The Dark Knight Rises OS Discussion Thread/700M+ OS CLUB

[druv10]

I don't think it can get top 5. I will be very happy if it can reach POTC2's $1.066 billion for #7 all-time. Of course, Hobbit will cruise past it later this year.

I'm going to be happy with anything over 1B but it can definitely get to 1.123B WW of TF3. It's going to be over 100M higher than TF3 domestically and just needs to be around 670M OS to get to top 5. I'm not saying it will but it has a shot and considering it's not in 3D and that makes it even more impressive. :)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I'm going to be happy with anything over 1B but it can definitely get to 1.123B WW of TF3. It's going to be over 100M higher than TF3 domestically and just needs to be around 670M OS to get to top 5. I'm not saying it will but it has a shot and considering it's not in 3D and that makes it even more impressive. :)

Agree. Fake said 580M without China. So only needs 90M from China to outdo TF3 WW.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

For reference:

It is said that Jason Statham's B movie The Mechanic just did $7M last weekend in China. That movie opened to $11.4M DOM 17 months ago. Means it opened 60+% in China compared with DOM. Its OS total before China opened is only 22M with 8M from Russia, which is its current biggest OS market. China alone will make it another 17M or so.

And people think TDKR is gonna do only 70M in China ???

[redfirebird2008]

And people think TDKR is gonna do only 70M in China ???

With Spidey opening at the same time, yes. They're targeting the same audience and it'll hurt both of them.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

With Spidey opening at the same time, yes. They're targeting the same audience and it'll hurt both of them.

Spidey will get hurt the most. TDKR (8.27) will steal its (8.28) thunder and Prometheus (9.3) will steal its 3D screens.Another reference:POTC4 (5.25) 72MKFP2 (5.30) 100M

[Fake]

This thread has grown 15 pages in the last 8 hours! What happened?

[MrPink]

This thread has grown 15 pages in the last 8 hours! What happened?

Nothing particularly relevant to the thread. Trust me, don't dig it back up.

[Olive]

Nothing particularly relevant to the thread. Trust me, don't dig it back up.

it must be iJack's nonsenses, I gave up checking those pages.

[Fake]

Nothing particularly relevant to the thread. Trust me, don't dig it back up.

I wasn't going to. 3-4 pages I can read, not 15.

[druv10]

it must be iJack's nonsenses, I gave up checking those pages.

iJack contributed 4-5 pages, rest was because of JackO.

[Fake]

I see these numbers as perfectly plausible (on the high end though):DOM: 460MChina: 90MRest of OS: 590MTotal: 1140MSo getting #5 all-time is still a decent probability.

[Olive]

I see these numbers as perfectly plausible (on the high end though):DOM: 460MChina: 90MRest of OS: 590MTotal: 1140MSo getting #5 all-time is still a decent probability.

I agree with you, Fake.It should end up 1.15 billion or so worldwide, #5 all time until Hobbit comes out.

[Fake]

I agree with you, Fake.It should end up 1.15 billion or so worldwide, #5 all time until Hobbit comes out.

or even after Hobbit.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

or even after Hobbit.

Of course, until 30 days after Hobbit comes out.

[Magic]

Just read the last 15 pages...

[Fake]

Of course, until 30 days after Hobbit comes out.

The world may end by then.

[peludo]

It can outgross TF3. It's not locked but it has quite chances. I think it can get about 580 OS without China. Maybe China will add another 80 million, so we would have 660. And I think TDKR is showing very good legs domestically, so maybe 450 can be low and reach 460-465. That would sum 1.12-1.125 billion. It will be a very interesting fight.

[vc2002]

Huge internet hype is always good sign, especially for Hollywood movies. Great internet hype before releases turned into huge box office: TF3, Titanic 3D.Movies with average internet buzz can do BIG at box office but the ones with huge internet buzz always do HUGE too. At least, so far no miss.

Internet hype didnt translate into huge bo performance of TF3 and Titanic 3D. They did big businesses because of their insane popularity in real life. So far there's no evidence of TDK being THAT popular in real life, yet. Also it's necessary to mention that even on the internet, unlike Titanic, TDK is only male-friendly. How to sell a film about a guy in a tight suit to the Chinese female audience is a question, and you need female audience to make $100m.There's a difference between "huge" and $100m, especially for a 2D film. MI4 proves $100m is possible for a 2D film, but keep in mind that Tom Cruis is like a household name in CHina, and MI is also a well-known brand. Not to mention that now we know TDKR is gonna have much bigger competition than MI4 had.Right now I'm predicting Inception's type of performance, and that's already HUGE. I'm not ruling out $100m completely, but I'd say the chance's close to none. Edited August 6, 2012 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Internet hype didnt translate into huge bo performance of TF3 and Titanic 3D. They did big businesses because of their insane popularity in real life. So far there's no evidence of TDK being THAT popular in real life, yet. Also it's necessary to mention that even on the internet, unlike Titanic, TDK is only male-friendly. How to sell a film about a guy in a tight suit to the Chinese female audience is a question, and you need female audience to make $100m.

There's a difference between "huge" and $100m, especially for a 2D film. MI4 proves $100m is possible for a 2D film, but keep in mind that Tom Cruis is like a household name in CHina, and MI is also a well-known brand. Not to mention that now we know TDKR is gonna have much bigger competition than MI4 had.

Right now I'm predicting Inception's type of performance, and that's already HUGE. I'm not ruling out $100m completely, but I'd say the chance's close to none.

Sounds like TF3 is female-friendly ...

And so is Nolan now. (dang, I hate to say this ...)

Yeah, but TDKR will open much biggger though with worse legs.

We will see.

[vc2002]

Sounds like TF3 is female-friendly ...

And so is Nolan now. (dang, I hate to say this ...)

Yeah, but TDKR will open much biggger though with worse legs.

We will see.

TF3 doesnt have to be. The first two both got released in China, and TF is as well-know in China as Batman in the US (probably even more).

We shouldnt count too much on how the director's popularity translates into actual ticket sales. Inception had a 60m OW, and that film was RIGHT after Nolan did TDK. And Nolan is much more popular in the US than in China.

Edited August 6, 2012 by vc2002