2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

[MCKillswitch123]

2017 will be bigger than 2016, but smaller than 2015. Star Wars, Guardians, BATB and DM3 are top 5 locks, at this point. I would assume Spider-Man and Justice League will fight for the 5th spot, w/Wonder Woman and Lego Batman as dark horses.

 

2018 will be bigger than every preceeding year up until 2015 as well. Infinity War P1, Han Solo, Jurassic World II, Deadpool 2 and Toy Story 4 are the likely top 5.

[ProtoMan]

15 hours ago, cannastop said:

Anyone want to speculate about 2018?

 

With 2018,  I think this will be the first year in a while where a Star Wars movie will not be #1 domestically.

 

My predictions for now:

 

• I consider myself a Star Wars fanboy but have no interest in the Han Solo movie.  I'm suspecting others will feel the same.  For me, Harrison Ford was the reason why Han Solo was awesome, the idea of someone doing an imitation of him is not that appealing to me.  It simply doesn't have any hook unlike Rouge One being the first spin-off and with Vader appearing in it.  At the end, I will probably go see it but think this a movie the general GA will skip.

           
        Han Solo - 350M (easily could go lower if it's bad)

 

• With Black Panther, I think the goodwill from Civil War combined with the majority of the cast being black and a release date during black history month, there will be some novelty and hype surrounding this movie. Especially with the directing talent of Coogler, it could be special.

           

         Black Panther - 300M+ 

 

The rest:

 

Jurassic World 2 - 430M

Avengers: IW Part 1 - 420M

Toy Story 4 - 350M

Deadpool - 320M

Mary Poppins - 300M

Grinch - 250M

Ant-Man - 200M

Animated Spider-Man - 180M

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2016 by ProtoMan

[Arlborn]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

2017 will be bigger than 2016, but smaller than 2015. Star Wars, Guardians, BATB and DM3 are top 5 locks, at this point. I would assume Spider-Man and Justice League will fight for the 5th spot, w/Wonder Woman and Lego Batman as dark horses.

 

The only lock there is Star Wars to be honest. Plenty of possible dark horses in 2017 imho

 

BATB is pretty close to a lock though, given the buzz the very small tease created. Not a lock though.

[Giesi]

Just imagine the Han Solo Spinoff being the top grossing moviein 2 years, it would mean that the Star Wars franchise will be responsible for the #1 domestic film in 5 consecutive years. The slayage has only just begun!

[ChipDerby]

40 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Just imagine the Han Solo Spinoff being the top grossing moviein 2 years, it would mean that the Star Wars franchise will be responsible for the #1 domestic film in 5 consecutive years. The slayage has only just begun!

 

Considering a franchise has never done it in back to back years... I doubt Star Wars will do it for 5 years.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm seeing sub-400M for Han Solo, won't even be in the Top 3 of 2018.

[AniNate]

If it comes out that year Avatar 2 will rule all. I'm sure there will be a ton of disagreement but that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, Arlborn said:

The only lock there is Star Wars to be honest. Plenty of possible dark horses in 2017 imho

 

BATB is pretty close to a lock though, given the buzz the very small tease created. Not a lock though.

 

No way that SW is the only lock, dude. BATB has made the world go batshit crazy just off of one single teaser. I wasn't convinced at first it would even beat The Jungle Book, but now, I sense a juggernaut coming. GOTG kickstarts the Summer, the first one was enormously well loved, Chris fucking Pratt, and there's always a Marvel Studios movie in the top 5, and I'm banking on this being the one, for sure. And Despicable Me is one of if not the biggest animated franchise around, w/all of the franchise's films (the original, DM2 and Minions) joining at least the top 7 of their respective years - DM2 as high as #4 in 2013 -, and post-Secret Life Of Pets' success, it's clear that Illumination has turned into a brand that sells on name alas Pixar/DreamWorks, not to mention the animated race will not be very strong that year (Lego Batman is the only threat to DM3, if I'm honest).

Edited July 27, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[AniNate]

I think DM3 will go below $300 mil. Franchise is starting to wear itself out with the GA.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if it gets a TS3 reception.

[MCKillswitch123]

13 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think DM3 will go below $300 mil. Franchise is starting to wear itself out with the GA.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if it gets a TS3 reception.

