Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

[KATCH-2D2]

there is a 100 percent guarantee that there will be a Transformers 5. This Is a reboot so Paramount knew it would drop domestically. but I'm sure there will be plenty happy with the billion dollars that they are going to rake in worldwide. Transformers 5 is locked and loaded.

I think they'd expect it to drop but not this much.

 

And this is just my inconsiderate self-centric rant, but why do people just happen to have common sense to ignore TF movie just NOW when I don't want them too. After watching TF2 I didn't give a damn whether TF3 would ever happen but people didn't give their middle finger to that crap so TF3 happened. After TF3 I thought I wouldn't care if the story end there because I thought there's no where else for the story to go but people still insisted on watching it so TF4 happened.

 

But now after watching TF4, and even though it's still a goddamn mess of a movie, it's way better than the last 2 and I felt like it's a perfect set up to expand TF universe to something even more epic & ground-breaking. Just THIS ONCE I hope general movie goers would do what they always did when it came to this franchise and turn off your critical judgment for the sake of cheap thrills, they let me down.

 

If only this kind of drop happened 5 years ago I'd have joined in with the cool crowd and celebrate it downfall. Now I can't. Damn you people for upping your standard a little too late.

 

/end of rant.

Edited June 29, 2014 by KATCH 22

[RthDeadWov]

tell that to Firedeep. He thinks studios get as much in china as the rest. I remember you giving a break up on how studios do in various markets. Can you post them again.

oh christ no, they get about 10% more these days but still a film doing say around 100-150m studios aren't getting any or much more than other major markets, if its under 100m in China and the rest of the world is doing well with film definetly not, of cause film rentals is calculated on Net BO not GBO, but from memory not much tax is taken off China GBO

[Ethan Hunt]

How on earth is that a good comparison given TF2 had already burned off 3 full days of demand by its first saturday? TF2 would have had a 160m+ OW easily if it had opened on Friday given what its massive total through its first weekend was.

So you are suggesting that it will do better than 250. 

[MovieMan89]

So you are suggesting that it will do better than 250. 

I'm suggesting TF2 wouldn't have had a multi of much more than 2.4x either if it had opened on a Friday. And the last 5 years have not been kind to summer multis. They've gotten much worse on average since even then.

Edited June 29, 2014 by MovieMan89

[Fake]

How on earth is that a good comparison given TF2 had already burned off 3 full days of demand by its first saturday? TF2 would have had a 160m+ OW easily if it had opened on Friday given what its massive total through its first weekend was.

That's why I said a bit harder.

[baumer]

obviously rth knows way more about the business then I do but if paramount is investing or accepting that much investment money from Chinese interests is it possible that they might get more than usual in China? I, like many of you have known for awhile that Studios get less of the take in China but there are all kinds of Hollywood studios now pandering to the Chinese market. So the money must be good in some ways or else they really wouldn't give a s*** about them.

[keysersoze123]

So you are suggesting that it will do better than 250. 

 

Nah. His take is TF2 saturday was muted bcos of wednesday release. So its overall run will do better when extrapolating from its saturday BO. I am sure we will continue to see it on sunday and going forward. There is no way TF4 will have legs close to TF2. Simple fact is movies are more frontloaded these days. Because of saturated release, we see harsh 2nd weekend drops. We will see next weekend even with 4th july, it will drop 60%+. Then apes will again hit it hard. 

[MovieMan89]

obviously rth knows way more about the business then I do but if paramount is investing or accepting that much investment money from Chinese interests is it possible that they might get more than usual in China? I, like many of you have known for awhile that Studios get less of the take in China but there are all kinds of Hollywood studios now pandering to the Chinese market. So the money must be good in some ways or else they really wouldn't give a s*** about them.

I think at this point it's profitable even if they don't have huge stake in it. It's like how Bill Gates kids will only get a miniscule percentage of his fortune, but that's still a ridiculous amount of money. The China market is so hot right now I'm sure Hollywood studios want any chunk of it they can get.

[keysersoze123]

obviously rth knows way more about the business then I do but if paramount is investing or accepting that much investment money from Chinese interests is it possible that they might get more than usual in China? I, like many of you have known for awhile that Studios get less of the take in China but there are all kinds of Hollywood studios now pandering to the Chinese market. So the money must be good in some ways or else they really wouldn't give a s*** about them.

