Jump to content

Neo

2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

Recommended Posts

Longshot predictions for the top 10 Summer movies of 2017. Because God knows how dull this year's Summer was, and that even though the BO landscape at this exact moment is pretty fun (+ December, February and March are looking seriously kick-ass months), it's never too early to start being wrong.

 

Looking forward to visiting this post 10 months from now and realizing how far I missed the mark. Without further ado:

 

01. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - I've been burned 2 years in a row by predicting a Marvel movie to top the Summer and that movie failing me. But, in a world where "superhero fatigue" grows in number of times people have said such thing (and such thing never actually comes to fruition), Guardians is one of those superhero franchises that have the spark they need to truly succeed: uniqueness. People adored the 1st one (as do I), and they made it the highest grossing film of Summer 2014 against all expectations. Despite opening in the then very untested waters of August, having to deal w/the Turtles, no real starpower at the time, and featuring a bunch of unknown characters. All of which are problems that Guardians 2 doesn't have to worry about. Not to mention, the 1st weekend of May has been a miracle worker for Marvel, and there's no real potential juggernaut-sized nostalgiarific blockbuster w/decade(s) of anticipation like a Finding Dory or a Jurassic World to consume all of the Summer's money. And c'mon, Baby fucking Groot. 380-400M

 

02. Despicable Me 3 - As proven by 2016, if there's one genre that gives superheroes a run for their money, it's animation. The highest grossing film of the year is, of course, animated. And the third highest grossing is THE breakout hit of the Summer season in The Secret Life Of Pets. Now, Illumination, speaking of giving things a run for their money, does just that to Disney/Pixar's potential monopoly rule of the animated genre, and even though I don't think Despicable Me 3 will go as high as DM2 or Pets, I do think that it'll beat Minions, and that it will rule w/an iron fist due to, above everything, zero competition. Cars 3 is the toughest competitor it has, for fuck's sake. 345-365M

 

03. Spider-Man: Homecoming - I still don't know much about what to think of this one. I LOVED Spidey in Civil War, and general consensus is that pretty much everybody else did too. And Civil War is a movie that, just for the record, made over a billion dollars, so that gave him quite a lot of exposure before his film. People have been buzzing about this one, Spidey is always one of the easiest superhero sells (even TASM series didn't do awful financially, though TASM2 only barely crossed 200M DOM), and this one does have the goldmine of Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark. My problem, though, is that Apes, Dunkirk, Dark Tower and Alien are all opening within 4 weeks from Homecoming. I fear those will all be much greater deterrents to Spidey's legs than expected. Margin for this one is quite big because it's still a major question mark. 290-330M

 

04. Wonder Woman - The ultimate test to the DCEU and the golden age of comic book movies, where jackshit is precisely the amount of female hero led films so far. Though I don't necessarily blame the studios, given the rich track record of the likes of Supergirl, Catwoman and Elektra, but the point remains. The marketing has been on point, and Gal Gadot was probably the person that took the lesser bulk of damage from Batman V Superman, which actually made a good job of getting people pumped for the film. But really, if WW is going to follow the same suit as every DCEU film (yes, even Suicide Squad to a certain degree), it'll have a BIG OW, and then lose its legs. Though I think it'll be leggier than the others. 290-320M

 

05. Transformers: The Last Knight - I mean, it's Transformers, at this point its a given cause. Though I'd laugh in sadomasochistically painful manners if it bombed. It'll still do less than Age Of Extinction, anyway. 230M

 

06. War For The Planet Of The Apes - If Dawn was just filler for the grand finale, one can only imagine how good War will be. I definitely see an increase here, not by much (especially due to the tough competition on the following weeks - and Dawn didn't have the greatest legs, after all), but one nonetheless. Hopefully the film is so good that the Academy just gives up on snubbing Serkis every year. That's what I really want out of it. 210-220M

 

07. Dunkirk - It's Nolan, it's WWII and it's HARRY STYLES UIHDUHWSDIJH~~~~. I will say this: Nolan was smart in casting someone w/that much of a social media weight on the younger demographic, making this movie somewhat more four-quadrant than it would've been without him... I guess. Regardless, I'm not expecting it to match Saving Private Ryan all the way, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did either. The teaser trailer, mock the laughing extra all you want, was the perfect move at the perfect time. If it's as good as it looks, sky's the limit for how far can it actually go in spite of its genre-centered limitations. 200-215M

 

08. Alien: Covenant - 1st weekend(s) of August have been proved as deadly in the last few years. GOTG, TMNT, Compton, and Squad were all mega hits in their respective years. Now, I wouldn't quickly call Alien: Covenant the next Straight Outta Compton. But, considering that, despite mediocre WOM Prometheus grossed 126.5M (enough to break into its year's top 10 of the Summer), Ridley Scott did just come off The Martian, and that Prometheus came out in early June while Covenant comes out in August and has all of that month to leg it out as far as it wants (or can), I see quite a lot of potential here. Now, sure, it all depends on wheater or not is it, you know, a fucking good movie, but if it is, it'll be consumed like Nutella. 140-160M

