The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[BK007]

It is improvement in itself. Nothing has been able to achieve what The Avengers did since 2008. Seriously, it made more in its opening weekend than Thor, Hulk, and Captain America made in their entire runs.

That doesn't mean anything though. 2008 ended up 4.5% lower in admissions than 2007. You're more with my point than against it with that.

[lab276]

2012 is already over 70m tickets ahead of 2011. What I meant was that April 2012 was 6m tickets under April 2011, certainly not "awful" as you called it before.

[BK007]

Oh, okay, but what is the mark we're aiming for? If you say 2011 was in recession, then just beating it by one admission is "out" isn't it? But if 2011 was a recession and you only beat it by a small amount, then you aren't out of the mire yet.Anyway, still too early and you and tribe are actually making points unlike "It's dead/over/with TDI/THG/TA/will kill everything" and other nonsense.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I would like to say this, three blockbuster this year have over performed Lorax, The Hunger Games, and Avengers. What blockbuster will be next? I am going to say Snow White. I feel like Prometheus, Rock of Ages, Brave, and G.I. Joe: I think most of the movie will over perform.

[BK007]

Yeah? And three have underperformed too, lest we forget.

[AniNate]

That doesn't mean anything though. 2008 ended up 4.5% lower in admissions than 2007. You're more with my point than against it with that.

2011 was the worst box office year since the mid-90s. I'm not expecting a 2002 performance this year, but it's sure looking like a major improvement, which I honestly didn't see coming. The winter-spring looked like a slight improvement and the summer looked slightly weaker despite the presence of the Avengers and Batman behemoths.Before the Avengers hype began I was predicting it to finish around Iron Man, and now it's looking to blow that prediction away. That and the huge breakouts of Hunger Games and Lorax make up for the disappointments of those other films, IMO, since with the exception of John Carter they didn't really have $200m-$400m expectations, and even that movie was declared a flop in advance by just about everyone except myself. Edited May 7, 2012 by tribefan695

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Yeah? And three have underperformed too, lest we forget.

What has under performed John Carter and Wrath of Titans werfe always going to bomb whether the economy was good or bad. They looked like crap. In Wrath's case it was a sequel to which few liked.

[CloneWars]

Yeah? And three have underperformed too, lest we forget.

There are always underperforming films every year...Overperformers are a bit harder to come by.

[lab276]

There are always underperforming films every year...Overperformers are a bit harder to come by.

Not to mention, they overperformed more than even the highest predictions (with only a few exceptions). Edited May 7, 2012 by lab276

[XenoZodiac]

What were the 3 films to underperform?John Carter? Would have flopped if released in 2002.Wrath?-SameAR?- Its a sequel no one wantedT3D?- We all have seen this infinte timesMoreover, we got almost every film overperforming. Lorax, THG, TA blew all expectations.We have also got to remember that as time goes by, films are becoming more and more frontloaded.So, yeah, BO is being better day by day.

[BK007]

Look, 2011 was the worst box office year since the mid-90s. I'm not expecting a 2002 performance this year, but it's sure looking like a major improvement, which I honestly didn't see coming. The winter-spring looked like a slight improvement and the summer looked slightly weaker despite the presence of the Avengers and Batman behemoths.Before the Avengers hype began I was predicting it to finish around Iron Man, and now it's looking to blow that prediction away. That and the huge breakouts of Hunger Games and Lorax make up for the disappointments of those other films, IMO, since with the exception of John Carter they didn't really have $200m-$400m expectations, and even that movie was declared a flop in advance by just about everyone except myself.

You're probably one of my favourite posters. I did say 2002 was just a comparison because it was the page I had open.I've also said that it depth is what matters. TDK made the highest total since Titanic. There was also Iron Man and Indiana Jones in the same summer (I assume IJ4 made $300m?) If the rest of the movie can't pick up the slack then it won't do any good.Even I take out the 2002 comparison base, if Avengers made Iron Man's total adjusted, and Dark Shadows and Battleship each made $120m then we'd be equal wouldn't we? Depth matters.

What has under performed John Carter and Wrath of Titans werfe always going to bomb whether the economy was good or bad. They looked like crap. In Wrath's case it was a sequel to which few liked.

Someone outed you as a non-believer and potential hater of the Avengers and are having trouble dealing with its success. This statement is ridiculous. Wrath of the Titans was supposed to underperform but not to this extent. Since there's nothing here to go by, the WOKJ game had the lowest prediction of $100m. John Carter was not destined to bomb. Stop arguing with me. I don't like it when people use hindsight to explain they know everything. Get a new one and come back later.

