Tuesday Numbers: Frozen 2.464m, CF 2.373m

[lab276]

My question is how exactly are smaller theaters (less than 10 or so screens) going to handle the ridiculous surplus of wide releases in the next couple of weeks? Between December 18th and December 25th there are a total of 9 wide releases scheduled. I know it's the holidays but there isn't a snowball's chance in hell all those movies have a shot at success. More importantly, how will this effect Catching Fire and Frozen in said theaters? It's sort of annoying, I really hope this doesn't effect their Christmas boosts in any significant way. Especially because it is incredibly unneccessary to have that many fucking releases in one week.

Every Christmas is like that.

[spizzer]

Loss of IMAX will have negligible effect

 

 

 

 

And the 50% drop was just for example.  It won't fall that hard.

 

And now I've just realized that it isn't even losing all IMAX screens, so even that analysis is conservative.

[John Marston]

And now I've just realized that it isn't even losing all IMAX screens, so even that analysis is conservative.

Yes it is. It has to be

[spizzer]

Yes it is. It has to be

 

Why?  

 

http://purchase.tickets.com/buy/TicketPurchase

 

My 15/70 screen is playing it till January 2nd.  It's possible that the non-Digital IMAX screens might still be playing it.

[lab276]

Can someone please clarify:Wouldn't CF need to outgross IM3 before Jan 1st? Since I thought whatever it makes next year technically counts towards 2014 box office.

Depends how you want to count it really. Avatar, for example, was the highest grossing movie of 2009, but not in 2009.

[spizzer]

Depends how you want to count it really. Avatar, for example, was the highest grossing movie of 2009, but not in 2009.

 

Yup, and therefore it was the highest grossing movie IN 2010, but not of 2010.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2010&view=calendargross&view2=domestic&sort=gross&order=DESC&&p=.htm

[Harpospoke]

Yeah... no.  Catching Fire's doing fine.  You can't compare the daily runs of Catching Fire, Hunger Games, and Iron Man 3 in the manner you are.  They all released in completely different times of the year; one a spring release with break littered in between, one a pre-Thanksgiving weekend release going into the holidays and one a summer starter.  To stack them up against each other in the way you do is an apples to oranges to bananas comparison.

I kinda like reading it.   It will be fun to watch how it all works out on a daily basis.   A great way to see how different box office runs work.   If CF does make a comeback at some point and passes IM3, that is certainly worth watching.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I don't disagree with spizzer. But, should Catching Fire fall another 50% this weekend, Iron Man Three will have built a healthy $12.5M to $15M lead going into Tuesday. IM3 enjoyed an awesome Memorial Day Monday. But, CF will see really nice holiday receipts. No denying that. And, will likely surpass IM3. But, with a healthy lead going into the holiday inflated days, the race could be interesting. That's what I'm saying.

[narniadis]

Race is definitely interesting - but one should look at historical comps that match and not summer and or spring releases. Leads mean nothing in different times of the year.

[JohnnyGossamer]

^^^While I agree, films seem more and more frontloaded by the year... Even by the month. While the historical comparisons provide good footing, they're not as accurate as they once were. All that said, I expect CF to finish just under $415M and best IM3 and THG by about $5M.

[Ent]

I don't disagree with spizzer. But, should Catching Fire fall another 50% this weekend, Iron Man Three will have built a healthy $12.5M to $15M lead going into Tuesday. IM3 enjoyed an awesome Memorial Day Monday. But, CF will see really nice holiday receipts. No denying that. And, will likely surpass IM3. But, with a healthy lead going into the holiday inflated days, the race could be interesting. That's what I'm saying.

Here is the deal.

 

On weekend 5 IM3 reached $385.2 M.  CF is likely to finish somewhere between $367 - $370M.

 

2 weeks later, which corresponds to CF holliday seasons, IM3 finished with $399.7 M on weekend 7.  

 

So the question, is will CF be able to reach $400M (on weekend 7) at the end of the holliday seasons, meaning grossing $30+M after weekend 5 to have a decent shot to pass IM3 final gross ?

 

That's the question !

Edited December 12, 2013 by Ent

[spizzer]

^^^While I agree, films seem more and more frontloaded by the year... Even by the month. While the historical comparisons provide good footing, they're not as accurate as they once were. All that said, I expect CF to finish just under $415M and best IM3 and THG by about $5M.

 

I'm a bit confused as to where you're going with that statement.  A historical comparison in this case indicates that CF has actually been less frontloaded than its older YA counterparts in Potter and Twilight.

 

 

Catching Fire is looking at a 14-15M 4th weekend right now.  With 3.5M from Wed/Thurs, that puts it at 358.7M by Sunday.  From there, it needs needs a 4.35 multipler to take the 2013 domestic crown.

 

Multipliers from the 4th weekend:

 

NM: 4.67

DH1: 5.51

BD1: 3.81

BD2: 3.58

 

Thus far, I have CF's legs tracking ahead of DH1 (by 16.5% by OD multiplier as of today, or 7.5% by adjusted OW multilper), which had the smallest opening of the 4 films above, but the second highest total, and the strongest legs.  Take that for what its worth.

 

 

Note that of those films (all of which released in the same time period in the last 4 consecutive years), DH1 had the best early and late legs, and easily the best overall.  Multipler without midnights/previews:

 

NM: 2.32

BD1: 2.33

BD2: 2.37

DH1: 2.69

 

And CF has shown better legs so far than any of those!

