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YEAR 9 - Predictions v Actuals: Dawn of Totals (Actuals Thread)

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January 4-6
 
The New Year begins, and so does Box Office insanity! Samara scared its way to the top, making a cool 36.8M surpassing all but the highest expectations. Word of mouth appears to be bad for it though, despite decent reviews. Ship of Lies disappointed in fifth, earning only 8.6M, but word of mouth seems to be okay and reviews were alright. Finally, Mine bombed, opening in eighth and making only 2.3M. Hype for Samara and poor reviews did it in.
 
1. Samara - 36,842,857 (NEW)
2. Mushishi - 26,843,487
3. The Little Mermaid- 25,552,453
4. Flowers for Algernon - 12,240,872
5. Ship of Lies - 8,649,058 (NEW)
6. Wallace and Gromit: Christmas - 4,711,343
7. Avatar: The Last Airbender- The Search - 3,465,601
8. Mine - 2,264,286 (NEW)
9. Dracula - 2,027,843
10. The Normans- 1,440,482 
11. A Series of Unfortunate Events the Fourth - 1,059,962
12. The Innocent- 999,285
 
January 11-13
 
It was a close race for number 1 with Alice disappointing and Tortoise surprising. The former, with excellent reviews and good buzz opened on the low end of expectations. The latter, with awful reviews and blah buzz opened higher. The lack of mainstream animation probably helped Tortoise, and Alice’s audience was partially satisfied by rushing out to Samara last week. Speaking of which, Samara cratered in its second weekend, falling to spot #5 below last year’s hits, Mushishi and The Little Mermaid.
 
1. Alice in Horrorland - 24,242,857 (NEW)
2. Tortoise Run - 23,471,429 (NEW)
3. Mushishi - 19,373,135
4. The Little Mermaid - 15,907,456
5. Samara - 8,842,286 (WEEK 2)
6. Flowers for Algernon - 7,588,807
7. Ship of Lies - 4,238,038 (WEEK 2)
8. Wallace and Gromit: Christmas- 1,961,128
9. Avatar: The Last Airbender- The Search- 1,940,408
10. Dracula – 1,584,319
11. Mine - 1,041,572 (WEEK 2)
12. The Normans- 1,004,972
 
January 18-21 (MLK Weekend)
 
I Have a Dream that both openers will do well… and that dream came true when Among the Imposters opened to expected numbers and Dystopia, USA beat the highest expectation by 7M. The former film had excellent marketing and good hype. Surprisingly though, it does not appear to be frontloaded and when polled, it seemed to have a large number of walkups. Coupled with an A Cinemascore and a snowstorm causing school cancellations on Monday, this sequel should have unnaturally good legs. Dystopia, USA on the other hand had all the funny jokes in the trailers, and is expected to drop hard. A lack of animated competition allowed Tortoise Run to overtake Alice in Horrorland, despite the latter getting good word of mouth from genre fans.
 
1. Among the Imposters - 37,623,671/46,228,045 (NEW)
2. Dystopia, USA - 24,542,857/28,454,103 (NEW)
3. Tortoise Run - 14,552,286/19,225,200 (WEEK 2)
4. Mushishi - 13,892,459/16,224,758 
5. Alice in Horrorland - 11,636,571/12,704,934 (WEEK 2)
6. The Little Mermaid - 9,087,752/11,636,873
7. Flowers for Algernon - 4,780,449/6,943,726
8. Samara - 2,917,954/3,283,740 (WEEK 3)
9. Ship of Lies - 2,373,301/2,779,315 (WEEK 3)
10. Avatar: The Last Airbender- The Search - 1,367,009/2,274,882
11. Wallace and Gromit: Christmas - 1,221,092/1,962,524 
12. Dracula – 792,160/910,983
 
January 25-27
 
For the second weekend in a row, Hourglass Pictures has a surprise break-out! Skyjumper beat the highest expectations by over 10M, proving that an underserved market, in this case, sports buffs, will come out in droves to support a new movie. A crowd-pleaser in the best sense, Skyjumper should maker respectable money in the future. The Last Six 3D did better than most expected opening in third at 12M, probably due to hype for the future film. The re-release should drop hard in the coming weeks though. Change of Heart opened at fifth to a disappointing sub-10M. It should hold well in the following weeks for Valentine’s Day, and then drop like a rock. Holdovers from last week filled out the top 5 with respectable holds for each.
 
