4-Day Wknd Est: FF6 - 120M; TH3 - 51.2M; STID - 47M; Epic - 42.6M; IM3 - 24.3M; TGG - 17M

[John Marston]

And yet SKYFALL had weaker legs than CR.

 

 

Skyfall had a higher opening. The higher the opening the more legs will likely be smaller. 

[kayumanggi]

OBLIVION: $179.5M Overseas Total / $267M Global Total. #Oblivion

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/338703071775424512

[Chewy]

Huh? Light?Monsters UniversityWorld War ZThe HeatWhite House DownDespicable Me 2The Lone RangerGrown Ups 2Pacific RimAll these movies are released within 4 weeks after MoS release. Where is this "light" part you speak of ?

 

Yes compared to every other summer that is fairly light. I don't think any of those movies outside the cartoons even has 200M potential

[kayumanggi]

Well no, Fast Five added the Rock and reimagined the series as capers with cars. Hence the huge increase and stronger holds compared to the fourth one. So yes, must-see factors

 

Furious 6 kept all of those factors but they're no longer new, so there's less room to increase. It'll keep most of F5's audience and expand it a little, but it no longer has the unique must-see factor F5 did. So it'll open bigger, and have worse legs.

 

And the tanks, the plane? The end credit scene?

[ecstasy]

He was the co-star in The Shaggy Dog. Clearly the reason Iron Man opened to 98m.

 

This made LOL.

[ecstasy]

Huh? Light?

Monsters University

World War Z

The Heat

White House Down

Despicable Me 2

The Lone Ranger

Grown Ups 2

Pacific Rim

All these movies are released within 4 weeks after MoS release. Where is this "light" part you speak of ?

 

 

Is there any buzz for Pacific Rim. I haven't seen much of anything relating to that film.

[#ED]

The first thing we have to determine is how well Man of Steel and Monsters University might do in their respective first weekends, because that will have a big impact on everything else. These are both movies that could potentially open over $90 million based on early buzz and their four-quadrant audiences, but how well Man of Steel holds up will depend on whether it delivers on the trailers. It could theoretically make another $45 to 50 million in its second weekend if not for the release of World War Z, a zombie action movie starring Brad Pitt, who has starred in many movies that opened over $40 million, particularly during the summer. That movie could potentially snag some of the male audience from Man of Steel, and to think that three movies might gross $180 million between them on the weekend of June 21 is fairly incredible but not impossible.It's taking on the counter-programming of an action comedy that teams Sandra Bullock (her first movie since 2011's Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and her first comedy since 2009) and Melissa McCarthy, who already has one box office hit under her belt with Identity Thief. Oh and did we mention that the movie reunites McCarthy with her Bridesmaids director Paul Feig? Those three things alone should allow for an opening at $30 million or more, but again, we're looking at how much box office will be eaten up by the second weekends of Monsters University and World War Z. Honestly, we have more confidence in the former than the latter, which we think will drop more than 55% if it's as problematic as we think. But that makes us wonder whether either of the June 28 movies will be #1 or they'll be falling behind the Pixar sequel, which could be one of the biggest blockbusters of the summer going by the success of Toy Story 3. Basically, we think June 28 will look something like this:#1 White House Down#2 Monsters University#3 The Heat#4 Man of Steel#5 World War Z#6 This is the EndOh, yeah. That reminds us. One movie we didn't mention above is the Seth Rogen-Evan Goldberg apocalypse comedy This is the End (Sony) which has the unenvied task of opening two days before Man of Steel. The good news is that Sony is opening it on Wednesday, similar to Pineapple Express, which gives it two days to build word of mouth among fans of Rogen, Jonah Hill, James Franco and the others and while it may be hard to have much of an impact in a busy month, if it's as funny as we think it will be, it could bring in some trickles of extra business from word-of-mouth and maybe end up in the $75 to 80 million range.Comingsoon.net

[Sam]

Did IM1 has the best OW for a non-sequel superhero movie?

[Impact]

Did IM1 has the best OW for a non-sequel superhero movie?

Nope that is SM1

[kayumanggi]

This happens even in animated sequels. MADAGASCAR lll had a better multiplier than MADAGASCAR ll. This is why I don't buy that it's a sequel so the wom won't be better than the previous one argument.

