YEAR 9 - Predictions v Actuals: Dawn of Totals (Actuals Thread)

[Blankments]

Alright, keep that stick up your butt.

Who put the stick up my butt?

[ChD]

Who put the stick up my butt?

Fine, give it back.

[rukaio101]

Yes! It's a good month for me! Especially Fate Stay Night which I believe is my highest OW in this game. Admittedly, I didn't think Blank was going to make my films flop (out of (completely justified) fears that I'd sodomize him in his sleep) but it's good to see nonetheless.

 

Also, I wish I could someday have an animated film gross $70m+ OW and have people claim it underperformed...

[Blankments]

The biggest shock to myself if I wasn't doing the actuals

 

Chuck Norris OW>Last Six OW

[Blankments]

PTAs of Q2:

 

Kansas: 54,326

Star Wars: Age of the Republic: 34,822

The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave: 21,874

Fate Stay Night: 19,439

Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld: 18,061

Sir Thymes Time 2: 17,725

Dauntless: 16,476

Dawn of the Last Six: 15,327

Vinland Saga: 15,222

Yzma (4-Day): 14,564

Log Horizon: 11,812

Yzma: 11,620

Me and My Shadow: 11,149

Train 38 (4-Day): 10,136

Overdrive: 9,445

Train 38: 7,857

5 Centimeters per Second: 7,330

1,843 Miles and 28 Hours on I-75 S: 7,270

American Idiot: 6,816

The Fifth Wave: 6,396

I Am Malala: 5,074

Into the Dead: 5,018

Polybius: 4,625

Portentous Dealings: 4,501

Epicer Chase: 4,096

Tyrant III: The Final Chapter: 2,923

Things That Are: 2,522

Horror House 2: 2,079

MST3K: Thomas the Tank Engine: 1,791

3:40 AM: 1,048

[Rorschach]

I got bored and decided to predict the outcome of some of Y9's biggest box office films. I only did the two movies with the highest OW each month. I hope these predictions turn out to be accurate. Here's hoping.SamaraOW: $36.8 m, Est. Gross: $63.1 m^58.3% of final grossAmong the ImpostersOW: $37.6 m, Est. Gross: $115.3 m^32.6% of final grossNumbers TheoryOW: $63.4 m, Est. Gross: $171.8 m^36.9% of final grossTeen TitansOW: $76.1 m, Est. Gross: $191.4 m^39.8% of final grossLegend of the Joestars: Phantom BloodOW: $66.1 m, Est. Gross: $258.8 m^25.5% of final grossThe Red PyramidOW: $44.9 m, Est. Gross: $125.6 m^35.8% of final grossChuck Norris & Liam Neeson vs. The UnderworldOW: $69.1 m, Est. Gross: $160.4 m^43.1% of final grossDawn of the Last SixOW: $67.6 m, Est. Gross: $197 m^34.3% of final grossStar Wars: Age of the RepublicOW: $146.8 m, Est. Gross: $481.1 m^30.5% of final grossDauntlessOW: $64.9 m, Est. Gross: $179.9 m^36.1% of final grossFate Stay NightOW: $75.4 m, Est. Gross (Up until July 4): $170.8 m^44.1% of the current grossThe 39 Clues: Beyond the GraveOW: $94.3 m, Est. Gross (Up until July 4): $135.3 m^69.7% of the current gross

Edited October 15, 2014 by TheMightyRorschachLord

[Blankments]

July 3-7 (July 4th)

 

One nation under Godzilla! Independence weekend went to the King of Monsters, and no one is surprised by that at all. The movie should perform significantly better than its predecessors, thanks to the release date and the fact that it’s a Part 2. Both Minnie’s Summer Vacation overperformed with around 15M and 12M respectively, and 39 Clues and Sir Thymes filled out the rest of the top 5.

