The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[lab276]

I can't believe how shit 2011 looks compared to 2012.

[MovieMan89]

I can't believe how shit 2011 looks compared to 2012.

In under 5 months we got a film that beat the admissions of anything last year. Now we have a film that could practically challenge the admissions of the top 2 films last year combined by the end of its run! Not to mention the other summer film coming out that is sure to slaughter 2011's admissions champ.

Edited May 8, 2012 by MM89

[BK007]

I can't believe how shit 2011 looks compared to 2012.

I haven't seen many films from October onwards but seen mostly everything I want to see from Jan til then.The movies are mostly mediocre. The only highlights of summer were Super 8 and Rise of the Apes.I liked On Stranger Tides, Deathly Hallows 2, Panda 2 but they were nowhere near their predecessors.

[BK007]

In under 5 months we got a film that beat the admissions of anything last year. Now we have a film that could practically challenge the admissions of the top 2 films last year combined by the end of its run! Not to mention the other summer film coming out that is sure to slaughter 2011's admissions champ.

For all the Dark Knight Rises hype you spew, I'm surprised you're not considering it to also slaughter DH2. Surely not only Magic Mike will do it.

[kayumanggi]

The Oscar baits look strong. The holiday season could be one of the biggest.

[kayumanggi]

By the way, I'm not saying we're never going to come out of the recession. The signs are there, but it's nothing more than that.I'm questioning the guarantees thrown about on here, that's all.$450m for the Hunger Games at one point. People throwing around Avatar for Avengers now.

A 390 M finish for THG or 600 M finish for TA is STILL huge. #nomorrecession

[AniNate]

Even I take out the 2002 comparison base, if Avengers made Iron Man's total adjusted, and Dark Shadows and Battleship each made $120m then we'd be equal wouldn't we? Depth matters.

Well, I'm a bit more optimistic about their prospects right now than you are. I don't expect Battleship to tank as badly as $50 million.

Yeah, about that... :lol:Fortunately it looks like The Avengers will still be making more than enough to improve on your Iron Man opening scenario.

[MovieMan89]

At the risk of sounding hypocritical for saying the recession was over, no further arguments necessary, I must say this month would be downright abysmal if it weren't for TA right now. I mean seriously my guess is it would easily be the worst May ever for attendance if you take out TA right? But then again I guess that's besides the point since a whole lot of people are still going to the movies this month, it all just happens to be one movie and one movie only. I'm sure there are other months in box office history that are similar to that. Appeal definitely does play in though, no doubt. Aside from TA these May movies have been about as appealing as an old banana peel.

[Cedarpoint1111]

May looked terrible from the beginning tho. There's like 8 nationwide releases the whole month.

Edited May 19, 2012 by CEDAR

[lab276]

May looked terrible from the beginning tho. There's like 8 nationwide releases the whole month.

Which is true. I was kind of bracing myself, but I didn't think it would end up this lopsided to TA.

[AniNate]

So far Men in Black isn't looking like the complete disaster some of us thought it might. It should do at least $150m-ish and end May on a somewhat positive note.

But unfortunately June also isn't looking as strong as it once was with the recent claims of Snow White being a dog and Prometheus being, well, not a masterpiece.

Edited May 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[MovieMan89]

So far Men in Black isn't looking like the complete disaster some of us thought it might. It should do at least $150m-ish and end May on a somewhat positive note.

But unfortunately June also isn't looking as strong as it once was with the recent claims of Snow White being a dog and Prometheus being, well, not a masterpiece.

What word is there on Prometheus yet? I hope you're not referring to that Empire review that was actually reviewing a different movie called Prometheus. As for SWATH, the reviews are very sparse even if one or two are negative doesn't necessarily mean majority will be. And that movie may not be that affected by reviews anyway. I still think June will be very strong at the BO.

