Box Office Fact or Fiction: Week 8 w/ The Panda, Sam & John Marston. Godzilla, Non-Stop, Noah & more

[grim22]

Welcome to the eight, and slightly late, edition of "Box Office Fact or Fiction". A feature where members of the Box Office forums are asked for their opinions on all things movies. 
 
First, the winner from last time, destroying the competition in the process CoolioD1. Congratulations, you win a BILLION internet points.
 
Please welcome the three contributors for this week's edition:

 

The Panda

Sam

 

Let's get it started.

 

1. Purge 2 will be an improvement over The Purge

 

 

The Panda: FICTION, the first Purge was hit that it was out of the interest of the concept, unfortunately for it it really didn't play well with most of the audience (It's poor word of mouth), and this should definitely have an affect on Purge: Anarchy.  While I do think it might be a tad bit more promising quality wise (it looks like in the trailer they are actually playing with the anarchy concept), the Purge 2 has shown no reason on how it can buck the horror movie trend of grossing less than the sequel.  Also, if you were talking about a quality improvement, despite me being semi-impressed with them playing with the concept this time, I don't see how it'll buck the other trend of horror sequels being worse than their originals.

 

Sam: FICTION,  If we're talking about quality, then I don't really have an opinion cause I haven't watched The Purge and haven't been keeping up with Purge 2 news. I take a shot in the dark and say 'fiction' on the virtue of it being a sequel. In terms of box office, I would say it'll drop, because of the same reason.

 

John Marston: FICTION, I have not seen The Purge. But horror sequels are usually never better than the original. I can't think of a single one. So I am not sure why The Purge 2 will change that. 

 

1 for 1

 

 

2. Guardians of the Galaxy will gross more than 200M at the box office

 

 

The Panda: FACT, although it being released in August (for now, I still am expecting Disney to movie it) makes me pause in concern, the trailer buzz has been fantastic.  With July looking to have weak holdovers with no break out blockbuster to really saturate the market, and strong ads from all the early May comic book movies, Guardians of the Galaxy is in a great position to become a hit, making a 200m range highly plausible because of the weak competition.

 

Sam: FICTION, From what was gather in social media, the trailer did its job and created very good buzz and interest. But I'm still unconvinced about the movie's BO potential to break out big. The biggest reason is the August release date. And while I personally think the movie's quality is looking promising, the genre and obscured content has me hesitate in saying it'll reach out to GA well enough to do bigger than what the original Cap and Thor did. Now, one could say that instead of the Cap/Thor comparison, why not IM1? I would say it's very plausible that the movie will be another winner for Marvel ala IM1, but that brings me back to the August release date, which comparing to the prime May opening spot that IM1 had, is a disadvantage for GOTG.

 

John Marston: FICTION, GOTG is the perfect movie to get overhyped on the internet, and IMO that is exactly what is happening.  Sci fi films can be a tough sell especially if you don't have any big names attached. The film looks rather similar to films like Galaxy Quest or Serenity and of course Galaxy Quest was only a modest hit and Serenity an outright bomb. The film has a rather comedic type vibe rather than looking more like a Star Wars film or a JJ Abrams Star Trek film. I can't see this movie doing amazingly well and many of the reasons people bring up are not that valid. The Marvel name doesn't really guarantee anything as we saw how Thor 2 struggled past 200m despite Thor and Loki both appearing in The Avengers. None of these characters have been seen before so the "Avengers affect" doesn't really apply. Apparently Thanos is in this but he only appeared for all but two seconds in a post credits and most people likely don't remember him. I hear a lot of hype about Rocket Raccoon but honestly based on what I have seen so far he just sounds like Bradley Cooper. No funny accent or anything. If anything a talking raccoon could turn off audiences rather than attract them, especially adult audiences as they may find it to look too childish and silly. In fact I am not seeing much appeal to older audiences or even female audiences in general. People also seem excited about James Gunn directing and say the film will be good (and I guess equating to good WOM) because of that but the fact his highest rated film is a gross out monster movie and none of his other films are that well regarded and tend to appeal to a niche type crowd (furthering the idea that GOTG is a more niche film). The biggest films he has been involved in are the Scooby Doo movies. And finally, while the film is trending well on Twitter, even if every single person who is talking about it turns up opening weekend, that may not even guarantee 10m in grosses. Overall, I would say GOTG will make 130-140m, which is actually an above average gross for this type of movie

 

1 for 2

 

3. Godzilla will be a mid-summer breakout hit

 

 

The Panda: FACT, a lot of people make Pacific Rim comparisons with Godzilla, but I just don't see them being overly true.  Godzilla is in a great opening spot and should be a strong alternative to people tired of comic books, it's also reached out to a wider audience with its buzz.  Also, unlike Pacific Rim, the marketing shows much more of the human/thriller aspect, and it has a recognizable monster that can make the audiences show up.  While anything above 250m could be questionable, I do think the early buzz shows strong breakout potential for Godzilla. 