[ecstasy]

Did IM1 has the best OW for a non-sequel superhero movie?

 

Spiderman?

[Impact]

This happens even in animated sequels. MADAGASCAR lll had a better multiplier than MADAGASCAR ll. This is why I don't buy that it's a sequel so the wom won't be better than the previous one argument.

They were released different times of the year also.

[Sam]

Nope that is SM1

Oh right, forgot about that. Thanks 

[Dragon]

The first thing we have to determine is how well Man of Steel and Monsters University might do in their respective first weekends, because that will have a big impact on everything else. These are both movies that could potentially open over $90 million based on early buzz and their four-quadrant audiences, but how well Man of Steel holds up will depend on whether it delivers on the trailers. It could theoretically make another $45 to 50 million in its second weekend if not for the release of World War Z, a zombie action movie starring Brad Pitt, who has starred in many movies that opened over $40 million, particularly during the summer. That movie could potentially snag some of the male audience from Man of Steel, and to think that three movies might gross $180 million between them on the weekend of June 21 is fairly incredible but not impossible.It's taking on the counter-programming of an action comedy that teams Sandra Bullock (her first movie since 2011's Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and her first comedy since 2009) and Melissa McCarthy, who already has one box office hit under her belt with Identity Thief. Oh and did we mention that the movie reunites McCarthy with her Bridesmaids director Paul Feig? Those three things alone should allow for an opening at $30 million or more, but again, we're looking at how much box office will be eaten up by the second weekends of Monsters University and World War Z. Honestly, we have more confidence in the former than the latter, which we think will drop more than 55% if it's as problematic as we think. But that makes us wonder whether either of the June 28 movies will be #1 or they'll be falling behind the Pixar sequel, which could be one of the biggest blockbusters of the summer going by the success of Toy Story 3.Basically, we think June 28 will look something like this:#1 White House Down#2 Monsters University#3 The Heat#4 Man of Steel#5 World War Z#6 This is the EndOh, yeah. That reminds us. One movie we didn't mention above is the Seth Rogen-Evan Goldberg apocalypse comedy This is the End (Sony) which has the unenvied task of opening two days before Man of Steel. The good news is that Sony is opening it on Wednesday, similar to Pineapple Express, which gives it two days to build word of mouth among fans of Rogen, Jonah Hill, James Franco and the others and while it may be hard to have much of an impact in a busy month, if it's as funny as we think it will be, it could bring in some trickles of extra business from word-of-mouth and maybe end up in the $75 to 80 million range.Comingsoon.net

I think the heat will beat WHD.

[kayumanggi]

They were released different times of the year also.

 

That doesn't matter. And mind you, MADAGASCAR ll didn't need to compete with another 200 M animated film like how MADAGASCAR lll did against BRAVE.

[cratos]

So there right? Not all comic book movies (new entries) made numbers the way IRON MAN did. Comic book adaptations usually don't perform like that. FANTASTIC FOUR, THOR, CA: TFA, GL.

Apparently you missed my whole post and bolded a few words? Yes, comparing Iron Man to THOSE movies is fair. I agree with that. Iron Man was much better received than those movies. Your point??

[ecstasy]

I think the heat will beat WHD.

 

Since HO3 kind of flopped I expect one these comedies to surge. It will either be Heat or that Seth Rogen comedy.

[kayumanggi]

Apparently you missed my whole post and bolded a few words? Yes, comparing Iron Man to THOSE movies is fair. I agree with that. Iron Man was much better received than those movies. Your point??

 

That your point that because a film is the first entry in a franchise, it is bound to get good wom.

 

I'm pretty sure most predictions for IM were similar to first entry comic book films.

Edited May 26, 2013 by kayumanggi

[ky02121]

Ugh..... Frances Ha was garbage. And at Before Midnight's results.

Frances Ha is one of the best films I've seen this year.

[cratos]

That your point that because a film is the first entry in a franchise, it is bound to get good wom. So I can compare FAF Vl to GREEN LANTERN but not to IRON MAN?

Wow you missed my point completely. It's a bird, it's a plane, no it's my point flying over your head(lame joked inspired by your sig)*