[AniNate]

Hah, no, not that Empire review. I was the first one who caught on to that.There was a report from an insider that they weren't that impressed with the film. I know you shouldn't get too concerned over one or two reactions, but I can't remember the last time early negative reactions to a finished product ultimately led to an overwhelmingly positive response.

Edited May 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[kayumanggi]

The reason why the others are underperforming is because of the THE AVENGERS.

[BK007]

Actually if the Avengers hadn't broke out, the others were not going to make up for it since their quality all seem to be dubious.

tribe! Stop making me doubtful of Snow White and now Prometheus too?!?! Damn. Next up for me would be Brave, and it doesn't release here til August, so...

But honestly these have to be some of the worst performing May releases in decades.

[TLK]

I don't think either Snow White or Prometheus will bomb(<100 million DOM) as both movies have built in fanbases of sort, good early buzz and are being marketed well. MIB:3 has Will Smith so it should do 80 million 4-day irrespective of reviews. This weekend was bad but there is nothing shocking about any of these three movies bombing so I think it is a bit early to press the panic button. If MIB: 3 bombs then , well, ....

[Hiccup]

The reason why the others are underperforming is because of the THE AVENGERS.

I hate the Avengers for it

[Warhorse]

What word is there on Prometheus yet? I hope you're not referring to that Empire review that was actually reviewing a different movie called Prometheus. As for SWATH, the reviews are very sparse even if one or two are negative doesn't necessarily mean majority will be. And that movie may not be that affected by reviews anyway. I still think June will be very strong at the BO.

SWATH will not be affected by poor reviews. Chicks are going to flock to it for Chris Hemsworth and the romance, guys will go see it for Charlize Theron.Prometheus, on the other hand, that one will depend on WOM, cause right now, unless you are an internet blogger about movies, the movie trailer really does't paint what it's about. People who are fans of Charlize Theron, Michael Fassbender and/or scifi horror will be enticed to see it. Hope the WOM is good on it in the end.

[AniNate]

Guys won't see a Snow White movie if it sucks. Or at least the word of mouth will be toxic if they do.

[BK007]

I don't think either Snow White or Prometheus will bomb(<100 million DOM) as both movies have built in fanbases of sort, good early buzz and are being marketed well. MIB:3 has Will Smith so it should do 80 million 4-day irrespective of reviews. This weekend was bad but there is nothing shocking about any of these three movies bombing so I think it is a bit early to press the panic button. If MIB: 3 bombs then , well, ....

I wasn't referring to their BO prospects with that, though, both being "original" means bad reviews will hurt them. Snow White has no fanbase. Who do you think's going to turn up? The kids who saw it on DVD? Men in Black 3 has never been review-proof, not from the start and certainly not now. It reflects the draining of the well and then some which audiences have rejected more oft than not of late. Nothing shocking? How many times do you want to pull this stupid card? WTEWYE being female skewing rom-com was supposed to do better. Battleship having a 9M OD is much worse than originally thought and the Dictator was certainly not going to struggle as badly as it has been doing. I'm not saying the recession is back, since I'm not sure it went away, but like I said Avengers can't make up for everything and it's already beginning to show. 60% drops for other holdovers with a combined OD of $18m? Awful.

SWATH will not be affected by poor reviews. Chicks are going to flock to it for Chris Hemsworth and the romance, guys will go see it for Charlize Theron.Prometheus, on the other hand, that one will depend on WOM, cause right now, unless you are an internet blogger about movies, the movie trailer really does't paint what it's about. People who are fans of Charlize Theron, Michael Fassbender and/or scifi horror will be enticed to see it. Hope the WOM is good on it in the end.

Let's not be stupid. Why didn't they flock to see him in Cabin in the Woods? As if anyone even sees Hemsworth as a star yet. Guys flocking to see Charlize Theron? What do you have? Stock in the movie? The only reason everyone was suddenly excited about if after all the trash talking was because it looked epic, different and actually good not some cheesy, half-rate mess. If it is, it won't go down well. Great WOM could have taken it to $200m, shit WOM can make it gross $120m or less.