Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I actually wouldnt be surprised if the domestic/international split is even wider for this release, something like 20/80 split.

 

It won't be — not anywhere even remotely close, exchange rates completely preclude that possibility. At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (24/76, 25/75), but at worst it's going to be 30/70 or so.

Edited December 11, 2022 by hw64

[stuart360]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

no such thing as a puny bear so we can just write that one off

It shows the power of AVATAR when the 'puny bear' option, a option where there is litrally zero chance the gross will go that low, the option is still 1.56bil worldwide, which would be the biggest gross of the year lol.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, hw64 said:

 

It won't be — not anywhere even remotely close, exchange rates completely preclude that possibility. At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (26/74), but at worst it's going to be 30/70 or so.

I mean I wouldn't use absolutes when China is play, which is why I'm focusing on domestic vs OS-C-R

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

It won't be — not anywhere even remotely close, exchange rates completely preclude that possibility. At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (26/74), but at worst it's going to be 30/70 or so.

Well 26/74 is pretty close to 20/80, and even with the things going against A2, i still feel that this could blow up beyond imagination internationally. I mean its quite possible that the film makes 1bil in China alone, assuming no tampering by the governmet.

 

Besides i wasnt predicitng a 20/80 split, i just said i wouldnt be surprised.

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I mean I wouldn't use absolutes when China is play, which is why I'm focusing on domestic vs OS-C-R

 

I'm very confident about it.

 

If you're looking at 20/80 then you need both a relative domestic underperformance (~$700m), $1.7b+ OS-C (pretty much an Avatar-equivalent performance) and $900m+ in China, which is completely out of the question not only because of the market conditions, but also because it would require Avatar 2 to significantly exceed The Battle at Lake Changjin in local currency gross.

Edited December 11, 2022 by hw64

[Andreas]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.

 

Hyper Bull Case

1150 - 850 - 1900

 

Bull Case 

900 - 700 - 1600

 

Base Case

750 - 550 - 1300

 

Bear Case 

625 - 400 - 1050 

If anything, DOM could bring this movie below TFA & IW WW.

Going by the current pre-sales in the US, under $625M DOM seems very possible.

[Marek the Jedi]

ahhh that will be big fun for several coming weeks  to watch B.O. madness

I might not be super optimistic about super big box office score for Avatar 2!

but I can't wait to see it! I just hope that B.O. will be big enough so James can finish all remaining parts!

let's break some records
Marek

[stuart360]

Guys like IronJimbo says, be careful with the absolutes, especially when trying to 'correct' other peoples opinions.

The film isnt out yet, the film could make 1bil worldwide, or 5bil worldwide, no one knows yet, and no one knows better than anyone else, especially with this films potential.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Andreas said:

Going by the current pre-sales in the US, under $625M DOM seems very possible.

 

We don't have any PS numbers beyond opening weekend and nothing in the opening weekend tracking suggests a domestic total one way or the other. Anything beyond an OW prediction is merely speculation.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Andreas said:

If anything, DOM could bring this movie below TFA & IW WW.

Going by the current pre-sales in the US, under $625M DOM seems very possible.

Hah that is highly highly unlikely. Lol

Top pridicts are at 750-1b plus domestic.

[stuart360]

Also there is more to the world than the US, which is why i mostly talk about the WW gross.

I dont think it will but i wouldnt be surprised if the film gross less in the US than the first, but i'm also sure international will be bigger.

 

I just feel whatever side you're on, whatever you feel about this film, i just cant see how 2.5bil WW isnt already locked.

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys like IronJimbo says, be careful with the absolutes, especially when trying to 'correct' other peoples opinions.

The film isnt out yet, the film could make 1bil worldwide, or 5bil worldwide, no one knows yet, and no one knows better than anyone else, especially with this films potential.

 

 

Well put and if just a small portion of our Titanic and Avatar fan base show up. Goodness Titanic adjusted domestic run could be in sight.

 

How do you like that scenario😅. Haters would lose their minds seeing a domestic tally 500m over FA. 

 

" Lets Get it Done"

 

Avatar 2 becomes the new domestic and worldwide king!!

[Tokugennumataka]

10 minutes ago, Andreas said:

If anything, DOM could bring this movie below TFA & IW WW.

