Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

Me Before You?

It won't make the Top 10, I'm expecting something like 2.1-2.2M

[Impact]

ID4 is a tough one to predict to be honest. Jones I've seen a trailer for a couple of times and people do seem interested-not sure though if they will be seeing it on its opening weekend or later though. Have seen nothing for the other 2 films (okay a stand up poster for The Shallows)

[stripe]

Dory 74M

IDR 47M

CI 19M

Shallows 16M

Jones 14M

Conjuring 8M

NYSM2 4.5M

XMA 3M

Warcraft 3M

Turtles2 2.5M

 

[Blankments]

1. Finding Dory - 71.6M
2. Independence Day: Resurgence - 45.6M
3. Central Intelligence - 18.1M
4. Free State of Jones - 13.3M
5. The Shallows - 8.7M
6. The Conjuring 2 - 7.7M
7. Now You See Me 2 - 5.3M
8. Warcraft - 3.6M
9. X-Men: Apocalypse - 3.6M
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass - 2.8M
11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 2.4M
12. Me Before You - 2.3M

[DAJK]

@mahnamahna I think your Lights Out and Don't Breathe weekends should be switched. I'm feeling like the former will be the original horror hit of the summer, we'll see though

[dudalb]

Early box office reports from Asia,where IDR opened yesterday, are that it's not doing very well.

[UrosepsisFace]

On 6/22/2016 at 0:36 AM, DAJK said:

@mahnamahna I think your Lights Out and Don't Breathe weekends should be switched. I'm feeling like the former will be the original horror hit of the summer, we'll see though

Lights Out is PG-13. I wonder if that will help or hurt it.

[Blankments]

On 6/15/2016 at 1:42 AM, Jeff Goldblank said:

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, The Jungle Book, Love and Friendship, The Lobster, The Nice Guys, and Money Monster are gone. Drive-in is Finding Dory and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

The Angry Birds Movie, Maggie's Plan, and Captain America: Civil War are gone. Drive-in is once again Finding Dory and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

 

Finding Dory - 38/14 (2D/3D) total 52 (down 8)

Independence Day: Resurgence - 21/3/11/2/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX/IMAX 3D) total 42 (debut)

The Shallows - 18 (debut)

Central Intelligence - 16 (down 5)
The Neon Demon - 16 (debut)

The Conjuring 2 - 15 (down 4)

Free State of Jones - 15 (debut)

Now You See Me 2 - 14 (down 2)

Warcraft - 7/3 (2D/3D) total 10 (down 19)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 7 (down 9)

X-Men: Apocalypse - 5 (no change)

Me Before You - 2 (down 14)

Alice Through the Looking Glass - 1 (down 7)

[Maxmoser3]

The BFG:28 million 3-day(33 million 4-day), The Purge:Election Year:19 million 3-day(25 million 4-day), Tarzan:14 million 3-day(17 million 4-day). 

[Maxmoser3]

On June 23, 2016 at 7:45 PM, UrosepsisFace said:

Lights Out is PG-13. I wonder if that will help or hurt it.

PG-13 horror makes profit most of the time. But both Lights Out, and Don't Breathe look like potential hits. Lights Out I think has potential to debut like The Visit but will debut like The Gallows most likely. Don't Breathe has potential to debut like The Evil Dead remake, and possibly hold up and lead on Labor Day weekend as well which has happened for horror films in 2012,2009, 2007, 2003, and 2001. Plus Sony does solid marketing on horror films. WB is good withJames Wan.

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

The BFG:28 million 3-day(33 million 4-day), The Purge:Election Year:19 million 3-day(25 million 4-day), Tarzan:14 million 3-day(17 million 4-day). 

If those numbers hold up, I think Dory taking a third weekend in a row comes into play.

