The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[Shawn Robbins]

2013 looks interesting, especially the summer which I can see out-performing summer 2012 is enough films deliver. Take out Avengers and TDKR and, IMHO, summer of 2012 was disappointing. A bit part of that is because everything in May...well, sucked...and then of course, the market collapsed toward the end of July/early August due to outside circumstances.May 2013, though... watch out. It may not have a $600+m grosser, but it may not need one. 2012's down months could be come 2013's up months, and vice versa.

[kayumanggi]

2013 looks interesting, especially the summer which I can see out-performing summer 2012 is enough films deliver. Take out Avengers and TDKR and, IMHO, summer of 2012 was disappointing. A bit part of that is because everything in May...well, sucked...and then of course, the market collapsed toward the end of July/early August due to outside circumstances.May 2013, though... watch out. It may not have a $600+m grosser, but it may not need one. 2012's down months could be come 2013's up months, and vice versa.

May and June look strong. July could surprise. And the holiday season is crazy. I'm confident about 2013 beating 2012.

[kayumanggi]

Jan-Feb don't look very good. I won't be surprised if we're back thinking about a recession by early March.

Then change the tune again in May and June. lol

[AniNate]

May and June look strong. July could surprise. And the holiday season is crazy. I'm confident about 2013 beating 2012.

What about the rest of the year? See, we kind of fell into this trap with 2011, we were all talking about how awesome the summer was going to be forgetting that the rest of the year counts too.

[kayumanggi]

What about the rest of the year? See, we kind of fell into this trap with 2011, we were all talking about how awesome the summer was going to be forgetting that the rest of the year counts too.

The same thing happened in 2012 and yet it still broke the record. May, June, November and December are gonna be big. It is for us to see what surprises the other months hold.

[AniNate]

Well, with Iron Man 3 blowing away expectations we may be able to catch up to 2012 by the end of the month.

[tommycruise]

I think for the most part it is over, every summer month now seems to have a mega success (IM3 for May, MOS and MU for june and Despicable Me for July) and the holiday seasons look exceptionally strong this year. As long as August-October aren't abysmal then I can't see it happening

[lab276]

Well, with Iron Man 3 blowing away expectations we may be able to catch up to 2012 by the end of the month.

The number to beat by then is 542.4. I'll be incredibly optimistic and say 144m for May. But that still only gets 2013 to about 506m.

[AniNate]

The number to beat by then is 542.4. I'll be incredibly optimistic and say 144m for May. But that still only gets 2013 to about 506m.

144? That seems pretty pessimistic considering we still have Star Trek and Fast opening. Those could combine for more than 150 million on their opening weekends.

[lab276]

144? That seems pretty pessimistic considering we still have Star Trek and Fast opening. Those could combine for more than 150 million on their opening weekends.

Tickets I mean.

[lab276]

So May will end up with, by my estimation, 136.7m tickets which makes it the biggest May since 2004. June looks like it's off to a good start too, the overall weekend will be up on last year by maybe 10-20%. I think 140-145m is a good target.

Edited June 1, 2013 by lab276

[AniNate]

*Sigh* Bump.

 

Well, we had a pretty good run of two years or so, but it seems the dark times have returned.

[Lordmandeep]

Indeed . 

[Mulder]

This'll wear off next year. 

[BK007]

This page has posts ranging from 26 December 2012 to today. Talk about a slow burner.

[Lordmandeep]

This'll wear off next year. 

 

 

Should wear off 1-2 punch of the extremely wide appeal  of Fast Seven and The Avengers. 

 

However I think Winter 2014 will be quite impressive but not as big Winter 2013. 

Edited July 2, 2014 by Lordmandeep

[AniNate]

Looks like it's time to bump this thread again. 2017 is going to finish under 2016 unadjusted and the short-term schedule to open 2018 doesn't look especially promising. With all the franchises that failed and disappointed over the past year and all the off-screen scandals that have kept the industry in the headlines for all the wrong reasons for the past few months, things are looking pretty grim right now.

[Lordmandeep]

Nah think IW is gonna be a huge deal ^ 

 

 

The Marvel fanbase has never been in such high spirits since the Post Avenger high in 2012. 

[AniNate]

Tickets sold this year projected to drop to worst level since 1995

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-box-office-challenges-20171223-story.html

[MovieMan89]

I think 2018 and 2019 will be pretty huge, though I worry about what happens after that since I think the franchise overload bubble could burst come 2020.