The Disney Thread | Happy 90th to Donald Duck!

[bryaalre]

27 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Doesn't sound right but I haven't thought about it much. What's the math there?

I skimmed the youtube video where he shows off his charts and numbers and he only does the last 8 movies not 11.

 

Quick summary - Movie, Cost, Theatrical Revenue, Profit/Loss

 

1. Lightyear - $300M, $108M, -$192M
2. Thor 4 - $400M, $368M, -$32M
3. Strange World - $200M, $34M, -$166M
4. BPWF - $400M, $418M, $18M
5. AM3 - $350M, $217M, -$133M
6. GotG3 - $400M, $378M, -$22M
7. TLM - $400M, $271M, -$129M
8. Elemental - $300M, $63M, -$237M

Based on his numbers, the only movie currently profitable out of the last 8 Disney movies is BPWF, though Thor 4 and GotG3 are close.

 

Final Totals are $2.75B in production and advertising and $1.86B in theatrical revenue for a loss of $890M at the box office over those last 8 movies.

Edited June 29, 2023 by bryaalre

[PlatnumRoyce]

7 hours ago, grey ghost said:

So an analyst said that Disney lost 900m from their last 11 movies and it kinda went viral.

 

What do ya'll think?

it just zeroed out post-theatrical revenue versus marketing and budget (with an extra billion outside of that headline in opportunity costs for foregone streaming revenue from licensing to other parties). I'm sure there's an argument to be made about why D+ money should go to zero but that Valiant Renegade video does more than that by zeroing out everything. 

Just look at home video:
 

Look at MediaPlayNews' vague estimates of DVD/Blu-Ray sales for e.g. Thor 4 - https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Thor-Love-and-Thunder-(2022\)#tab=video-sales. It has $15M domestic (or ~12M in net revenue to Disney). That's low but it's also far from zero. You actually need to make a good faith stab at estimating this stuff instead of just ignoring it.  Literally just doing that (and doubling for INT - no idea how good that would be), sees revenue jump by 8% for Thor 4. Just assuming "physical home video is 8% of theatrical rentals" means an increase of $150M in revenue (so ~750M in losses instead of 900M). That's real money that would meaningfully change this type of profit/loss estimate. (Deadline's estimate if $140M in home video (or $105M in net profits) which presumably includes their estimates for digital sales. That increases revenue by 25%) 

Applying that gives you $465M which would make his claim of losses cut in half to $425M. I don't think you should do this but if you're going to zero out TV + streaming revenue, this seems like a better number. 
 

Edited June 29, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[JustLurking]

Just now, bryaalre said:

I skimmed the youtube video where he shows off his charts and numbers and he only does the last 8 movies not 11.

 

Quick summary - Movie, Cost, Theatrical Revenue, Profit/Loss

 

1. Lightyear - $300M, $108M, -$192M
2. Thor 4 - $400M, $368M, -$32M
3. Strange World - $200M, $34M, -$166M
4. BPWF - $400M, $418M, $18M
5. AM3 - $350M, $217M, -$133M
6. GotG3 - $400M, $378M, -$22M
7. TLM - $400M, $271M, -$129M
8. Elemental - $300M, $63M, -$237M

Based on his numbers, the only movie currently profitable out of the last 8 Disney movies is BPWF, though Thor 4 and GotG3 are close.

Yeah this is definitely bs lol. Not only do his numbers not make sense on a lot of these but he's also blatantly excluding avatar (and if you're going to claim specific losses, then acting like films have no shelf life after they leave theaters is dumb).

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Yeah this is definitely bs lol. Not only do his numbers not make sense on a lot of these but he's also blatantly excluding avatar (and if you're going to claim specific losses, then acting like films have no shelf life after they leave theaters is dumb).

FWIW he argued Avatar was a lightstream film that Disney only distributed. 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, JustLurking said:

Yeah this is definitely bs lol. Not only do his numbers not make sense on a lot of these but he's also blatantly excluding avatar (and if you're going to claim specific losses, then acting like films have no shelf life after they leave theaters is dumb).

 

We need to take a serious ass look at how chuds go out of their way to play armchair box office analysts these days. I never seen as much disinformation thrown around regarding profits as we see right now, and the endgame of why they make these claims is obvious. 
 

And by serious look I mean that BOT should be more proficient against this kind of discourse. It’s impossible to discuss these things without mentioning the elephant in the room: these baseless claims are politically motivated and Disney was turned on this boogeyman, this hill that chuds use as a battleground. It has poisoned box office and films reception discussions and it’s not getting better with no real pushback. 

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

So an analyst said that Disney lost 900m from their last 11 movies and it kinda went viral.

 

What do ya'll think?

Nope.

