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YEAR 9 - Predictions v Actuals: Dawn of Totals (Actuals Thread)

By Blankments, in Vanilla CAYOM

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rukaio101 Blockbuster

rukaio101

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I'll put it up to a vote

 

If two people besides Rukaio would like me to redo Log Horizon's numbers, I will. That would be a majority of regular players (since I know Rukaio is for it) I think, subtracting myself from the equation.

 

This is the only time and only film I will offer a redo, because I do feel awful about it. I will post actuals for June once I'm done with my Comic Con

That's fair enough. And if people object to the idea of changing the totals, I won't complain. I may still make the occasional passive-aggressive stab though.

 

EDIT: Wait, two people have already agreed. Okay, we're cool.

 

DOUBLE EDIT: (Christ my computer is slow)

 

Alright, redoing them

 

Just a warning though: The film is still going to underperform, but not to the ridiculous floppage I had it at originally

Wait what? Why? Every other animated film this year (except Tortoise Run) has underperformed. As have the last two week's major blockbusters. There's no justifiable reason for Log Horizon to do the same at the moment.. If I were you, I'd just double all the totals you have now. That'd put it pretty much alongside expectations

 

I personally think that Overdrive's number is more problematic than Log Horizon's, but out of respect for Rukaio, I will say that it can be changed.

Blank's assured me it was already making a killing overseas along with excellent domestic legs so my wrath is sated on that one. Would've liked an actual reason for the low OW but I'll take what I can get.

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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In a bizarre twist straight out of a spy movie, it appears as though anonymous hackers have managed to steal half of Log Horizon's gross! Thankfully, the FBI/CIA/FCC/POTUS have managed to team up and regain the money for Star Platinum Studios. Perhaps they'll adapt this into a movie someday; for now, have the fixed weekend numbers for May.

 

May 10-12
 
1. Log Horizon - 45,770,240 (NEW)
2. Overdrive - 24,316,995 (WEEK 2)
3. Dawn of the Last Six - 18,244,333 (WEEK 3)
4. Into the Dead - 17,878,390 (NEW)
5. Me and My Shadow - 7,955,160 (WEEK 5)
6. Things That Are - 3,897,006 (WEEK 2)
7. The Fifth Wave - 2,433,508 (WEEK 4)
8. Portentous Dealings - 2,058,492 (WEEK 4)
9. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 1,740,014 (WEEK 6)
10. Peace at Last - 955,153 (WEEK 8)
11. The Red Pyramid - 871,739 (WEEK 8)
12. Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood - 768,177 (WEEK 11)
 
May 17-19
 
1. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 146,844,099 (NEW)
2. Log Horizon - 22,702,040 (WEEK 2)
3. Epicer Chase - 14,928,459 (NEW)
4. Overdrive - 14,079,540 (WEEK 3)
5. Dawn of the Last Six - 11,165,532 (WEEK 4)
6. Into the Dead - 8,885,560 (WEEK 2)
7. Me and My Shadow - 4,068,621 (WEEK 6)
8. The Fifth Wave - 1,382,233 (WEEK 5)
9. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 762,126 (WEEK 7)
10. Things That Are - 720,946 (WEEK 3)
11. Portentous Dealings - 409,640 (WEEK 5)
12. MST3K: Thomas the Tank Engine - 295,108 (WEEK 5)
 
May 24-27 (Memorial Day Weekend)
 
1. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 83,994,825/107,800,628 (WEEK 2)
2. Yzma - 45,223,267/56,683,705 (NEW)
3. Train 38 - 24,317,241/31,372,000 (NEW)
4. Log Horizon - 16,231,958/20,729,080 (WEEK 3)
5. Overdrive - 10,066,871/13,103,445 (WEEK 4)
6. Dawn of the Last Six - 7,000,789/9,034,084 (WEEK 5)
7. Epicer Chase - 6,464,023/8,153,114 (WEEK 2)
8. Into the Dead - 4,798,202/6,176,124 (WEEK 3)
9. Me and My Shadow - 951,419/1,641,961 (WEEK 7)
10. The Fifth Wave - 514,191/613,922 (WEEK 6)
11. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld -388,684/467,166 (WEEK 8)
12. Things That Are - 349,659/421,954 (WEEK 4)
 