There are always underperforming films every year...Overperformers are a bit harder to come by.

Not true.

Not to mention, they overperformed more than even the highest predictions (with only a few exceptions).

This is true. Again, this site it's hard to say anything because we don't have any historical prediction base. I'm going to use MGCasey's game over at WOKJ. 5 movies underperformed to the worst of all predictions, another 3 came in at second last. Yeah, 3 movies overperformed, but spread around their gross a bit and see how it all changes. In fact, I could even say, since I did predict $220m for the Lorax that it was "expected". So that's about a $120m from the Hunger Games and $70m from the Avengers to make up.$190m spread over Wrath, John Carter, American Reunion, Lucky One, Five Year Engagement, Pirates!, Safe, Three Stooges, Cabin in the Woods, Mirror Mirror etc. evens out.

[BK007]

What were the 3 films to underperform?John Carter? Would have flopped if released in 2002.Wrath?-SameAR?- Its a sequel no one wantedT3D?- We all have seen this infinte timesMoreover, we got almost every film overperforming. Lorax, THG, TA blew all expectations.We have also got to remember that as time goes by, films are becoming more and more frontloaded.So, yeah, BO is being better day by day.

Don't think you even deserve a response, what did you read, one post?If the Avengers opened to Iron Man 2 adjusted you would've said "people only want to see Iron Man". Save me the bullshit hindsight arguments.Three films becomes every film overperforming? Where can I get what you're smoking up on?BO is better by the day because it shifts gross forward? Fantastic argument.

[BK007]

By the way, I'm not saying we're never going to come out of the recession. The signs are there, but it's nothing more than that.I'm questioning the guarantees thrown about on here, that's all.$450m for the Hunger Games at one point. People throwing around Avatar for Avengers now.

[AniNate]

Even I take out the 2002 comparison base, if Avengers made Iron Man's total adjusted, and Dark Shadows and Battleship each made $120m then we'd be equal wouldn't we? Depth matters.

Well, I'm a bit more optimistic about their prospects right now than you are. I don't expect Battleship to tank as badly as $50 million.

[XenoZodiac]

Don't think you even deserve a response, what did you read, one post?If the Avengers opened to Iron Man 2 adjusted you would've said "people only want to see Iron Man". Save me the bullshit hindsight arguments.Three films becomes every film overperforming? Where can I get what you're smoking up on?BO is better by the day because it shifts gross forward? Fantastic argument.

I get what you say. TA overperforming by 200M and a lot more films cancelling it by disappointing is not equal to every film performing up to the mark.But, which were the films to overperform?We got in Jan-TDIContrabandThe Grey(not sure if there were a few more, I didn't follow Jan much)We got in Feb-The VowSafe Housejourney 2ChrionicleWoman in BlackMarch-LoraxProject XSilent House21 Jump StreetTHGApril-Three StoogesThink Like a ManThe lucky OneMay-TA

[Kvikk Lunsj]

You're probably one of my favourite posters. I did say 2002 was just a comparison because it was the page I had open.I've also said that it depth is what matters. TDK made the highest total since Titanic. There was also Iron Man and Indiana Jones in the same summer (I assume IJ4 made $300m?) If the rest of the movie can't pick up the slack then it won't do any good.Even I take out the 2002 comparison base, if Avengers made Iron Man's total adjusted, and Dark Shadows and Battleship each made $120m then we'd be equal wouldn't we? Depth matters.Someone outed you as a non-believer and potential hater of the Avengers and are having trouble dealing with its success.

I been predicted it do well. I have the highest prediction in the summer game. A couple of weeks ago I put 180m OW and somebody laughed at me. Just because I did not like the trailer does not mean I hate the film. I seeing Wednesday night and I am excited for it. Critcs and WOM are great I am expect a film like ID4, TIH, Deep Impact, and Jurassic Park.

[CJohn]

Silent House was only a hit because of the low budget.

[Lordmandeep]

TA will out gross and out sell TF3 by Sunday and DH2 next week....Think about that....

[Jandrew]

WHATS A RECESSION. 2012 is out of it guys, this was my opinion before TA even opened. 2012 is it sustains on this level, will be up with 2001-2004, people are coming back.

[XenoZodiac]

Silent House was only a hit because of the low budget.

I put it there by mistake.But we still got 15+ overperforming movies in 4 months. I think mine and BK's definition of overperforming is a bit different.