Elemental- Loss 100M

TLM- 0 loss/profit

GOTG3- 150M profit

Ant-Man3- 0 loss/profit

Avatar 2- 531M profit

Strange world- 197m loss

BP2- 259M profit

Thor 4- 103m profit

Lightyear- 106M loss

MoM- 284m profit

Total profit 924m

[ZattMurdock]

For a less serious and exciting subject, I didn’t know that I needed a Rogers musical before we got a glimpse of that on Hawkeye. Also please release the whole thing on Disney+ eventually, thanks.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[filmlover]

For those who didn't get to see these classics in theaters when they were first released, now's your chance!

 

AMC is participating too.

[robertman2]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

For those who didn't get to see these classics in theaters when they were first released, now's your chance!

 

AMC is participating too.

Is it only Cinemark and AMC, or are local theaters able to do it too?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Is it only Cinemark and AMC, or are local theaters able to do it too?

Not sure. It's a two week run for each movie and apparently at only select theaters at those chains.

[AniNate]

I'm frustrated they're not showing any of the Pixar movies that never got a theatrical bout

[Willowra]

Doctor Strange: MoM budget is $295m as per Disney.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/?sh=ff3150b320ba

 

[dobrevv]

4 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Doctor Strange: MoM budget is $295m as per Disney.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/01/disney-reveals-doctor-strange-2-cost-100-million-more-than-its-estimated-budget/?sh=ff3150b320ba

they really need to start lowering those budgets 

[Willowra]

10 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

they really need to start lowering those budgets 

Trades need to reach consensus on whether they want to report the budget figure given by Disney or another studio, which includes participation, residuals, and other costs, or whether they want to report just the production budget. Because in the case of Indiana Jones 5, Variety is reporting that its budget is $295m, which was actually given by Disney in its annual filings, just like this MoM budget figure.

[ZattMurdock]

Quote

Disney, despite stumbling with Indiana Jones and Elemental, is leading all studios at the summer box office so far with an estimated $811M per Deadline calculations and from a diverse slate that includes 20th Century Studios fare and tentpoles. That’s more than the $620M combined that Universal and Sony have pulled in for the beach season. Disney is providing a diverse slate of theatrical releases to cinemas post-pandemic, and they’re largely being very good about long windows (none of this 17-days to Disney+ stuff); all this despite the beating they took for going theatrical day-and-date on their streaming service back in summer 2021 under the CEO Bob Chapek era.

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

On 7/1/2023 at 11:01 AM, Willowra said:

Trades need to reach consensus on whether they want to report the budget figure given by Disney or another studio, which includes participation, residuals, and other costs, or whether they want to report just the production budget. Because in the case of Indiana Jones 5, Variety is reporting that its budget is $295m, which was actually given by Disney in its annual filings, just like this MoM budget figure.

How could this include residuals and participations when those are yet to be paid out? Wouldn't those be added on top of the gross (and an additional tax credit be given to Disney)?

[Potiki]

23 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

(none of this 17-days to Disney+ stuff)

When did they ever do this? Is he conflating the Universal/WB PVOD window with Disney+ windows which at minimum had been 30 days and that was only 2 titles most had 45 days and this year it has been at 90+ days for Disney+ with PVOD at around 60-75 days. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Potiki said:

When did they ever do this? Is he conflating the Universal/WB PVOD window with Disney+ windows which at minimum had been 30 days and that was only 2 titles most had 45 days and this year it has been at 90+ days for Disney+ with PVOD at around 60-75 days. 

It there was some at the middle of the pandemic iirc.

[Potiki]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It there was some at the middle of the pandemic iirc.

No was never that short, originally they had the Premiere Access which was day and date for a charge but then shifted back to 45 days starting with Free Guy internationally/Shang-Chi worldwide and 30 days for Encanto and Strange World which had thanksgiving releases theatrically and Christmas releases on Disney+. 

 

Only film that had a 2 week window to digital (as in Apple, Amazon storefronts) was Onward but that didn't come to Disney+ for 28 days after theatrical releases but if they are including that it is a huge outlier due to the world and cinemas essentially shutting down. 

[Willowra]

17 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

How could this include residuals and participations when those are yet to be paid out? Wouldn't those be added on top of the gross (and an additional tax credit be given to Disney)?

Included costs

• UK-qualifying production expenditure is defined as expenditure ‘used or consumed’ in the UK i.e. costs incurred by the FPC on filming activities (pre-production, principal photography, visual effects and post production) that take place within the UK, irrespective of the nationality of the persons carrying out the activity.
• Above-the-line, including actors and directors, is included, irrespective of nationality.
• Core expenditure incurred at a later stage on a project where there are ‘residuals’ to be paid will attract further relief; for example further payments to actors and directors.

https://britishfilmcommission.org.uk/plan-your-production/tax-reliefs/