Weekend Numbers Smaug 31.4, AM2 26.7 Frozen/AH 19.1

[druv10]

Every movie besides Jack Reacher and An Unexpected Journey got boosts from the previous weekends, so this is incorrect.

 

Also the year before Mission Impossible GP did not have an increase, Little Fockers did not increase the year Tangled had its increase, etc.

 

On Christmas weekend I expect 27-28M for DOS while Frozen should be around 23-24M so it has a shot at passing DOS on NY's weekend. 

[The Panda]

not every movie 

 

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=52&p=.htm

 

 

 

DOS should have a very small drop next weekend still. Even something like Star Trek Nemesis dropped only 8%

 

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2002&wknd=52&p=.htm

 

Yet Two Towers in that same weekend dropped 21% while everything else increased, and Two Towers had much better word of mouth than The Hobbit.  

 

Use an appropriate examples please.

Edited December 23, 2013 by The Panda

[John Marston]

Yet Two Towers in that same weekend dropped 21% while everything else increased, and Two Towers had much better word of mouth than The Hobbit.  

 

Us appropriate examples please.

 

 

that was Two Towers second weekend. Not third like DOS

[John Marston]

It most likely won't, but im rooting for it to, that would be a huge slap in the face for Jackson.

 

 

lol this kind of nonsense is getting tiring. In the end nobody is going to be very regretful over a trilogy that grossed 900-1 billion worldwide with each entry

[Dementeleus]

I very much doubt PJ cares at all whether FROZEN out grosses TH2 on a particular weekend.

[The Panda]

that was Two Towers second weekend. Not third like DOS

 

That's true, but it also had extraordinary word of mouth and was riding on good will from Fellowship.

 

DoS has decent WOM, plus there is a lot of new competition for it, and the family audiences (the biggest demo for the weekend) will flock to Frozen over DoS.  I'm not saying it's anywhere close to likely Frozen marks it down, but expect AUJ drop at minimum for Smaug, and Frozen will increase.

[Jandrew]

I feel it is a really smart move by FF7. It is in April making it the first big event movie of the summer. I think they will use the "Summer starts here" promotion again.

Im sure they will too but come on... "Summer stats here" on APRIL 10TH!? That just sounds so wrong, especially when the literal summer is June 21st. Oh, Hollywood...next the first Friday in October will be "the first event of the holiday season". I mean Halloween counts right?...

[The Panda]

I very much doubt PJ cares at all whether FROZEN out grosses TH2 on a particular weekend.

 

It would pretty much guarantee that Frozen would outgross Smaug by a long shot and show that WOM of TH2 is still lacking.

Edited December 23, 2013 by The Panda

[MovieMan89]

I very much doubt PJ cares at all whether FROZEN out grosses TH2 on a particular weekend.

I don't think PJ cares what the Hobbit movies gross at all at this point considering he likely already has a nice profit from them.

[John Marston]

It would pretty much guarantee that Frozen would outgross Smaug by a long shot and show that WOM of TH2 is still lacking.

 

 

no, all it shows is that DOS is not appealing to the family crowd that much

[Dementeleus]

It would pretty much guarantee that Frozen would outgross Smaug by a long shot and show that WOM of TH2 is still lacking.

And neither WB or PJ would give a shit. WB will keeping rolling in the giant amounts of money TH is generating for them, and PJ will be happy WB is footing his fun directing romp.The only people who care about this sort of thing are us, the box-office nerds.

[The Panda]

I don't think PJ cares what the Hobbit movies gross at all at this point considering he likely already has a nice profit from them.

 

That's true, but to see the second one have such a big decrease from the first similar to Attack of the Clones must have a little bit of a sting to it.  Maybe Jackson doesn't care, but if I was a director I wouldn't be all to thrilled to see the movie that I claimed, "Was the favorite one I had made", be performing so badly compared to my other ones in the franchise.

[lab276]

So what chance is there of Frozen doing better than DoS next weekend? Tangled had a 50% increase the weekend after Christmas while AUJ had a 13% drop, and DoS is currently dropping slightly harder than AUJ.  Plus, since DoS won't get the family audience (due to Frozen) it will negatively impact Smaug a bit (especially because it was advertised as darker, and thus less family friendly than the first). (For example I saw AUJ trailers on animated movies, but no DoS were on any family films for me)

Calendars were different in 2010 and 2012, so not comparable.

[The Panda]

no, all it shows is that DOS is not appealing to the family crowd that much

 

Exactly, that's why DoS had an A- cinemascore (which is from the midnight showing which is flocking with fanboys who will insta-love anything Middle Earth) compared to AUJ's A.

[John Marston]

Exactly, that's why DoS had an A- cinemascore (which is from the midnight showing which is flocking with fanboys who will insta-love anything Middle Earth) compared to AUJ's A.

 

 

 

I thought people said Cinemascores shouldn't be taken seriously since it was just five theaters?

[eXtacy]

Exactly, that's why DoS had an A- cinemascore (which is from the midnight showing which is flocking with fanboys who will insta-love anything Middle Earth) compared to AUJ's A.

 

Sounds like a hater to me

[Dementeleus]

That's true, but to see the second one have such a big decrease from the first similar to Attack of the Clones must have a little bit of a sting to it.  Maybe Jackson doesn't care, but if I was a director I wouldn't be all to thrilled to see the movie that I claimed, "Was the favorite one I had made", be performing so badly compared to my other ones in the franchise.

Most directors keep a fair distance from tracking the box-office of their movies. In PJ's case, he's probably too buried within production and post of part 3 to care, even if he was paying attention.

[The Panda]

I thought people said Cinemascores shouldn't be taken seriously since it was just five theaters?

 

I don't tale them overly seriously, but you can use them as reference points for films in the same franchise.

[The Panda]

Most directors keep a fair distance from tracking the box-office of their movies. In PJ's case, he's probably too buried within production and post of part 3 to care, even if he was paying attention.

 

I have a hard time believing most directors (especially greed hounds like Jackson) aren't a little curious to know how their movie is doing financially and critically, I'm not saying stalk the numbers but at least take notice of them.

[grim22]

The Italian poster for "12 Years A Slave". I guess promoting the big star makes sense