 

1. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 84,585,601/140,569,816 (NEW)

2. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 41,709,426/60,264,655 (WEEK 2)

3. Minnie’s Summer Vacation - 14,905,849/19,822,435 (NEW)

4. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 13,524,324/20,133,262 (WEEK 4)

5. OMG Sharkz! - 12,087,557/20,158,451 (NEW)

6. Fate Stay Night - 10,851,775/17,598,837 (WEEK 4)

7. Vinland Saga - 9,603,149/15,260,337 (WEEK 3)

8. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 7,245,799/10,262,748 (WEEK 8)

9. 1,843 Miles and 28 Hours on I-75 S - 4,278,860/5,920,600 (WEEK 3)

10. Dauntless - 2,730,935/3,975,602 (WEEK 6)

11. Yzma - 2,718,975/4,185,261 (WEEK 7)

12. 5 Centimeters per Second - 1,375,415/2,040,950 (WEEK 5)

 

3:40 AM - 984,742/1,303,213 (WEEK 2)

Kansas - 943,347/1,215,326 (WEEK 2 – WIDER)

 

July 12-14

 

What a surprise; Godzilla took first again. NOT! Everyone reasonably believed Godzilla would be #1, but no one could’ve expected Life of Galileo to do so well. All hail the Baz as another one of his movies surprise, most likely thanks to the presence of Leonardo DiCaprio, even though not in a lead role. Vector bombed at 12.9M, leaving Blank to wonder if he really wants to adapt Temple Run into a Chris Pratt/Matthew McConaughey tentpole.

 

1. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 40,602,089 (WEEK 2)

2. Life of Galileo - 35,217,532 (NEW)

3. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 18,810,951 (WEEK 3)

4. Vector - 12,884,063 (NEW)

5. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 7,722,389 (WEEK 5)

6. Minnie’s Summer Vacation - 7,601,983 (WEEK 2)

7. Fate Stay Night - 6,033,587 (WEEK 5)

8. Vinland Saga - 4,772,765 (WEEK 4)

9. OMG Sharkz! - 4,714,147 (WEEK 2)

10. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 3,456,246 (WEEK 9)

11. Yzma - 1,976,695 (WEEK 8)

12. 1,843 Miles and 28 Hours on I-75 S - 1,801,400 (WEEK 4)

 

Kansas - 1,254,236 (WEEK 3 – WIDER)

 

July 19-21

 

The second high profile battle of the summer of an animation and a live-action tentpole once again went to the live-action film. Death Note did better than most expectations with 65M, but don’t count Scrooge out! The traditionally animated film made 53M, a shockingly good debut for a studio’s first film. The combination of nostalgia and some really excellent marketing gave it a big opening, and one should expect very good legs for this fun film.

 

1. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 64,635,751 (NEW)

2. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck – 52,702,598 (NEW)

3. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 18,270,940 (WEEK 3)

4. Life of Galileo - 16,904,415 (WEEK 2)

5. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 11,474,680 (WEEK 4)

6. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 5,737,735 (WEEK 6)

7. Vector - 4,767,103 (WEEK 2)

8. Kansas - 3,543,960 (WEEK 4 – WIDER)

9. Minnie’s Summer Vacation - 2,660,694 (WEEK 3)

10. Fate Stay Night - 2,371,200 (WEEK 6)

11. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 2,274,210 (WEEK 10)

12. OMG Sharkz! - 1,791,376 (WEEK 3)

 

July 26-28

 

Clear and Present Danger slightly disappointed with 55.8M, but Numerator Pictures shouldn’t be sad since the Jack Ryan franchise has always been about them legs, and there’s no reason to count out Danger on those now. Scrooge took over Death Note within one week, mostly due to most of Death Note’s audience heading to Clear and Present Danger. Lucky Winner bombed with a sub-10M opening. Also, LOL Kansas dropped even though it expanded wider. Poor Alpha Pictures.

 

1. Clear and Present Danger - 55,832,520 (NEW)

2. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 30,567,507 (WEEK 2)

3. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 25,207,943 (WEEK 2)

4. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 10,231,726 (WEEK 4)

5. Life of Galileo - 9,973,605 (WEEK 3)

6. The Lucky Winner - 9,602,547 (NEW)

7. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 6,965,131 (WEEK 5)

8. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 3,293,460 (WEEK 7)

9. Vector - 2,478,894 (WEEK 3)

10. Kansas - 2,023,223 (WEEK 5 – WIDEST)

11. Fate Stay Night - 1,370,554 (WEEK 7)

12. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 1,348,607 (WEEK 11)

[4815162342]

Actually CaPD ended up only 400k under my prediction, so no disappointment there!