May 31-June 2
 
1. Dauntless - 64,930,742 (NEW)
2. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 44,685,247 (WEEK 3)
3. American Idiot - 24,988,695 (NEW)
4. Yzma - 32,651,199 (WEEK 2)
5. Train 38 - 12,644,965 (WEEK 2)
6. Log Horizon - 8,586,706 (WEEK 4)
7. Overdrive - 7,177,679 (WEEK 5)
8. Dawn of the Last Six - 4,389,495 (WEEK 6)
9. Into the Dead - 3,162,015 (WEEK 4)
10. Epicer Chase - 2,915,274 (WEEK 3)
11. Me and My Shadow – 389,130 (WEEK 8)
12. The Fifth Wave – 233,443 (WEEK 7)
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4815162342 Global Phenomenon

4815162342

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After seeing that Overdrive was made for less than $100 million, Rukaio's complaints for that film hold less water since it's over $125 million by the end of May's last weekend with at least another 15-20 million in the tank. It's going to end up doing better than non-Rukaio people predicted for it in the end.

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rukaio101 Blockbuster

rukaio101

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After seeing that Overdrive was made for less than $100 million, Rukaio's complaints for that film hold less water since it's over $125 million by the end of May's last weekend with at least another 15-20 million in the tank. It's going to end up doing better than non-Rukaio people predicted for it in the end.

Hey, I said I was okay with Overdrive's performance (or at least I'm saying it now). My major problem was much more the fact that this was the fifth time this year a film of mine had opened lower than the lowest predictions (except Alpha's but that was a ranged prediction). Which I was understandably rather peeved about since you're unlucky if that happens to you once in a year. That and Blank had admitted he no reason for it. Honestly, once I cooled down and thought about it I was much more annoyed about Log Horizon than I was Overdrive. 

 

But, now Log Horizon's been fixed I'm not really angry any more towards May's totals. And while I would've liked a higher OW, Overdrive is doing absolutely fantastic like you said and I don't think Blank needs to change a thing about it.

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Rorschach Summer Tentpole

Rorschach

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I honestly see Into the Dead's OW as really good considering that male audience was probably stolen completely by Star Wars.

Yeah i agree. But my problem was my other film, The Cave, made around the same amount it's first weekend and in full honesty, they are two COMPLETELY different movies. I understand that it may have underperformed but still I would've expected more seeing as how Into The Dead could appeal to more people than The Cave and even that film over performed from intital predictions (though it still made a big profit overall :P $3 million dollar budget). I would've at least expected a low 20s performance. It probably would've done better had it been released in a less crowded month. But whatever, if it does well overseas, I'm green lighting the sequel. I hope to make it better, character-wise and action-wise, adding in the best parts of the original and making them even better and improving on the weaker aspects as well. Overall, I don't think it's a total failure. Do I think it could've been better, Hell Yeah!!! Did it have good qualities about it, Oh Yeah!
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

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June 7-9
 
To absolutely no one’s surprise, Dauntless and Star Wars kept the two spots at the box office this weekend. 5 Centimeters per Second performed in line with expectations, making a little over 20M. Tyrant III disappointed with barely 10M, opening in sixth place behind Yzma and American Idiot. In other fun news, Star Wars passed 400M. Get dat cash, Numerator Pictures!
 
1. Dauntless - 29,088,972 (WEEK 2)
2. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 24,621,571 (WEEK 4)
3. 5 Centimeters per Second - 20,523,951 (NEW)
4. Yzma - 20,504,953 (WEEK 3)
5. American Idiot - 11,944,596 (WEEK 2)
6. Tyrant III: The Final Chapter - 10,086,689 (NEW)
7. Train 38 - 7,005,311 (WEEK 3)
8. Overdrive - 3,646,261 (WEEK 6)
9. Dawn of the Last Six - 3,590,607 (WEEK 7)
10. Log Horizon - 2,447,212 (WEEK 5)
11. Into the Dead - 1,764,404 (WEEK 5)
12. Epicer Chase - 1,303,127 (WEEK 4)
 
June 14-16
 
The first major upset of the summer is here with Fate Stay Night beating Sir Thymes Time 2 for the top spot. Fate Stay Night had the perfect combination of good buzz and good reviews, allowing it to break out above expectations. Sir Thymes Time 2 has continued the odd trend of animated films underperforming to expectations. That said, it should have notably better legs than Fate Stay Night, and it FINALLY broke the "Non-#1 Opening Weekend" record. A good weekend regardless.
 