 

09. Baywatch - Don't EVER count out The Rock. After San Andreas and Central Intelligence, you'd be an idiot if you did. Let alone when he's starring in a movie based on a 90's TV staple. Ok, maybe Baywatch isn't a brand that has that much of a clout on millenials and all, but still. It'll probably do slightly better numbers than Central Intelligence, and that's all it needs to do to be successful, really. 135-140M

 

10. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - It'll be more dignified than Alice Through The Looking Glass, no question. The teaser, despite no Jack Sparrow, generated quite some buzz. And the franchise, despite the constant downfall since Dead Man's Chest, is probably still something that if you put a plate of in the table, people will eat it up, regardless of how the flavor of Depp tastes nowadays. Again, far from a great performer, it'll be around on par w/Ghostbusters, I reckon. But still enough to just crack the top 10. 130-135M

 

HM's: Cars 3, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Dark Tower

Edited by MCKillswitch123
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 2016-07-27 at 2:18 AM, cookie said:

Expecting Guardians to at least stay flat thanks to goodwill from the first. Increase will depend on marketing and WOM. Sure enough.

 

Fifty Shades, Fast 8, Pirates, Despicable Me, Transformers all see noticeable declines, some more than others. Good call

 

Kong and Beauty & The Beast will dominate March and everything else with the exception of Wolverine will be crushed under them. Out of the two Beast will have bigger opening and better legs. Logan made more than Kong but my BATB predict was correct

 

Kingsman pulls a Jump Street and surprises. :(

 

Spider-Man will lead July with $300m and Apes comes second with over $200m but no more than $250m. Dunkirk will do somewhat better than Interstellar, $200m. Two out of three ain't bad

 

Justice League will open less than BvS, but holiday legs will make its gross about even. I was right on the first part, at least *shrug*

 

Episode VIII will decrease from Force Awakens, but OW will be in the same range. Remains to be seen

 

Bad Boys 3, World War Z 2 and Uncharted will not make their release dates. Lo and behold.

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 15/11/2016 at 1:51 AM, MCKillswitch123 said:

Longshot predictions for the top 10 Summer movies of 2017. Because God knows how dull this year's Summer was, and that even though the BO landscape at this exact moment is pretty fun (+ December, February and March are looking seriously kick-ass months), it's never too early to start being wrong.

 

Looking forward to visiting this post 10 months from now and realizing how far I missed the mark. Without further ado:

 

01. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - I've been burned 2 years in a row by predicting a Marvel movie to top the Summer and that movie failing me. But, in a world where "superhero fatigue" grows in number of times people have said such thing (and such thing never actually comes to fruition), Guardians is one of those superhero franchises that have the spark they need to truly succeed: uniqueness. People adored the 1st one (as do I), and they made it the highest grossing film of Summer 2014 against all expectations. Despite opening in the then very untested waters of August, having to deal w/the Turtles, no real starpower at the time, and featuring a bunch of unknown characters. All of which are problems that Guardians 2 doesn't have to worry about. Not to mention, the 1st weekend of May has been a miracle worker for Marvel, and there's no real potential juggernaut-sized nostalgiarific blockbuster w/decade(s) of anticipation like a Finding Dory or a Jurassic World to consume all of the Summer's money. And c'mon, Baby fucking Groot. 380-400M

 

02. Despicable Me 3 - As proven by 2016, if there's one genre that gives superheroes a run for their money, it's animation. The highest grossing film of the year is, of course, animated. And the third highest grossing is THE breakout hit of the Summer season in The Secret Life Of Pets. Now, Illumination, speaking of giving things a run for their money, does just that to Disney/Pixar's potential monopoly rule of the animated genre, and even though I don't think Despicable Me 3 will go as high as DM2 or Pets, I do think that it'll beat Minions, and that it will rule w/an iron fist due to, above everything, zero competition. Cars 3 is the toughest competitor it has, for fuck's sake. 345-365M

 

03. Spider-Man: Homecoming - I still don't know much about what to think of this one. I LOVED Spidey in Civil War, and general consensus is that pretty much everybody else did too. And Civil War is a movie that, just for the record, made over a billion dollars, so that gave him quite a lot of exposure before his film. People have been buzzing about this one, Spidey is always one of the easiest superhero sells (even TASM series didn't do awful financially, though TASM2 only barely crossed 200M DOM), and this one does have the goldmine of Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark. My problem, though, is that Apes, Dunkirk, Dark Tower and Alien are all opening within 4 weeks from Homecoming. I fear those will all be much greater deterrents to Spidey's legs than expected. Margin for this one is quite big because it's still a major question mark. 290-330M