 

Sam: FACT. This is a bit tricky cause how do you define "break out hit"? At what BO milestone does Godzilla have to hit in order to warrant the break out status? I'm unclear on that. But I'm willing to slip out of perspectives and just state my opinions, which is somewhat biased since I'm really looking forward to the movie and think it has the best teaser trailer of all summer movies so far. I think that Godzilla will break out. It has a pretty good release date, would be viewed by audience as counter-programming against the 2 superhero movies. If the quality is up to par, I think legs will be strong. Anecdotally (isn't it always?), the teaser got very good responses among my people with many of older individuals being interested in the return of the familiar iconic monster on the big screen. Those I see as some strong points in Godzilla's BO potential. 

 

John Marston: FICTION, It depends what you mean by break out hit. If you mean 200m+ then as of this moment I will have to say no. I am thinking more 160-170m. Reasons being is that while Godzilla is certainly being hyped, it is still a movie about a giant monster rampaging through a city and maybe fighting another monster. I think that puts a cap on the type of grosses a film like this can make, especially considering other than the Godzilla brand name there are no big actors or filmmakers attached. I also hear the film is going for the whole nuclear Holocaust type imagery of the original 1954 film which also makes the whole family appeal kind of in doubt. I would say this film will skew male by a decent amount and probably older. Marketing so far has been decent, but not spectacular. Some people mistakenly compare the film to the 1998 film saying that the 1998 film adjusts to a certain gross so the better 2014 version should at least match that gross but that is a wrong way to think. The 1998 version had one of the most elaborate marketing campaigns of its time (I believe it was the first film to have a trailer released a year in advance) and it was also marketed as the next film from the creators of Independence Day rather than just a "Godzilla movie". Matching that films adjusted gross seems next to impossible. Right now I will say domestically (as overseas grosses should be very strong), Godzilla will be a hit but not a break out hit. 

 

1 for 3

 

SWITCH #1!!!

 

 

4. "A Million Way to Die in the West" will be the highest grossing comedy of the summer

 

 

Sam: FICTION. There are many comedies in the summer of 2014 vying for the top spot, and out of them, in my opinion, the movies with highest chance are Tammy and 22 Jump Street. One could say that A Million Ways to Die in the West is also a contender base on the mega success of producer Seth Rogen's latest hit Ted as well as his existing fan base, and that would be a logical analysis. However, looking at other factors including release date, genre and competitions, AMWTDITW had quite some disadvantages to overcome. The weekend after Memorial Day weekend tend to produce weaker openings, and with the packed schedules of comedies during summer, good legs will be hard to achieve. The western genre is also rather niche, limiting the appeal of this movie to general audience. 

 

John Marston: FICTION, A Million Ways to Die in the West is a western,  which is a hit and miss genre at the box office. McFarlane's first film "Ted" had an appealing concept, a teddy bear coming to life and becoming vulgar (who didn't have a teddy bear when they grew up) as well as movie star Mark Wahlberg in the lead while I believe McFarlane himself is the lead of this movie. It also shares its opening weekend with Maleficent and while they are not the same genre, if that opens big it could easily hurt this film on opening weekend.  Summer 2014 has 22 Jump Street opening (just two weeks after this movie) and should build on the good will from the first to become the highest grossing comedy of the summer. 

 

The Panda: FICTION, while I do think A Million Ways to Die in the West will be a hit, I think there are way to many potential break out comedies for this western to come out on top.  I personally have my money on Tammy with it's great release date in a dry month (for some reason) and McCarthy's star power, however I would not be surprised if 22 Jump Street comes in close.  Other break out comedies not to be overlooked are Neighbors and Think Like a Man Too.  With all of this competition I think AMWtDitW will come right at the middle of the pack. 

 

2 for 4

 

5. Vampire Academy flopping shows that audiences are growing tired of YA adaptations. 

 

 

Sam: FICTION. Every genres had its own set of targeted audience. The YA franchise is the same; however, much like how it is in the book medium, not every movie adaptations can boast the same amount of pre-existing fans and popularity that Harry Potter, The Hunger Games or Twilight series have. Thus, in my opinion, measurement of success or failure of the YA adaptations are relative, one example can't be a representative for all, be it Vampire Academy flopping or The Hunger Games achieving incredible BO success. To speak fairly, the recent crop of YA adaptations had produced more misses than hits, with many of them showing that while their target audience turn up, they fail at expanding the interest to GA (the reception and quality of those movies are also big factors) But that seems to be a problem not only for YA movies but also for other genres, with last year's sci-fi slate being the prime example.

