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CoolioD1

Weekend Estimates: The Hobbit - 73.6M | Frozen - 22.2M | Madea - 16M

By CoolioD1, in Numbers and Data

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.   :)

 

Let's wait for the next few weekends first. Could still be leggier than the first movie. It's not just about OWs, right?

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AdamKendall Box Office Gold

AdamKendall

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Posted (edited)

Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.   :)

Yep, looks like you might have nailed this one ... I know you and Jaime were on this under 275-280 stuff for a while.

 

I wanted to believe in 300 ... but in the last week, didn't feel likely given buzz.

Edited by Adam
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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

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Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.   :)

But 31.5-32.5 means its Friday business was 22.7-23.7m, meaning it was very close to the Friday business of the first. It's entirely possible it'll play just like AUJ from here on out.

 

Personally, I'm not sure it will (that cliffhanger is goddamned abrupt), but I can't preclude the possibility.

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted

Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.   :)

 

Every major movie needs someone posting ridiculously low numbers early on Friday. That will make the Friday numbers (even if they are "low" on an absolute scale) look like a success.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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Posted

Let's wait for the next few weekends first. Could still be leggier than the first movie. It's not just about OWs, right?

 

Of course it's not, but the multiplier on this is established.  I don't expect it to get a better multiplier than the first.  I'll give it a 3.6 like the first and if it opens to 74 mill, then that puts it at 266.  If you think it will be better received that the last then give it 3.8, and that puts it at 281.

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Spidey Freak Global Phenomenon

Spidey Freak

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Funny how this number is now good.  Because RTH posted a low end of 26 and it comes it at 31, it's good.  But it's still a significant drop from the first.  It's pretty much what many of predicted who said it would come in at about 275-280 mill.  So the number is in line what was predicted from people saying the gross would drop.   :)

 

Maybe it was Rth's scheme to deliberately post lower than low numbers so that people will be satisfied with the actual mediocre numbers! :P

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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Of course it's not, but the multiplier on this is established.  I don't expect it to get a better multiplier than the first.  I'll give it a 3.6 like the first and if it opens to 74 mill, then that puts it at 266.  If you think it will be better received that the last then give it 3.8, and that puts it at 281.

 

How about 75 M x 4. Ha ha.

 

280 M is fine.

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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

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Of course it's not, but the multiplier on this is established.  I don't expect it to get a better multiplier than the first.  I'll give it a 3.6 like the first and if it opens to 74 mill, then that puts it at 266.  If you think it will be better received that the last then give it 3.8, and that puts it at 281.

 

In terms of multipliers, I think it's more accurate to subtract midnights out and then add 'em back in. This removes any crazy frontloadedness over the first 24 hours and gives a better idea of the long-term multiplier.

 

TH1: 290/71 (subtracting 13 midnights) = 4.08x

TH2: 66 (assuming a 75m OW) x 4.08 = 269. Adding the midnights back in gives us 277-278. It's going to be close.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

In terms of multipliers, I think it's more accurate to subtract midnights out and then add 'em back in. This removes any crazy frontloadedness over the first 24 hours and gives a better idea of the long-term multiplier.

 

TH1: 290/71 (subtracting 13 midnights) = 4.08x

TH2: 66 (assuming a 75m OW) x 4.08 = 269. Adding the midnights back in gives us 277-278. It's going to be close.

 

Yes, it might be close but I personally think (and I could be wrong) that multipliers this time won't be as strong.  Call it a gut feeling.

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