Minions OS Thread | 1 BILLION WW CROSSED!! | 6m weekend | $811.4m OS total

[tupek]

Americans spend millions and millions of dollars buying things "Made in China" so I think it is fair to see movies "Made in Hollywood " taking home a lot of money from Chinese people. Every country has its own rules for imported things and foreign movies also have to respect those rules.

Yep. They must respect the rules, or byebye...

[Amadeus]

It needs to reach the 900m before China release to secure the big B. Long way to go
Hopefully it'll reach 750 by sunday. 

Edited July 22, 2015 by Amadeus

[keysersoze123]

"Thank you for taking the time and effort" = God save MS Excel

 

Europa 260 (Italy opens in late august)

Asia/Pacific 130 (If will do well in Japan and SK)

South America 120

Rest of the world 70

Dom 320 (maybe)

Tot 900+China - I don't know but could say 100/150 so 1000/1050

 

Speaking about the comparison with Frozen I think its 330 in Japan+SK, combined with the strong performances in Europa and USA making it unbeatable WW for all the announced future movies (until the sequel arrives), at least if they don't have:

- Very favorable exchange rate

- Insane run in USA

- Insane run in China

 

Way too low in SA. I think its going for record number in SA considering its setting all time records in several markets. I am thinking 200m+ there.

[MinaTakla]

Am preparing an excel sheet with final projections per each country - will post it very soon and would love your thoughts on it!

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Way too low in SA. I think its going for record number in SA considering its setting all time records in several markets. I am thinking 200m+ there.

$200m+ in LA is a lock but $200m+ in SA is impossible for any movie

[edroger3]

$200m+ in LA is a lock but $200m+ in SA is impossible for any movie

Obviously. Mexico and Central America are included into "Rest of World" in my table. This could be wrong. Maybe split it into "America - DOM" (combined with SA) and "Africa"  is a better solution.

[keysersoze123]

$200m+ in LA is a lock but $200m+ in SA is impossible for any movie

 

You are right. I meant LA. I would break Intl as

 

Europe

Asia

Pacific

LA

Africa( very tiny but cannot be clubbed with any other region).

[Asyulus]

Hmm, what is the tracking of China?

 

This movie?

[MinaTakla]

Hmm, what is the tracking of China?

 

This movie?

From the China thread, firedeep predicts 700 million yuan for it:

 

July looks to reach 5.5B.

 

Projected 2015 year-end box office 44~45B $7B+, 48~51% YOY increase:

Jan ~ Jun 20.2B

July 5.5B

Aug 3.6B

Sep 4.1B

Oct 4B

Nov 3~3.5B (last year was 2.28B)

Dec 4B (no major bomb from local films)

 

According to SARFT's report, total box office of imports should be 10.8B as of now. (though I have counted a bit more than 10.6B, 19 quotas have been used). Local share is 54% as of last weekend.

 

Predictions for some major imports for the rest of the year:

Terminator: Genisys ----- 800m

Assassination + A Zori Zdes Tikhie --- 100m

Mission Impossible 5 ---- 1.5B

Minions ----- 700m

Pixels ---- 300m

Inside Out ----- 400m

The Fantastic Four ------ 500m

Ant-Man ----- 600m

Autobahn + Maze Runner 2 + Hitman ---- 1B

Spectre ---- 700m

The Walk + Everest ----- 500m

That's 6.7B+10.8B = 1.75B total, of course there might be some buyout releases, making it 1.8B.

 

Market share of imported films for 2015 should be about 40~41% (around 17B) or a bit more if something breaks out, one of the lower ones of the past ten years, about 8B less than local films.

 

I think, even without SARFT's control on release dates, imports share is very hard to reach 50%, as now only 50~60 imported titles are getting released each year, vs 300 local ones.

 

Without any censorship (on both local and foreign films), without SARFT's control on the release of foreign films, say China releases as many foreign films as possible just like South Korea and Japan, I think in the first few years, imports share could surpass 50% maybe even get close to 60%, but in ten years, with the quality of local films dramatically advancing, the market would be still dominated by Chinese language films (though maybe many of those would be co-productions), easily. In short, without any censorship, protection on local films would be unnecessary IMO: unlike any other country not-named the US, China has a huge market, allowing the possibility of a film industry as strong as Hollywood and its own rich history and culture, providing endless subjects for films. 

 

However, it is impossible for SARFT and other authorities to (totally) lift their censorship. Ultimately, the so-called protection on local films is just an excuse. The censorship is there to manipulate people's minds so the current ruling can last as long as possible.

Edited July 23, 2015 by MinaTakla

[pepsa]

How is the toxic wom doing?

No in many markets it's having great hold, specialy in LA

[MinaTakla]

How is the toxic wom doing?

No in many markets it's having great hold, specialy in LA

Am currently doing a report market by market and will post it here soon - with analysis of which markets it over and under performed.

At the moment only 6 out of 56 markets saw sharp/relatively big drops while the rest have been very good to great.

Detailed excel sheet and country by country projections coming right up!

[edroger3]

[Asyulus]

Only $1.020b?

[MinaTakla]

Your predictions are close to mine - but am seeing Europe with at least 290-300 and LA 200-210.

[MinaTakla]

Only $1.020b?

My calculations came to around 1.060.

Will post'em soon with a breakdown too. Excel rules.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Your predictions are close to mine - but am seeing Europe with at least 290-300 and LA 200-210.

I agree with you about LA numbers, $200m+ should happen there. It still has to open in Peru and it is doing fantastic elsewhere

[PierreHP]

For a moment I thought that it might beat Frozen...    

I like Minions but it seriously doesn't deserve to become the highest grossing animated film

Edited July 23, 2015 by PierreHP

[MinaTakla]

For a moment I thought that it might beat Frozen...    

I like Minions but it seriously doesn't deserve to become the highest grossing animated film

It won't beat Frozen - it will be maybe 200 million behind it WW

Frozen made 1.3 billion WW 

[MinaTakla]

Detailed country by country Minions OS projections coming up now!

Edited July 25, 2015 by MinaTakla

[MinaTakla]

Here are my country-by-country projections for Minions OS and WW!

 

These projections are based on the weekly drops and trends in each market - I went very conservative with China (upcoming market) as a worst case scenario to make the projections realistic as possible.

Would love your feedback on the list below especially from those closely following OS grosses and/or specific markets.