[Alpha]

Wat.

OMG SHARKZ 2

JULY 1ST Y10

[Rorschach]

Wat.

OMG SHARKZ 2

JULY 1ST Y10

Edited October 3, 2014 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

I think my Godzilla prediction was almost spot on with the actual results only a 500 k difference on the weekend and about 150 k difference for the 5-day weekend!

[cookie]

Usíng Despicable Me as a comparison Scrooge McDuck should have already covered its budget by the end of the month. Fantastic result.

Edited October 3, 2014 by C00k13

[rukaio101]

Very strong result for Death Note there. Now let's see if Blank can make it through the rest of the quarter without pissing anybody off.

 

(I kid because I love, Blank. Also, I've no intention of making sequels for Sky Crawlers or Tick Tock do so I really don't care if they underperform much. (Provided you keep it in reason))

[Blankments]

August 2-4

 

A good weekend at the box office. The Cloud opened on the high end of expectations with 57M, and Emmerich is happy he did not go the way of Michael Bay. Meanwhile, Mickey After Walt overperformed with a solid 20M, making David Henrie cry tears of joy as Kevin Spacey turns to you and rolls his eyes. In other news, the boringness of August begins with two films in the top twelve being below one million dollars. Yay!

 

1. The Cloud - 57,091,385 (NEW)

2. Clear and Present Danger - 29,032,910 (WEEK 2)

3. Mickey After Walt - 20,205,692 (NEW)

4. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 15,895,104 (WEEK 3)

5. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 14,368,528 (WEEK 3)

6. Life of Galileo - 5,186,275 (WEEK 4)

7. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 5,168,127 (WEEK 6)

8. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 5,115,863 (WEEK 5)

9. The Lucky Winner - 4,897,299 (WEEK 2)

10. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 2,005,717 (WEEK 8)

11. Vector - 917,191 (WEEK 4)

12. Star Wars: Age of the Republic - 857,714 (WEEK 12)

 

August 9-11

 

My personal favorite action movie of the quarter did slightly better than expectations, opening right below 35M. Hopefully Star Platinum Studios changes their minds on a sequel with that, because it was a freaking awesome movie. That said, Fortune’s Hunters was also extremely quality, but yet opened under expectations. Blame falls both to straight westerns not being popular much anymore and a lack of stars in the film. Should have good legs though.

  

1. The Sky Crawlers - 34,805,582 (NEW)

2. The Cloud - 26,262,037 (WEEK 2)

3. Clear and Present Danger - 21,484,353 (WEEK 3)

4. Fortune’s Hunters - 18,914,601 (NEW)

5. Mickey After Walt – 12,729,586 (WEEK 2)

6. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 10,318,818 (WEEK 4)

7. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 7,616,320 (WEEK 4)

8. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 2,609,090 (WEEK 6)

9. Life of Galileo - 2,593,138 (WEEK 5)

10. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 2,294,648 (WEEK 7)

11. The Lucky Winner - 1,665,082 (WEEK 3)

12. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 1,430,076 (WEEK 9)

 

August 16-18

 

Bomberama this weekend at the box office! Both new releases came in under expectations. Urinetown opened in fourth place with only 12.5M. The main reason to blame with this is that no one wants to see a PG-rated musical about taxing pee. That should’ve probably showed up in focus testing… Candle Cove, thanks to terrible reviews and simply better movies out there, bombed at 8M. Woo-hoo. Of note, the top two were the exact same as last week! Exciting.

 

1. The Sky Crawlers - 17,750,847 (WEEK 2)

2. The Cloud - 13,393,639 (WEEK 3)

3. Fortune’s Hunters - 12,672,783 (WEEK 2)

4. Urinetown - 12,595,983 (NEW)

5. Clear and Present Danger - 10,097,646 (WEEK 4)

6. Mickey After Walt - 8,528,823 (WEEK 3)

7. Candle Cove - 8,189,731 (NEW)

8. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 6,583,356 (WEEK 5)

9. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 4,416,886 (WEEK 5)

10. Life of Galileo - 2,800,589 (WEEK 6)

11. Godzilla: Apocalypse, Part 2 - 1,174,091 (WEEK 7)

12. The 39 Clues: Beyond the Grave – 1,103,726 (WEEK 8)

 