1. Skyjumper - 34,219,056 (NEW)
2. Among the Imposters - 17,460,439 (WEEK 2)
3. The Last Six 3D - 12,657,143 (NEW)
4. Dystopia, USA - 11,044,286 (WEEK 2)
5. Change of Heart - 9,357,143 (NEW)
6. Mushishi- 8,751,963
7. Tortoise Run - 8,731,372 (WEEK 3)
8. Alice in Horrorland - 7,098,308 (WEEK 3)
9. The Little Mermaid- 5,768,280
10. Flowers for Algernon- 2,868,009 
11. Ship of Lies - 1,210,384 (WEEK 4)
12. Samara - 700,309 (WEEK 4)
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Tortoise Run :o  :o :o . WOW. Already at like 52M. Really surprised 

 

And Samara's OW is amazing and the total should be good ableit very frontloaded

 

Great actuals Blank, loads of surprises

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January 25-27
 
For the second weekend in a row, Hourglass Pictures has a surprise break-out! Skyjumper beat the highest expectations by over 10M, proving that an underserved market, in this case, sports buffs, will come out in droves to support a new movie. A crowd-pleaser in the best sense, Skyjumper should maker respectable money in the future. The Last Six 3D did better than most expected opening in third at 12M, probably due to hype for the future film. The re-release should drop hard in the coming weeks though. Change of Heart opened at fifth to a disappointing sub-10M. It should hold well in the following weeks for Valentine’s Day, and then drop like a rock. Holdovers from last week filled out the top 5 with respectable holds for each.
 
1. Skyjumper - 34,219,056 (NEW)
2. Among the Imposters - 17,460,439 (WEEK 2)
3. The Last Six 3D - 12,657,143 (NEW)
4. Dystopia, USA - 11,044,286 (WEEK 2)
5. Change of Heart - 9,357,143 (NEW)
6. Mushishi- 8,751,963
7. Tortoise Run - 8,731,372 (WEEK 3)
8. Alice in Horrorland - 7,098,308 (WEEK 3)
9. The Little Mermaid- 5,768,280
10. Flowers for Algernon- 2,868,009 
11. Ship of Lies - 1,210,384 (WEEK 4)
12. Samara - 700,309 (WEEK 4)

 

 

I predicted 31M which is only a 3M difference gap :)

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I just realised that both my January movies made their production budgets back really quickly. Finally some profitable films for Millennium Films

 

Samara made it's budget back on it's 4th day [budget of 37M and 36.8M on OW so must have got it on Monday] and Tortoise Run made it's budget back on it's 2nd weekend [37M total through first 10 days, 32M budget]

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Dang it. Ship of Lies had near all positive reviews (except Numbers) and pretty much everyone predicting +$10m OW and it still managed to underperform. I get the feeling this is not going to be a good quarter for me...

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February 1-3
 
Holy numbers Batman! Numerator Pictures’ only release of the quarter broke out hugely to 60M+, surpassing all expectations. There are several things to blame for its success. Liam Neeson has not done an action movie in two years, and not a non-Chuck Norris teamup since March, Year 6. Fresh off his Oscar win, Neeson has always been a reliable action draw, and the withdrawal of action movies and good reviews allowed it to do so well. Another factor was that since Numerator Pictures has no other films releasing this quarter, Numbers Theory had much better marketing than similar films to it, so awareness was high. Slenderman opened to an unremarkable 10.5M in fourth place.
 
1. Numbers Theory - 63,437,423 (NEW)
2. Skyjumper - 16,082,956 (WEEK 2)
3. Among the Imposters - 10,476,263 (WEEK 3)
4. Slenderman: The Search - 10,458,940 (NEW)
5. The Last Six 3D - 7,341,143 (WEEK 2)
6. Mushishi- 5,513,697
7. Change of Heart - 4,959,286 (WEEK 2)
8. Tortoise Run - 4,540,313 (WEEK 4)
9. Dystopia, USA - 4,417,714 (WEEK 3)
10. Alice in Horrorland - 4,329,968 (WEEK 4)
11. The Little Mermaid- 3,283,724 
12. Flowers for Algernon- 1,749,948
 
