramount would be willing to take the risk. I would be surprised if they released ST3 on Nov 23, but I wouldn't quite place it in "impossible" yet.

 

I don't think June 24 would work, even if TF5 doesn't release then. July 4th weekend will probably be huge, cutting into ST3's legs. The rest of July is pretty big as well with "Untitled Marvel (maybe Dr. Strange), Bourne, Ice Age (which will be huge OS), King Arthur (which may move), and Apes 3. 

 

I'm still going to stick with June 3, just because it seems like the less risky date. However Nov 23, Nov 11 are still (possible) but unlikely. July 22 would be preferable to June 24, but I just can't see it happening. I'll say no to May 20th however, because of the uncertainty of the slate (BvS vs Cap 3, Alice vs X-Men, and Dragon vs Dory)

[DAJK]

I think everyone is underestimating Fantastic Beasts. I will be hyped as hell and it will be in 3D, unlike the first 7 Potter movies. And all of those made around 300M. Yeah, it will drop, but with IMAX/3D, years of inflation and one of the most loyal and steady fanbases in movie history, I don't see it doing less than 250M.  

I agree. However, I think it will do most of it's major business on OW, much like the other Potter films. I can see it hitting 240-260, but I don't think it'll cause too much of a problem for any films opening the weekend after. What are your OW predictions?

 

Personally, I can see 105/240, which would be great.

[Neo]

I think everyone is underestimating Fantastic Beasts. It will be hyped as hell and it will be in 3D, unlike the first 7 Potter movies. And all of those made around 300M. Yeah, it will drop, but with IMAX/3D, years of inflation and one of the most loyal and steady fanbases in movie history, I don't see it doing less than 250M.  

DHII was in 3D and not sure on DHI. Same was said of the Hobbit but this spinoff should be more seen as closer to Fast 3 or Wolverine.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Neo

[Neo]

If Big Hero 6 is as big as many people are predicting, I think Giants could continue that trend. Giants and ST3 hopefully wouldn't have too much audience overlap, but I don't think Paramount would be willing to take the risk. I would be surprised if they released ST3 on Nov 23, but I wouldn't quite place it in "impossible" yet.

 

I don't think June 24 would work, even if TF5 doesn't release then. July 4th weekend will probably be huge, cutting into ST3's legs. The rest of July is pretty big as well with "Untitled Marvel (maybe Dr. Strange), Bourne, Ice Age (which will be huge OS), King Arthur (which may move), and Apes 3. 

 

I'm still going to stick with June 3, just because it seems like the less risky date. However Nov 23, Nov 11 are still (possible) but unlikely. July 22 would be preferable to June 24, but I just can't see it happening. I'll say no to May 20th however, because of the uncertainty of the slate (BvS vs Cap 3, Alice vs X-Men, and Dragon vs Dory)

Why are you so high on Giants? What risk?

[James]

I agree. However, I think it will do most of it's major business on OW, much like the other Potter films. I can see it hitting 240-260, but I don't think it'll cause too much of a problem for any films opening the weekend after. What are your OW predictions?

 

Personally, I can see 105/240, which would be great.

 

95M/255. At least for now.

DHII was in 3D and not sure on DHI. Same was said of the Hobbit but this spinoff should be more seen as closer to Fast 3 or Wolverine.

DH1 wasn't in 3D. But people seem to forget that the first Hobbit still made 300M. Yeah, it had 3D and inflation, but that still is a good gross, even compared to LOTR. And the LOTR fanbase is not even nearly as rabid as the HP one  They will show up. HP is one of the very few big franchises which probably is based more on it's pure fanbase than GA and that can be seen in the constancy of it's DOM total (except for the last movie).

[Neo]

95M/255. At least for now.

DH1 wasn't in 3D. But people seem to forget that the first Hobbit still made 300M. Yeah, it had 3D and inflation, but that still is a good gross, even compared to LOTR. And the LOTR fanbase is not even nearly as rabid as the HP one  They will show up. HP is one of the very few big franchises which probably is based more on it's pure fanbase than GA and that can be seen in the constancy of it's DOM total (except for the last movie).

Didn't forget. If you think this movie will make 300M+ that is crazy as of now.

[James]

Didn't forget. If you think this movie will make 300M+ that is crazy as of now.

I didn't say that. I was talking about The Hobbit. Fot FBAWTFT I see a 250-255M total. I wrote that above

[Jonwo]

Fantastic Beasts is a Harry Potter spin-off without Harry Potter so it's no mean a guarantee to be a hit. I think it'll do well regardless.

 

Star Trek has the advantage of the 50th anniversary that year and that is essentially free publicity for the film since every TV show and media will be talking to everyone connected to the franchise. If they release it in November, Paramount would have almost a year to promote it and you could release the final trailer on the actual anniversary.