Going by the current pre-sales in the US, under $625M DOM seems very possible.

I mean it could do just 6.5-7x IM and still have fantastic legs, like TGM. 

[Andreas]

5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

We don't have any PS numbers beyond opening weekend and nothing in the opening weekend tracking suggests a domestic total one way or the other. Anything beyond an OW prediction is merely speculation.

And that underlines the fact that $625M as a minimum is also just speculation. I find it too much for the Bear Case.

If it had been any other film, I don't know if anyone would've expected a minimum of $625M from this movie's domestic run.

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Also there is more to the world than the US, which is why i mostly talk about the WW gross.

I dont think it will but i wouldnt be surprised if the film gross less in the US than the first, but i'm also sure international will be bigger.

 

I just feel whatever side you're on, whatever you feel about this film, i just cant see how 2.5bil WW isnt already locked.

Shoot seeing posts of people showing purchases of 5-6 tickets. Domestic terror and obliteration of mere mortal behemoths may surprise even us brother Stuart. I'm stratching my head at these laugh absolutes on Avatar 2. Did they forget Titanic fans are coming to support this domestically as well as well as most of the Marvel and DC movie crowd.

Just wait.  💪💪🗡🗡

 

" Pandorian fans I see and feel You!

 

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I'm very confident about it.

 

If you're looking at 20/80 then you need both a relative domestic underperformance (~$700m), $1.7b+ OS-C (pretty much an Avatar-equivalent performance) and $900m+ in China, which is completely out of the question not only because of the market conditions, but also because it would require Avatar 2 to significantly exceed The Battle at Lake Changjin in local currency gross.

 

The absolute I was reffering to was

"At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73"

 

Using your $700m Domestic, then going with a more reasonable OS-C of $1400m, it would only need $550m from China to get up to 26/74

[Sheldon Cr]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Also there is more to the world than the US, which is why i mostly talk about the WW gross.

I dont think it will but i wouldnt be surprised if the film gross less in the US than the first, but i'm also sure international will be bigger.

 

I just feel whatever side you're on, whatever you feel about this film, i just cant see how 2.5bil WW isnt already locked.

Shoot perhaps 3b WW is a lock now that China is nearing 80-90 operation range with the full blessing of it's president to run for a long time.

Imagine if the president who is a fan and loves Jim's work allows this to run past 1billy.

 

They don't get films were just living on Avatars playground.

Now Avatar 2 returns to show just how powerful the wake of this movie returning truly is.

 

Wonder where the Under Black Adam and Dr Strange 2 crowd went btw.😎

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

The absolute I was reffering to was

"At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73"

 

Using your $700m Domestic, then going with a more reasonable OS-C of $1400m, it would only need $550m from China to get up to 26/74

Already looking like our 190-205 plus OW is happening. Next a multiplier of 6.1 Brother Jimbo..

 

😉

Edited December 11, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Shoot perhaps 3b WW is a lock now that China is nearing 80-90 operation range with the full blessing of it's president to run for a long time.

Imagine if the president who is a fan and loves Jim's work allows this to run past 1billy.

 

They don't get films were just living on Avatars playground.

Now Avatar 2 returns to show just how powerful the wake of this movie returning truly is.

 

Wonder where the Under Black Adam and Dr Strange 2 crowd went btw.😎

 

800mil US, 800mil China, 1.5bil rest of the world = 3.1bil total.

None of those numbers are out of the question.

 

Tracking in the US has the OW in the 160-200mil range, and would only need 4-4.5x legs to get to 800mil.

 

Predictions out of China are around 200mil OW, and if it hits 200mil then 800mil is happening imo.

 

And 1.5bil for the rest of the world is more than possible.

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[Sheldon Cr]

31 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

ahhh that will be big fun for several coming weeks  to watch B.O. madness

I might not be super optimistic about super big box office score for Avatar 2!

but I can't wait to see it! I just hope that B.O. will be big enough so James can finish all remaining parts!

let's break some records
Marek

Hello brother Jedi..Its KAL.  Loving the excitement as we finally Return to Pandora. It's been a long long wait. How are you man?🔥🗡

I feel something special will happen on this one. I cant wait.

 

Record breaking Runs coming up!