 

From Raw numbers perspective its still great. 250M in china gross would mean 62.5M rental for studio. I dont think any other market will come close for Paramount. Plus its not as if this is costing them that much more. Marketing is free in china as well. Plus its one of the few major markets that still has significant room to grow as it has 1.25B population and hollywood movies do as well or better than local movies. In comparison india has similar population but hollywood movies are significantly smaller than local movies. 

[Ethan Hunt]

Nah. His take is TF2 saturday was muted bcos of wednesday release. So its overall run will do better when extrapolating from its saturday BO. I am sure we will continue to see it on sunday and going forward. There is no way TF4 will have legs close to TF2. Simple fact is movies are more frontloaded these days. Because of saturated release, we see harsh 2nd weekend drops. We will see next weekend even with 4th july, it will drop 60%+. Then apes will again hit it hard. 

What is the total for the weekend looking like at this point? 

[keysersoze123]

What is the total for the weekend looking like at this point? 

 

I am thinking studio will estimate 97-98M and it will fall to 96M with actuals. 

[RthDeadWov]

obviously rth knows way more about the business then I do but if paramount is investing or accepting that much investment money from Chinese interests is it possible that they might get more than usual in China? I, like many of you have known for awhile that Studios get less of the take in China but there are all kinds of Hollywood studios now pandering to the Chinese market. So the money must be good in some ways or else they really wouldn't give a s*** about them.

The Max they will be getting is 25% of the net which given what the film could ultimately gross there will still be a lot of money,what they use to get back was as low as 13-15%

[Ethan Hunt]

I am thinking studio will estimate 97-98M and it will fall to 96M with actuals. 

Danm I was hoping this would do over 100M. 

[CJohn]

Zeus descended on to Earth, showed that he was the one true god, and provided us with the secrets of the universe. Unfortunately CJohn was the only one who saw what Zeus wrote, and didn't want anyone else to see it, so he deleted all the posts leading up to and after Zeus's return. CJohn is planning his path to world domination right now.

Some of the shit I see written here, oh you guys... 

[baumer]

What is the total for the weekend looking like at this point?

98M would be my guess.

[MovieMan89]

Nah. His take is TF2 saturday was muted bcos of wednesday release. So its overall run will do better when extrapolating from its saturday BO. I am sure we will continue to see it on sunday and going forward. There is no way TF4 will have legs close to TF2. Simple fact is movies are more frontloaded these days. Because of saturated release, we see harsh 2nd weekend drops. We will see next weekend even with 4th july, it will drop 60%+. Then apes will again hit it hard. 

Exactly. A sub 60% drop next weekend might happen just because the 4th falls on Friday, but I still won't bet on it. Friday will be inflated, but Saturday will be deflated so it kind of balances out. It's competing with three movies that take away important demos (Tammy for females, DUFE for teens, and Echo for kids). Even if none of those do great, all three combined are bound to eat at its audience. And then it will have a harsh drop when Apes hits the next weekend. So I don't see why there's opportunity for great legs. Unless it does have amazing week days.

[Ethan Hunt]

 So I have started to read Ender's Game recently and it is very different from the movie. I am about 5/8 of the way throught the book. Ender is a far different character in the book then he was in the movie. In the book he is pretty much an asshole. There are also some pretty intresting subplots that were left out of the movie.

[CJohn]

My wife is watching some movie where Cameron Diaz is...Having sex with a car? Wtf is this?

The Counselor. I saw that in theaters. With my mom. Yeah...

[baumer]

The Counselor....where the badguys talk more shit than the Architect from Reloaded.

[lab276]

Exactly. A sub 60% drop next weekend might happen just because the 4th falls on Friday, but I still won't bet on it. Friday will be inflated, but Saturday will be deflated so it kind of balances out. It's competing with three movies that take away important demos (Tammy for females, DUFE for teens, and Echo for kids). Even if none of those do great, all three combined are bound to eat at its audience. And then it will have a harsh drop when Apes hits the next weekend. So I don't see why there's opportunity for great legs. Unless it does have amazing week days.

Friday will be deflated.