1. Fate Stay Night - 75,460,421 (NEW)
2. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 71,023,757 (NEW)
3. Dauntless - 17,976,985 (WEEK 3)
4. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 16,225,615 (WEEK 5)
5. Yzma - 13,635,794 (WEEK 4)
6. 5 Centimeters per Second - 8,209,580 (WEEK 2)
7. American Idiot - 6,760,641 (WEEK 3)
8. Tyrant III: The Final Chapter - 3,721,988 (WEEK 2)
9. Train 38 - 3,614,740 (WEEK 4)
10. Dawn of the Last Six - 2,297,988 (WEEK 8)
11. Overdrive - 1,706,450 (WEEK 7)
12. Log Horizon - 1,120,824 (WEEK 6)
 
June 21-23
 
Well, this is interesting. According to most other box office trackers, Vinland Saga opened at 49.5M for the #1 spot. However, Star Platinum Studios reported 50M to us. We will use their number, but it does seem highly suspect. Last week’s two releases took spots #2 and #3, although in switched positions. Meanwhile, the comedy 1,843 Miles… opened in fourth, slightly overperforming thanks to the major lack of comedies this summer.
 
1. Vinland Saga - 50,004,531* (NEW)
2. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 38,210,781 (WEEK 2)
3. Fate Stay Night - 30,938,773 (WEEK 2)
4. 1,843 Miles and 28 Hours on I-75 S - 21,765,619 (NEW)
5. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 10,644,003 (WEEK 6)
6. Dauntless - 9,096,354 (WEEK 4)
7. Yzma - 7,145,156 (WEEK 5)
8. 5 Centimeters per Second - 4,736,928 (WEEK 3)
9. American Idiot - 3,251,868 (WEEK 4)
10. Train 38 - 1,760,378 (WEEK 5)
11. Dawn of the Last Six - 1,721,193 (WEEK 9)
12. Tyrant III: The Final Chapter - 1,205,924 (WEEK 3)
 
June 28-30
 
This weekend went as expected with 39 Clues performing on the high end of expectations, thanks to the larger break between installments. It should play well through the coming weeks. Meanwhile, David Henrie won’t be directing again any time soon, as 3:40 AM bombed, probably killing the franchise. Oddly enough, it grossed 3.40M... Oh, yeah, and Kansas came out. Not gonna analyze it though because fuck that movie.
 
1. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave - 94,365,217 (NEW)
2. Vinland Saga - 20,090,269 (WEEK 2)
3. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 19,487,498 (WEEK 3)
4. Fate Stay Night - 17,789,795 (WEEK 3)
5. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 10,750,443 (WEEK 7)
6. 1,843 Miles and 28 Hours on I-75 S - 8,989,201 (WEEK 2)
7. Dauntless - 5,066,669 (WEEK 5)
8. Yzma - 5,044,480 (WEEK 6)
9. 3:40 AM - 3,360,894 (NEW)
10. 5 Centimeters per Second - 2,254,778 (WEEK 4)
11. American Idiot - 2,107,210 (WEEK 5)
12. Dawn of the Last Six - 1,215,162 (WEEK 10)
 
Kansas - 597,591 (NEW)
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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Well, I hoped for some word of mouth to carry 5cm per second to a decent number. That ain't gonna happen.

Meh, I think it's decent  :ph34r:

 

The constant hate machine on Kansas is starting to get old, but regardless, good limited opening.Also, 1,843 Miles is doing really well.

Blank's the name and hating on Kansas is my game

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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I remember in CAYOM 1.0 David Henrie did the voice of Rick for If...., I wonder if I would have left him instead of using Efron it would have done better LOLOLOLOLOL

No need to wonder.

 

600M DOM

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