Minions OS Thread | 1 BILLION WW CROSSED!! | 6m weekend | $811.4m OS total

[POTUS 2020]

Wow - 40 m in Japan? I didn't expect it to do more than 15-20 m. when making these projections

with a 5,5m 2 day weekend, summer weekdays and obon coming up its likely to do 8-10x this weekend

[MinaTakla]

Thanks a lot to Henry, Kylin, James, Lawrence and Tower for their valuable feedback.

Here's the updated projections as of July 26, 2015. 

Updated countries are: China, Japan, SK and Israel. Would welcome your feedback.

 

Edited August 1, 2015 by MinaTakla

[PierreHP]

Thanks a lot to Henry, Kylin, James, Lawrence and Tower for their valuable feedback.

Here's the updated projections as of July 26, 2015. 

Updated countries are: China, Japan, SK and Israel. Would welcome your feedback.

 

It won't earn just $100m in China.....    

Worst case projection is at least $150m in.

Edited August 2, 2015 by PierreHP

[MinaTakla]

MINIONS: $567.3M Overseas Total / $854.6M Global Total #Minions

Great number!

[Olive]

70M OS week

Edited August 2, 2015 by Kylin Zhang

[MinaTakla]

 

70M OS week

 

Kylin, does this mean Minions has a chance at hitting 1B before China?

Hmmm....

Might have a shot I think but not so sure.

[A District 3 Engineer]

Do you think 1B can happen for this?

Edited August 2, 2015 by A D3 Rebel

[Olive]

Kylin, does this mean Minions has a chance at hitting 1B before China?

Hmmm....

Might have a shot I think but not so sure.

Not sure before China opening, but very likely will hit 1B without China gross.

[MinaTakla]

Not sure before China opening, but very likely will hit 1B without China gross.

Yeah, Japan and SK will play a major role in making this happen or not I think. If it holds great there, then maybe this happens before China..

[MinaTakla]

Quick calculation - if we remove the Japan and SK grosses (as per the estimates we kinda know so far) from this week's OS gross, Minions would have dropped -37% from last week. If we add them, then it's a -22% drop.

The week before, Minions had dropped -34% from its previous OS week.

Edited August 2, 2015 by MinaTakla

[Godzilla]

$1B will be done easily. Could go as high as $1.15B+.

[jiangsen]

From BO Global Report:

 

Minions opened well in both Japan and South Korea this week, grabbing $39.1 million (-14%) across 62 territories for an overseas total of $567.3 million and a worldwide total of $854.6 million. Minions is now the 9th highest-grossing animated film of all-time worldwide passing Shrek The Third ($799M). Next up is Ice Age: Continental Drift ($880M). Japan opened at #2 with $6 million behind local manga adaptation Attack on Titan. South Korea opened at #3 with $6.4 million behind MI5 and Assassination. That opening is 5 times bigger than Despicable Me 2’s opening weekend. Germany ($49M cume) and Argentina ($33.8M cume) both held onto #1 for the fifth consecutive weekend, and Minions is the highest-grossing film of all-time (in USD) in Argentina. Five more territories to release: Slovenia (August 13), Italy (August 27), Turkey (September 4), China (September 13), and Greece (September 24).

[POTUS 2020]

possible scenario

OS - J 33m, should do 75 more

Japan 30m more

domestic 30m

That gets it to 1B

 

Italy Slovenia Greece turkey adds 30m

up to china to do 170m(possible) to take it to 1.2B(10th)

885 OS(8th) 315 Dom

[MinaTakla]

possible scenario

OS - J 33m, should do 75 more

Japan 30m more

domestic 30m

That gets it to 1B

 

Italy Slovenia Greece turkey adds 30m

up to china to do 170m(possible) to take it to 1.2B(10th)

885 OS(8th) 315 Dom

Interesting anaysis. I too think it has a decent shot at hitting 1B without its China gross (as Kylin pointed out maybe reaching 1B not before its China opening but without its China gross)

If SK grosses 15 m and Japan gets 30-35m this has a very good chance of happening.

[efialtes76]

with a 5,5m 2 day weekend, summer weekdays and obon coming up its likely to do 8-10x this weekend

Minions opened on Friday...

[POTUS 2020]

Minions opened on Friday...

Yes but weekends are counted as 2 days in Japan. Multipiler is taken from sat-sun. One reason why the multipliers are high, the other is Japan is not frontloaded. Friday opener is like a Thursday in dom. Separate categories in dom, weekend(3days) and 4 day weekend. same w japan.

 

 

It wound being just 4.4m/6m.  The discount day threw me off. I still think it does 35m+ though

Midweeks in summer are huge in Japan, especially with the younger demo.. M-F could do 50% more than the prior weekend.

Obon effect will kick in this weekend. it could hold better than -25%. then next midweek will be huge, dropping very little from this week with little competition for this demo. JW will skew older.

 

12m by Friday. looks like its holding well today compared to the top 5 as it did yesterday. 1.1m-1.3m est

15,5m sunday

21m next Friday

24m at end of Obon(16th) with 3 more weeks of summer ahead

If wom is decent as early holds suggest it could be above 27m on the 16th

[POTUS 2020]

dbl post

Edited August 3, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[MinaTakla]

Yes but weekends are counted as 2 days in Japan. Multipiler is taken from sat-sun. One reason why the multipliers are high, the other is Japan is not frontloaded. Friday opener is like a Thursday in dom. Separate categories in dom, weekend(3days) and 4 day weekend. same w japan.

 

 

It wound being just 4.4m/6m.  The discount day threw me off. I still think it does 35m+ though

Midweeks in summer are huge in Japan, especially with the younger demo.. M-F could do 50% more than the prior weekend.

Obon effect will kick in this weekend. it could hold better than -25%. then next midweek will be huge, dropping very little from this week with little competition for this demo. JW will skew older.

 

12m by Friday. looks like its holding well today compared to the top 5 as it did yesterday. 1.1m-1.3m est

15,5m sunday

21m next Friday

24m at end of Obon(16th) with 3 more weeks of summer ahead

If wom is decent as early holds suggest it could be above 27m on the 16th

Realistic analysis. Am thinking very worst case would be 27m in Japan, with 30-35 being more realistic and over 35 as best case.

[POTUS 2020]

Realistic analysis. Am thinking very worst case would be 27m in Japan, with 30-35 being more realistic and over 35 as best case.

I like todays numbers, first Monday's can often tell a lot for a BO run

I think the weekend would have been 5m+ w/o a Friday open. I'm sticking to my guns, 8x for a base

I bet you 1 indian rupee = 2 yen or 1/70 of a japanese movie ticket it does 40m+

 

China will have its first $150 animation movie this month with TMK

Minions beat that with the buzz its getting. 170m happens. and so does 1.2B WW

we''ll see...

 

good job on the table

Edited August 3, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[MinaTakla]

I like todays numbers, first Monday's can often tell on a lot for a BO run

I think the weekend would have been 5m+ w/o a Friday open. I'm sticking to my guns, 8x for a base

I bet you 1 indian rupee = 2 yen or 1/70 of a japanese movie ticket it does 40m+

 

China will have its first $150 animation movie this month with TMK

Minions beat that with the buzz its getting. 170m happens. and so does 1.2B WW

we''ll see...

 

good job on the table

Thank you!

Very interesting and challenge accepted 

China though - am sticking to 100-125 for now (I previously had it at 75m in the table but you & Kylin convinced me). But you know way more than me about China so if Minions has more buzz than TMK (am assuming you're referring to the want to see index on the app) then wow 150-175 would be beyond my wildest projections. That would also bode well for KP3 in this case which will make more than Minions by a good margin.