February 8-10
 
This weekend should’ve been the calm before the box office storm, but Walking Alone wasn’t gonna have any of that! The romantic sci-fi opened above expectations to around 50M, thanks to popularity of the first one and good marketing. It should do well in the coming weeks as the premier romance of the Valentine’s season. Ice Desert disappointed, opening 6M below Tortoise Run despite double the budget. A derivative storyline and poor reviews did it in. Sweet Disposition did okay, mostly thanks to sold-out shows of Walking Alone
 
1. Walking Alone - 50,730,268 (NEW)
2. Numbers Theory - 36,159,311 (WEEK 2)
3. Ice Desert - 17,083,638 (NEW)
4. Sweet Disposition - 9,865,172 (NEW)
5. Among the Imposters - 8,904,824 (WEEK 4)
6. Skyjumper - 8,684,796 (WEEK 3)
7. Slenderman: The Search - 4,288,165 (WEEK 2)
8. Mushishi - 3,362,937
9. The Last Six 3D - 3,083,280 (WEEK 3)
10. Change of Heart - 2,678,014 (WEEK 3)
11. Tortoise Run - 2,224,753 (WEEK 5)
12. Alice in Horrorland - 2,078,385 (WEEK 5)
 
February 15-18 (President’s Day Weekend)
 
When there’s trouble, you know how to call! Teen Titans opened to a stellar 75M+ on the three-day weekend, higher than any other non-Justice League DCU movie. A lack of superhero movies and family friendly blockbusters, coupled with better than expected reviews means this’ll have a very nice run. The same cannot be said about the other two openers this weekend, opening in fourth and fifth. The Tudors had a respectable limited opening too. One wonders when this box office high will end, since what goes up must come down.
 
1. Teen Titans - 76,131,982/88,001,014 (NEW)
2. Walking Alone - 26,887,042/30,448,211 (WEEK 2)
3. Numbers Theory - 18,802,842/21,896,985 (WEEK 3)
4. The Cave - 17,430,675/19,492,320 (NEW)
5. The Best of You - 17,016,741/19,654,795/21,804,461 (NEW)
6. Ice Desert - 12,812,729/17,001,385 (WEEK 2)
7. Skyjumper - 5,384,574/6,370,151 (WEEK 4)
8. Sweet Disposition - 4,833,934/5,526,798 (WEEK 2)
9. Among the Imposters - 4,808,605/6,641,472 (WEEK 5)
10. Mushishi- 2,296,616/3,473,912
11. Slenderman: The Search - 2,144,083/2,469,393 (WEEK 3)
12. Tortoise Run - 1,290,357/1,773,283 (WEEK 6)
 
The Tudors - 953,952/1,319,310/1,467,501 (NEW)
 
February 22-24
 
Go! Teen Titans is the first movie of the year to hold the #1 spot for more than one week with a decent 56% drop. Phoenix Wright disappointed despite good reviews and a nice cast, probably thanks to the niche subject matter. No worries though, as the film has an A+ Cinemascore and should do well overseas thanks to the Japanese source material and foreign-friendly cast (Tom Cruise and Benedict Cumberbatch especially). It should have a very nice run and Part 2 could be in for a much bigger OW. The Tudors expanded and is making expected money. Childhood Ruined 2 isn’t even worth talking about since no one wants to acknowledge its existence.
 
1. Teen Titans - 33,498,072 (WEEK 2)
2. Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – Part 1 - 14,496,471 (NEW)
3. Walking Alone - 11,830,299 (WEEK 3)
4. The Best of You - 9,529,375 (WEEK 2)
5. Ice Desert - 8,968,910 (WEEK 3)
6. The Cave - 7,669,497 (WEEK 2)
7. Numbers Theory - 7,145,080 (WEEK 4)
8. The Tudors - 4,464,896 (WEEK 2 – WIDE)
9. Among the Imposters - 3,750,712 (WEEK 6)
10. Childhood Ruined 2 - 3,564,320 (NEW)
11. Sweet Disposition - 2,900,360 (WEEK 3)
12. Skyjumper - 1,346,144 (WEEK 5)
 
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Wait wut....Numbers Theory opening that high. Mind = blown.

It's not unprecedented in CAYOM btw. Meant to include in the weekend description that Wolves of the Deep in Year 3 opened to around those numbers anyway

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