[WrathOfHan]

All for the 3 day:

 

Finding Dory: 44M

The Purge: 24M

The BFG: 22M

Independence Day: 20.5M

The Legend of Tarzan: 19M

The Shallows: 9.5M

Central Intelligence: 9M

Free State of Jones: 4.2M

The Conjuring: 3.9M

Now You See Me: 3.1M

 

[mahnamahna]

7/1-7/4

1. Finding Dory: $47 million/$63.5 million ($396 million)
2. The BFG: $30 million/$40 million 
3. The Purge - Election Year: $22 million/$28 million 
4. Independence Day - Resurgence: $21 million/$28 million ($91 million) 
5. The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$19 million 
6. Central Intelligence: $11 million/$14 million ($95 million)
7. The Shallows: $9.5 million/$12 million ($37 million) 
8. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million/$6 million ($18 million)
9. The Conjuring 2: $4 million/$5 million ($96 million)
10. Now You See Me 2: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($60 million)

7/8-7/10

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $88 million 
2. Finding Dory: $24.5 million ($432 million) 
3. The BFG: $13.5 million ($59 million) 
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $11 million 
5. Independence Day - Resurgence: $8.5 million ($103 million) 
6. The Purge - Election Year: $8 million ($39 million) 
7. The Legend of Tarzan: $7 million ($30 million)
8. The Shallows: $6 million ($45 million) 
9. Central Intelligence: $5.5 million ($103 million)
10. Free State of Jones: $3 million ($23 million)

7/15-7/17

1. Ghostbusters: $63 million 
2. The Secret Lives of Pets: $54 million ($199 million)
3. Finding Dory: $16 million ($464 million) 
4. The BFG: $9 million ($77 million)
5. The Infiltrator: $5 million 
6. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4.5 million ($21 million) 
7. The Shallows: $4 million ($53 million)
8. The Purge - Election Year: $3.5 million ($46 million)
9. The Legend of Tarzan: $3 million ($37 million) 
10. The Purge - Election Year: $3.5 million ($46 million) 

7/22-7/24

1. Star Trek Beyond: $67 million 
2. Ghostbusters: $32 million ($129 million) 
3. Ice Age - Collision Course: $31.5 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $25 million ($242 million) 
5. Lights Out: $12 million 
6. Finding Dory: $8.5 million ($481 million)
7. The BFG: $5 million ($87 million)
8. The Infiltrator: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $2 million ($25 million) 
10. The Shallows: $2 million ($57 million) 

7/29-7/31

1. Jason Bourne: $80.5 million 
2. Star Trek Beyond: $28 million ($126 million)
3. Bad Moms: $22 million 
4. Ice Age - Collision Course: $17 million ($66 million) 
5. Ghostbusters: $15 million ($160 million)
6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $14 million ($270 million)
7. Finding Dory: $6 million ($493 million) 
8. Lights Out: $4 million ($21 million)
9. The BFG: $3.5 million ($94 million) 
10. Nerve: $3 million 

8/5-8/7

1. Suicide Squad: $114 million 
2. Jason Bourne: $34 million ($150 million) 
3. Bad Moms: $15.5 million ($51 million) 
4. Star Trek Beyond: $12 million ($151 million) 
5. Ice Age - Collision Course: $10.5 million ($85 million) 
6. The Founder: $9 million 
7. Ghostbusters: $8.5 million ($177 million) 
8. The Secret Lives of Pets: $8 million ($284 million)
9. Nine Lives: $6 million 
10. Finding Dory: $4 million ($500 million)

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $46 million ($197 million) 
2. Pete's Dragon: $33 million
3. Sausage Party: $28 million 
4. Jason Bourne: $21 million ($186 million) 
5. Florence Foster Jenkins: $13.5 million 
6. Bad Moms: $10.5 million ($68 million) 
7. Star Trek Beyond: $7.5 million ($164 million) 
8. The Founder: $5 million ($17 million)
9. Ghostbusters: $5 million ($186 million) 
10. Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($92 million) 