August 23-25

 

The one new release of the week opened above expectations. However, there’s much to say about this movie. Yellow Wallpaper has fantastic word-of-mouth. Like A+++ word-of-mouth. Go on Twitter and so many people are saying they liked it more than they expected and it’s great as a horror movie and as a movie in general. This should have some very nice legs, and I’m not just talking Byrne’s

 

1. Yellow Wallpaper - 17,535,024 (NEW)

2. The Cloud - 12,456,084 (WEEK 4)

3. Fortune’s Hunters - 11,405,505 (WEEK 3)

4. The Sky Crawlers - 10,295,491 (WEEK 3)

5. Urinetown - 6,172,032 (WEEK 2)

6. Mickey After Walt - 5,117,294 (WEEK 4)

7. Candle Cove - 4,750,044 (WEEK 2)

8. Clear and Present Danger - 4,745,894 (WEEK 5)

9. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 4,437,517 (WEEK 6)

10. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 2,870,976 (WEEK 6)

11. Life of Galileo - 1,484,312 (WEEK 7)

12. Sir Thymes Time 2 - 650,456 (WEEK 11)

 

August 30-September 2

 

As expected, Yellow Wallpaper had a very nice drop. It was a tight race for number one though between Little Mermaid 3D and Train to Paradise. Little Mermaid ended up winning though, thanks to the studio smartly holding off on a DVD/Blu-Ray release until Christmas of this year. Train to Paradise did better than expected though, so yay there. The second Kansas movie of the year also managed to disappoint. Fun weekend.

 

1. The Little Mermaid 3D: The Family Edition - 19,012,039/23,790,796 (NEW)

2. Train to Paradise - 18,637,165/23,489,482 (NEW)

3. Yellow Wallpaper - 13,501,969/18,393,100 (WEEK 2)

4. The Disappearance of Ashley, Kansas - 9,065,576/11,147,715 (NEW)

5. Fortune’s Hunters - 6,387,083/8,672,182 (WEEK 4)

6. The Cloud - 6,103,481/7,982,162 (WEEK 5)

7. The Sky Crawlers - 5,662,520/7,386,745 (WEEK 4)

8. Mickey After Walt - 3,275,068/4,133,002 (WEEK 5)

9. The Adventures of Scrooge McDuck - 3,115,043/4,225,413 (WEEK 7)

10. Urinetown - 2,962,575/3,785,940 (WEEK 3)

11. Death Note: Eyes of a God - 2,440,330/3,190,812 (WEEK 7)

12. Clear and Present Danger - 1,945,817/2,342,836 (WEEK 6)

[ChD]

Train to Paradise did better than expected though, so yay there.

 

Just lol.

 

Thanks, I guess.

[Alpha]

Urinetown is gonna lose so much money for Alpha Pictures!

Though Yellow Wallpaper overperforming is great.

[cookie]

August 16-18

 

2. The Cloud - 13,393,639 (WEEK 3)

 

August 23-25

 

2. The Cloud - 12,456,084 (WEEK 4)

 

 

Dafuq?

 

Scrooge's third weekend seems pretty harsh compared to the sub-40% drop in the second weekend. Hope it didn't kill its chances for 200m (with my calculations it should be at 185m+ by the end of August).

Edited October 4, 2014 by C00k13

[Rorschach]

I feel like Blank is purposely making my films gross under the top 3. Oh well then.

"Simply better movies out there"?! Yeah...no

Edited October 5, 2014 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

Very strong result for Death Note there. Now let's see if Blank can make it through the rest of the quarter without pissing anybody off.

(I kid because I love, Blank. Also, I've no intention of making sequels for Sky Crawlers or Tick Tock do so I really don't care if they underperform much. (Provided you keep it in reason))

Nope Edited October 5, 2014 by Rorschach

[rukaio101]

My personal favorite action movie of the quarter did slightly better than expectations, opening right below 35M. Hopefully Star Platinum Studios changes their minds on a sequel with that, because it was a freaking awesome movie. 

Sorry Blank but it's an adaptation of (surprise surprise) an animated Japanese film and there's no sequel or anything else to adapt.

 

Then again, even if it wasn't, that seems like such a perfect place to end the story that a sequel would just feel cheap.