I'm not a follower or big fan of YA books/novels so my knowledge on the subject is limited, but base on the WOM of our forums' members, aside from Mockingjay Part I; Divergent, Maze Runner, Fault in Our Stars all have great potential in both quality and BO. And with the supposedly big backing from YA fans who want to keep the adaptations coming, we might be in for some surprises.

 

John Marston: FICTION, Vampire Academy flopping has more to do with that specific film itself rather than a problem with "YA adaptations". VA simply looked like a very poor movie from the trailers. Not only that but it looked very cheap as well. Like a CW TV show rather than a theatrical film. A "YA adaptation" with an appealing premise and strong marketing can likely still succeed.

 

The Panda: FICTION, as we have seen, the YA audience is very hard to tap into but once you do you break out big, there is no in between.  Honestly, there was no hype about VA nor interest from the YA audience, both Divergent and The Fault in Our Stars should succeed in tapping into the YA audience (I see the Fault in Our Stars being more likely given that it exceeded 10m trailer views in a couple weeks, plus the novel has been the best seller for a while).  We'll know if audiences are growing tired if both Divergent and the Fault in Our Stars fail to succeed.

 

3 for 5

 

 

The next question is user-submitted. Coming to us from 

 

6. Noah will be the biggest biblical film of 2014 

 

 

Sam: FICTION. The other contender is obviously Exodus, so looking at pros and cons of the two movies, this is a pretty hard one. Noah is a Darren Aronofsky-directed film, therefore, personally, I have more faith in its quality than Exodus. Ridley Scott is hit and miss and he's been mostly miss recently for me. Both movies have a respected cast ensemble, Noah more so relatively.

In terms of release dates, I would give the edge to Exodus, a biblical movie during Christmas season where legs can be developed is at a more ideal place than a March release (pretty far from Easter holiday) facing stronger competitions.

Noah have had some controversies regarding mixed to negative early screening reactions, but the publicity, while bad, might turn out to be working in its favor and generate interest/curiosity. We haven't heard anything of such from Exodus, understandably since the movie is still far out, but being a biblical movie, I wouldn't count out any controversies that will pop up in the future.

Overall, I think it'll be close. So not gonna lie, I opted for a coin toss. Exodus won out. Sorry Noah.

 

John Marston: FACT -  I honestly don't know too much about either film to really decide. Not to mention we haven't even seen any footage from Exodus. I am hearing that Noah could potentially anger certain people due to certain things that happen in the movie but I am not 100% sure about that. Right now though looking at Exodus, it has a holiday release date and 3D. But it is possible 3D might not help Exodus that much since it appeals more to a crowd that probably does not like gimmicks like 3D. Right now I will give the benefit to Noah since it is the first out of the gate and has Easter weekend to take advantage of and it seems to be getting more "attention" and notice.  It also has a strong marketing campaign so far with a Superbowl Pre Game ad. 

 

The Panda: FICTION, despite the Super Bowl pre-game ad it still hasn't overly resonated with the audiences.  Exodus is in a much better position for a break out and it has a more material to work with (so less of a chance of the Christian audience getting mad at additions to the story like what will likely happen with Noah).  Noah also has to deal with stronger competition (as well as another Christian flick coming out on Easter) coming out the week before Cap and coming out in a spot where most of the March releases will still be going strong.  Also, with a December release date for Exodus it is highly likely Ridley is looking for Oscars with his film, if Exodus does pull of an Oscar nom then it should be game over for Noah box office wise.

 

3 for 6

 

SWITCH #2!!!

 

7. "Non Stop" will earn over 100M at the domestic box office

 

 

John Marston: FICTION -  Non-Stop should make a respectable 80-90m thanks to a good marketing campaign (including a Superbowl Pre Game spot) and Neeson's continuing popularity with audiences in these kinds of roles but will likely not reach 100m thanks to the massive competition in March (Pretty much a new tentpole a week) and lack of any holidays to take advantage of. 

 

The Panda: FICTION, I agree with John in that it will definitely be a commendable hit, but the upcoming competition will end up killing its legs.  I would say it makes Olympus has Fallen numbers if all goes well, but I am more inclined to say it will make around 75-80m domestic, but it could easily surprise.

 

Sam: FACT. I just want to be different from the other guys

Okay, in all seriousness, I stick with my feeling and say Non-Stop will do over 100M. The trailer got good reactions and social buzz. And I do think that Liam Neeson is a draw, especially in action movies like this. He's fairly comparable to Denzel Washington in this regard I would say. I'm aware of the stiff competitions that would affect legs, but well, 100M seems within reach if the movie is solid enough IMO. 