8/19-8/21

1. Suicide Squad: $26.5 million ($238 million)
2. Ben-Hur: $21 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $18 million ($57 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $17 million 
5. War Dogs: $15 million 
6. Jason Bourne: $13.5 million ($206 million) 
7. Florence Foster Jenkins: $9 million ($26 million) 
8. Sausage Party: $8 million ($43 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $6.5 million ($77 million) 
10. Star Trek Beyond: $4 million ($170 million) 

8/26-8/28

1. Don't Breathe: $23 million 
2. Suicide Squad: $17 million ($264 million) 
3. Pete's Dragon: $13.5 million ($75 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $11.5 million ($32 million) 
5. Ben-Hur: $10 million ($35 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $8.5 million ($218 million) 
7. War Dogs: $8 million ($27 million) 
8. Florence Foster Jenkins: $7 million ($36 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $5 million ($84 million) 
10. Mechanic - Resurrection: $4 million 

9/2-9/5

1. The Light Between Oceans: $23 million/$30 million 
2. Pete's Dragon: $15 million/$21 million ($100 million) 
3. Suicide Squad: $13.5 million/$17.5 million ($288 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($49 million) 
5. Don't Breathe: $9.5 million/$12 million ($40 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $7 million/$8.5 million ($230 million) 
7. Florence Foster Jenkins: $6.5 million/$8 million ($46 million) 
8. Ben-Hur: $6 million/$7.5 million ($45 million) 
9. War Dogs: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($36 million) 
10. Morgan: $4.5 million/$5.5 million
11. Bad Moms: $4 million/$4.75 million ($90 million) 
12. Solace: $3 million/$3.5 million 

[department store basement]

29 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

• Nerve: $3 million 

 

I think this number is too low, hype has really increased recently.

 

Also, I can't see Hands of Stone missing the top 10 like you think it will. It'll do better than Mechanic Resurrection for sure.

Edited June 26, 2016 by department store basement

[Blankments]

1. Finding Dory - 50.3M
2. The BFG - 34.4M
3. The Purge: Election Year - 27.6M
4. The Legend of Tarzan - 21.6M
5. Independence Day: Resurgence - 18.1M
6. Central Intelligence - 11.1M
7. The Shallows - 8.7M
8. The Conjuring 2 - 4.4M
9. Free State of Jones - 3.4M
10. Now You See Me 2 - 3.1M
11. Swiss Army Man - 2.0M
12. The Jungle Book - 1.1M

Edited June 27, 2016 by Jeff Goldblank

[department store basement]

16 minutes ago, Jeff Goldblank said:

The Jungle Book - 1.1M

 

Seriously? It was #14 last week and you think it'll jump above TMNT, Warcraft, and Apocalypse?

Edited June 27, 2016 by department store basement

[Blankments]

Should be pretty popular at Drive-ins with BFG and Dory

[Ezen Baklattan]

1. Finding Dory - $40.2m
2. The Purge: Election Year - $23.6m
3. Independence Day: Resurgence - $21.3m
4. The BFG - $19.3m
5. The Legend of Tarzan - $16.3m
6. Central Intelligence - $10.8m
7. The Shallows - $8.6m
8. The Conjuring 2 - $3.5m
9. Free State of Jones - $3.4m
10. Now You See Me 2 - $2.5m

[GuardianDevil]

I imagine Disney is gonna find some creative way to get TJB over Deadpool.

[dudalb]

On ‎6‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 9:58 AM, Spaghetti said:

1. Finding Dory - $40.2m
2. The Purge: Election Year - $23.6m
3. Independence Day: Resurgence - $21.3m
4. The BFG - $19.3m
5. The Legend of Tarzan - $16.3m
6. Central Intelligence - $10.8m
7. The Shallows - $8.6m
8. The Conjuring 2 - $3.5m
9. Free State of Jones - $3.4m
10. Now You See Me 2 - $2.5m

You are grosteauly over estimating IDR. WIll probably end up 5,with Dory, BFG,Tarzan,and Purge coming in ahead of.