 

04. Wonder Woman - The ultimate test to the DCEU and the golden age of comic book movies, where jackshit is precisely the amount of female hero led films so far. Though I don't necessarily blame the studios, given the rich track record of the likes of Supergirl, Catwoman and Elektra, but the point remains. The marketing has been on point, and Gal Gadot was probably the person that took the lesser bulk of damage from Batman V Superman, which actually made a good job of getting people pumped for the film. But really, if WW is going to follow the same suit as every DCEU film (yes, even Suicide Squad to a certain degree), it'll have a BIG OW, and then lose its legs. Though I think it'll be leggier than the others. 290-320M

 

05. Transformers: The Last Knight - I mean, it's Transformers, at this point its a given cause. Though I'd laugh in sadomasochistically painful manners if it bombed. It'll still do less than Age Of Extinction, anyway. 230M

 

06. War For The Planet Of The Apes - If Dawn was just filler for the grand finale, one can only imagine how good War will be. I definitely see an increase here, not by much (especially due to the tough competition on the following weeks - and Dawn didn't have the greatest legs, after all), but one nonetheless. Hopefully the film is so good that the Academy just gives up on snubbing Serkis every year. That's what I really want out of it. 210-220M

 

07. Dunkirk - It's Nolan, it's WWII and it's HARRY STYLES UIHDUHWSDIJH~~~~. I will say this: Nolan was smart in casting someone w/that much of a social media weight on the younger demographic, making this movie somewhat more four-quadrant than it would've been without him... I guess. Regardless, I'm not expecting it to match Saving Private Ryan all the way, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did either. The teaser trailer, mock the laughing extra all you want, was the perfect move at the perfect time. If it's as good as it looks, sky's the limit for how far can it actually go in spite of its genre-centered limitations. 200-215M

 

08. Alien: Covenant - 1st weekend(s) of August have been proved as deadly in the last few years. GOTG, TMNT, Compton, and Squad were all mega hits in their respective years. Now, I wouldn't quickly call Alien: Covenant the next Straight Outta Compton. But, considering that, despite mediocre WOM Prometheus grossed 126.5M (enough to break into its year's top 10 of the Summer), Ridley Scott did just come off The Martian, and that Prometheus came out in early June while Covenant comes out in August and has all of that month to leg it out as far as it wants (or can), I see quite a lot of potential here. Now, sure, it all depends on wheater or not is it, you know, a fucking good movie, but if it is, it'll be consumed like Nutella. 140-160M

 

09. Baywatch - Don't EVER count out The Rock. After San Andreas and Central Intelligence, you'd be an idiot if you did. Let alone when he's starring in a movie based on a 90's TV staple. Ok, maybe Baywatch isn't a brand that has that much of a clout on millenials and all, but still. It'll probably do slightly better numbers than Central Intelligence, and that's all it needs to do to be successful, really. 135-140M

 

10. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - It'll be more dignified than Alice Through The Looking Glass, no question. The teaser, despite no Jack Sparrow, generated quite some buzz. And the franchise, despite the constant downfall since Dead Man's Chest, is probably still something that if you put a plate of in the table, people will eat it up, regardless of how the flavor of Depp tastes nowadays. Again, far from a great performer, it'll be around on par w/Ghostbusters, I reckon. But still enough to just crack the top 10. 130-135M

 

HM's: Cars 3, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Dark Tower

I did good with GOTG V2 and Homecoming, and missed literally everything else. Way to go, me. (Then again, I wasn't counting on Alien moving from August to May, but still.) But I am happy that I got closer to Dunkirk's total than a lot of other people.

 

2018's Summer, while we're at it:

 

01. Fallen Kingdom - I see an Avengers to Ultron decrease for this for around 450M

02. Infinity War - One of the top 5 OW's of all time, followed by not so great legs for a range of 425-450M

03. Incredibles 2 - If it gets a great marketing push, it could challenge Toy Story 3 numbers

04. Solo - No question this is the least interested anyone's been in any SW movie post-TFA, but it'll still do 350+

05. Deadpool 2 - A true wildcard, as it could pull a Guardians 2, but realistically, too much competition = 310-320's range

06. Ant-Man 2 - Every solo MCU sequel except IM2 (which came close enough) has increased, I see this one going past 200M

07. Mission Impossible 6 - It may fall from Rogue Nation a little bit, but it's still getting past 180M at least

08. Hotel Transylvania 3 - Summer weekdays + not a lot of family competition may allow it to stay flat or come close to HT2

09. Christopher Robin - It's not a straight up Winnie The Pooh movie, so I don't think it does a lot more than 130M

10. Ocean's Eight - I'm seeing this going the Ghostbusters way, so something around 125-130M

Edited by MCKillswitch123
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.