 

3 for 7

 

8. You are interested in a Chip 'n' Dale movie in the style of Alvin and the Chipmunks

 

 

John Marston: FICTION -  while I fondly remember watching the "Chip n Dale Rescue Rangers" show when I was a kid, I see no reason to get excited about a Alvin and the Chipmunks style movie of Chip n Dale unless it gets great reviews saying it is a film for all ages like The Lego Movie or there is something endearing about its advertisements.

 

The Panda: FICTION, just the words "in the style of Alvin and the Chipmunks" makes me lose interest because those movies did not work at all.  It's Disney, so they could surprise, but the only instance of animation combined with live action I remember working is Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and I am willing to bet Chip n Dale will be more like the Smurfs or Chipmunks than Roger Rabbit.

 

Sam: FICTION. I honestly have no clue what Chip 'n' Dale is. Other people grew up with cartoons and classic animation shows, I grew up with Hong Kong's gangsters movies. So...yeah...

 

4 for 8

 

 

9. One among Pacific Rim 2, Prometheus 2, Dredd 2 and Ghostbusters 3 will actually get made in the next 3 years

 

John Marston: FACT -  Prometheus 2 should get made as the first film was a financial success and is part of the popular Alien franchise. Though it is likely the studio might want to do a sort of revamp (maybe not even call it Prometheus at all) and not release it a crowded month.

 

The Panda: FACT, while I wouldn't count on a Pacific Rim or Dredd sequel at all, I definitely think a new Alien movie in the next 3 years is very likely.  Ghostbusters is a possibility, but I'd suspect if they did it than it would be a reboot and not Ghostbusters 3.

 

Sam: FACT. Agree with the other two guys. It'll most likely be Prometheus 2 since the movie is pretty successful both financially and critically. Not really sure on the other three.

 

5 for 9

 

I have to say, this was one of the best set of answers I have seen. All 3 of them seemed to put a lot of thought and justification behind their answers. They ended up agreeing more than not.

 

Feel free to join in and provide your answers in this thread as well. Please do vote as to who you felt answered the questions better. Poll is at the top of this thread.

 

ALSO, please include any questions which you think should be asked to the next 3 contributors. I realize that most of the questions asked are based on what I follow and would like to incorporate more viewpoints into the feature. Please leave your probable questions as comments, or PM them to me and I will include them for the next edition.

 

I would like to thank Sam, The Panda and John Marston for taking time out to provide their opinions here. Thanks a lot.

 

I am looking for participants, please let me know if you would be interested in providing your opinions for future editions of this column.

 

Until Next Time.

Edited February 24, 2014 by grim22

[The Panda]

Part of me wants to vote for myself because I am highly conceited, but both Sam and John Marston gave some great responses, so I guess I will abstain from voting. 

[4815162342]

Sam has no idea what Chip "n' Dale is?

 

Ban???

 

 

 

Though making a live action Alvin style film of it is also ban-worthy.

[Michael Gary Scott]

I would sell my kidney to see Dredd 2 made

[Sam]

Sam has no idea what Chip "n' Dale is?Ban???Though making a live action Alvin style film of it is also ban-worthy.

I thought that with the way I am around this forum, you would already figure that my childhood is not exactly normal :PYeah, I know, it's sad really. I blame my parents entirely. But mostly my Dad. Yep, definitely my Dad.

[Empire]

All 3 were great, so it is hard for me to choose a winner. I think I am just not going to vote. 

[rukaio101]

I would sell my kidney to see Dredd 2 made

I already sent mine in to help fund Pacific Rim 2.

 

I was arrested shortly after, but I still think it was worth it.

[Goffe]

Sam has, by far, the best answers, voted for her.

[BadAtGender]

It was a tossup between Sam and John Marston. So I flipped a coin.

Edited February 24, 2014 by DamienRoc

[grim22]

It was a tossup between Sam and John Marston. So I flipped a coin.

 

Did this happen? 

 

[MrPink]

Did this happen? 

 

 

Call it, friend-o

 

What's the most you've ever lost on a coin toss?

[The Stingray]

Imo.

 

1. Panda

2. John Marston

3. N/A

4. Sam, JM, Panda

5. Sam, JM, Panda

6. Panda

7. N/A

8. N/A

9. Sam, Panda

 

JM: 3

Panda: 5

Sam: 3

 

Great job, guys!

[The Stingray]

Oh, the memories...

 

One of the earliest adopters of co-op.

 

[Blankments]

Sam and Panda tied, going with Panda because of the Noah cointoss