 

Multiplier from OW minus previews after 19 days

 

NM: 1.98

BD1: 2.03

BD2: 2.05

DH1: 2.21

 

CF: 2.37(!!) 

 

That's 7.4% stronger than DH1, the best of the lot, and now consider that that number has been rising every single day barring two (one day it stayed flat, another it dropped by .3% on its 5th day of release).  I could use regression to determine where that % will land once CF finishes its run (which I can tell you now will be at right around 10%), but I have no motivation to invest the time and effort into doing so (especially considering its finals week).  

Edited December 12, 2013 by spizzer

[Dementeleus]

I can't speak for CF (since I'm not tracking it and its historical comps super-closely), but I'll offer this counter-argument:

 

GRAVITY had insane WOM. Fantastic reviews. For the first 30 days, it was strongly outpacing THE BLIND SIDE (another film with great WOM). But from 30 days onward BLIND SIDE quickly began to outpace GRAVITY and at the end of the day the 2013 Bullock movie will crawl past the '09 one, despite being $30m ahead at one point.

 

Now part of this is release schedule, sure... but I've noticed this year that studios are pulling their films from theaters sooner (either entirely or with fewer screens later in their runs). It remains to be seen whether that happens with CF, but I wouldn't count on its late legs being better than movies from a year or two ago.

[Rthmessiah]

Here is the deal.

 

On weekend 5 IM3 reached $385.2 M.  CF is likely to finish somewhere between $367 - $370M.

 

2 weeks later, which corresponds to CF holliday seasons, IM3 finished with $399.7 M on weekend 7.  

 

So the question, is will CF be able to reach $400M (on weekend 7) at the end of the holliday seasons, meaning grossing $30+M after weekend 5 to have a decent shot to pass IM3 final gross ?

 

That's the question !

 400m by at least end of wk7 is feasable could be slight less or more and ending 410 or higher not out of the question either see how the next couple weeks play out.

[spizzer]

I can't speak for CF (since I'm not tracking it and its historical comps super-closely), but I'll offer this counter-argument:

 

GRAVITY had insane WOM. Fantastic reviews. For the first 30 days, it was strongly outpacing THE BLIND SIDE (another film with great WOM). But from 30 days onward BLIND SIDE quickly began to outpace GRAVITY and at the end of the day the 2013 Bullock movie will crawl past the '09 one, despite being $30m ahead at one point.

 

Now part of this is release schedule, sure... but I've noticed this year that studios are pulling their films from theaters sooner (either entirely or with fewer screens later in their runs). It remains to be seen whether that happens with CF, but I wouldn't count on its late legs being better than movies from a year or two ago.

 

Gravity vs. Blind Side would make an interesting study.  The release dates would be the biggest factor I'd point to, Blind Side definitely had a better holiday advantage, but I do intend to look into that one a bit more.  

[lab276]

I can't speak for CF (since I'm not tracking it and its historical comps super-closely), but I'll offer this counter-argument: GRAVITY had insane WOM. Fantastic reviews. For the first 30 days, it was strongly outpacing THE BLIND SIDE (another film with great WOM). But from 30 days onward BLIND SIDE quickly began to outpace GRAVITY and at the end of the day the 2013 Bullock movie will crawl past the '09 one, despite being $30m ahead at one point. Now part of this is release schedule, sure... but I've noticed this year that studios are pulling their films from theaters sooner (either entirely or with fewer screens later in their runs). It remains to be seen whether that happens with CF, but I wouldn't count on its late legs being better than movies from a year or two ago.

In that case, the release schedule would be the main culprit and not just by a bit.

[Ent]

 400m by at least end of wk7 is feasable could be slight less or more and ending 410 or higher not out of the question either see how the next couple weeks play out.

Sure it's feasible but it's far from being a lock even with late legs at this time of the year.

 

Late legs usually put grosses on a flat stage from the previous week more than of a major increase or decrease.  CF will need to majorly increase daily to reach that 30+M  during hollyday seasons, meaning it will basicly need to have week 6 and week 7 bigger than week 5, not just flat, but bigger.

[John Marston]

CF reaching 400m depends on how hard it drops this weekend. If it drops has hard as Comingsoon.net predicts it might not reach that mark

[Dementeleus]

In that case, the release schedule would be the main culprit and not just by a bit.

 

Yes, I understand. The difference is really dramatic, though (like, 2:1), and that's not including BLIND SIDE's Christmas run, it just had Thanksgiving at the time I compared.

 

There are other cases as well. For example, PACIFIC RIM was solidly ahead of COWBOYS & ALIENS (by several million) and lost a ton of screens late in its run, to fall well under its pace.

[lab276]

Yes, I understand. The difference is really dramatic, though (like, 2:1), and that's not including BLIND SIDE's Christmas run, it just had Thanksgiving at the time I compared. There are other cases as well. For example, PACIFIC RIM was solidly ahead of COWBOYS & ALIENS (by several million) and lost a ton of screens late in its run, to fall well under its pace.

C&A was released later in the summer, so looking at when Pac Rim lost a whole bunch of theatres (week 5), Elysium, We're the Millers, Planes and Percy Jackson were released (combined gross that week 136.1m). In C&A's fifth week, the total amount made overall was just 137m.The competition was just more intense because it was earlier in the summer.