[DAJK]

Why are you so high on Giants? What risk?

I just think that giants has the potential to be big. Not Frozen big obviously, but big. The Disney animation brand is strong right now, and while that may change before 2016, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. I might change my mind after Big Hero 6 however, if it under preforms critically or at the box office.

[DAJK]

Fantastic Beasts is a Harry Potter spin-off without Harry Potter so it's no mean a guarantee to be a hit. I think it'll do well regardless.

 

Star Trek has the advantage of the 50th anniversary that year and that is essentially free publicity for the film since every TV show and media will be talking to everyone connected to the franchise. If they release it in November, Paramount would have almost a year to promote it and you could release the final trailer on the actual anniversary.

I have no doubt the Potter name will be at the center of the marketing, which will probably give it a huge OW

[Neo]

I just think that giants has the potential to be big. Not Frozen big obviously, but big. The Disney animation brand is strong right now, and while that may change before 2016, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. I might change my mind after Big Hero 6 however, if it under preforms critically or at the box office.

But won't hurt ST or any other live-action movie. Won't do 250M+

[Jonwo]

I just think that giants has the potential to be big. Not Frozen big obviously, but big. The Disney animation brand is strong right now, and while that may change before 2016, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. I might change my mind after Big Hero 6 however, if it under preforms critically or at the box office.

 

Giants will be the first WDAS movie musical since Frozen since both Big Hero 6 and Zootopia will be non musical, I imagine if they can secure Bobby and Kristina Lopez to do the score, they can use from the creators of Frozen tagline. 

[DAJK]

But won't hurt ST or any other live-action movie. Won't do 250M+

Haha I sure hope it wont, if ST does open there! 

 

Right now I have it at 230-255M, but of course there are so many factors that could change that number over the next few years

[zackzack]

Now that 2016's line up is coming into play here are my initial predictions for it's top 15

 

1.Finding Dory - 540m 

2.Avatar 2 - 525m

3.Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - 475m

4.Star Wars Spin Off - 370m

5.Captain America 3 - 270m

6.Disney's Giants - 260m

7.Doctor Strange - 245m

8.Planet of the Apes 3 - 240m

9.Warcraft - 230m

10.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 225m

11.Shazam - 210m

12.X-Men: Apocalypse - 205m

13.Disney's Zootopia - 180m 

14.The Sandman - 175m

15.Skull Island - 170m

 

Dwayne Johnson playing another hero with superhuman strength? Look at Hercules being bitch-slapped by Lucy last weekend.

The X-Men franchise is bust. Fassbender as Magneto is the best thing that ever happens to the series though.

If BVS did less than $500M, fans, critics and myself will wonder if Warner/DC is relying more & more on hype, buzz, and twitter traffic

instead of the creativity they had shown with Donner's Superman, Burton's 2 Batman movies and Nolan's modern

trilogy of Batman movies.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

I think everyone is underestimating Fantastic Beasts. It will be hyped as hell and it will be in 3D, unlike the first 7 Potter movies. And all of those made around 300M. Yeah, it will drop, but with IMAX/3D, years of inflation and one of the most loyal and steady fanbases in movie history, I don't see it doing less than 250M.  

I am a huge fan of Harry Potter and i believe that if the new spin off film is good it might do even $300m or $350m!

But still we don't know much things yet so for now let's say $250m!

However OS it will do more than $500 million!

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Lets see November so far!

November 4:Trolls + Skull Island(I believe that probably both of them will do well but Skull Island will have a bigger opening)

 

November 11:The Sinister Six(I am dissapointed with Sony and i believe that this will flop or will barely make its money back )

 

November 18:Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them(Its not locked that this will be its title but hungry potter fans will watch it and it will probably do the biggest OW of November 2016)

 

November 23:Giants(I am not excited for this but its release date is very good and it will do at least $200m DOM)

[DAJK]

Lets see November so far!

November 4:Trolls + Skull Island(I believe that probably both of them will do well but Skull Island will have a bigger opening)

 

November 11:The Sinister Six(I am dissapointed with Sony and i believe that this will flop or will barely make its money back )

 

November 18:Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them(Its not locked that this will be its title but hungry potter fans will watch it and it will probably do the biggest OW of November 2016)

 

November 23:Giants(I am not excited for this but its release date is very good and it will do at least $200m DOM)

I think if Sony can keep the budget at around 180-200M, Sinister Six could make some money. 150-180DOM depending on quality, and 350+OS...

[Blankments]

Technically, nothing in 2016 is truly set yet.

So many films released over the years, and yet none of them a slate like this. Are the films destined to destroy each other, or can the movies survive each other, and unite? Is the future truly set?