 

No, it's not. Minions only did less than DM2 because it sucked. And it still legged itself up to 300M+ off a 110M+ OW. If DM3 is anything closer to either of the main entries' quality than Minions, it'll not crumble the same way.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if gets such reception, but right now, I don't see anymore than a 250M ceiling for it. Plus, the last time that Pixar had a 2nd movie in one year coming out on the Fall/Holiday season, it was The Good Dinosaur. Don't forget that.

Edited July 27, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

If it comes out that year Avatar 2 will rule all. I'm sure there will be a ton of disagreement but that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

 

Avatar was helped by being a 3D novelty and phenomenon.  Since 2009 most theaters have gone away from 3D and if given the choice would get rid of it completely.  

 

Unless there is some magic Cameron has cooked up, I think you are going to see a very large domestic decline for Avatar.  

[AniNate]

That's the thing, I do think Cameron has something else up his sleeve. He's more in tune with pop culture trends than any of us can hope to be

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[Kvikk Lunsj]

1 minute ago, nilephelan said:

 

Avatar was helped by being a 3D novelty and phenomenon.  Since 2009 most theaters have gone away from 3D and if given the choice would get rid of it completely.  

 

Unless there is some magic Cameron has cooked up, I think you are going to see a very large domestic decline for Avatar.  

Even if it hits 500m it should still win the year. 

[AniNate]

 

No, it's not. Minions only did less than DM2 because it sucked. And it still legged itself up to 300M+ off a 110M+ OW. If DM3 is anything closer to either of the main entries' quality than Minions, it'll not crumble the same way.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if gets such reception, but right now, I don't see anymore than a 250M ceiling for it. Plus, the last time that Pixar had a 2nd movie in one year coming out on the Fall/Holiday season, it was The Good Dinosaur. Don't forget that.

You don't need to tell me not to forget that. I just would rather not assume such a scenario, especially since Coco essentially is Pixar's only hope next year.

[Daxtreme]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Considering a franchise has never done it in back to back years... I doubt Star Wars will do it for 5 years.

 

Franchises used to never release movies on consecutive years. It's a relatively recent trend that began with LOTR, a notable exception being Back to the Future part II and III (1989 - 1990).

 

And as with all things recent, "never happened before" should be taken with a grain of salt when the timeframe is 15 years-long.

 

I agree though that 5 years is a bit of a stretch.

[Jonwo]

It'll be interesting how Ready Player One does, I think a lot depends on how the first trailer is received and WB's marketing. DAJK's $75m OW and $280m sounds about right. I imagine we'll probably get the first trailer around Comic Con 2017 with a second trailer with Justice League or Star Wars VIII

[NCsoft]

If Ready Player one, Battle Angel Alita, and Avatar 2 all make it in 2018 (as scheduling seem to indicate right now), that would be a very fascinating Sci-Fi year.

[NCsoft]

On 7/27/2016 at 10:03 AM, WrathOfHan said:

I'm seeing sub-400M for Han Solo, won't even be in the Top 3 of 2018.

Yeah, I think defeated by even Toy Story 4, not even mentioning Jurassic World 2, Avatar 2, Infinity War 1 etc...

Edited July 28, 2016 by NCsoft

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, NCsoft said:

Yeah, I think defeated by even Toy Story 4, not even mentioning Jurassic World 2, Avatar 2, Infinity War 1 etc...

I forgot about Avatar 2. I can see that, JW, IW, and Deadpool ahead of it; maybe not TS4 but it's possible.

[Kalo]

Early 2018 predictions:
 

Avatar 2 $520,000,000 (if it releases in 2018)

The Avengers: Infinity War Part 1 $500,000,000

Jurassic World 2 $420,000,000

Han Solo $380,000,000

Toy Story 4 $350,000,000

Deadpool 2 $330,000,000

Ready Player One $300,000,000

Black Panther $285,000,000

How the Grinch Stole Christmas $260,000,000

Gigantic $250,000,000

Mary Poppins Returns $250,000,000

Fantastic Beasts  2 $225,000,000

Ant-Man and the Wasp $200,000,000

Wreck-it Ralph 2 $190,000,000

Animated Spider-Man $180,000,000

Jungle Book: Origins $175,000,000

How to Train Your Dragon 3 $170,000,000

Tomb Raider $160,000,000

Peter Rabbit $150,000,000

Transformers 6 $145,000,000

 

 

There are some things up in the air about what DC films will release this year (2018), they had The Flash set at March 2018.  but that release date was removed from BOM. but is still shown as being released in march on IMDB. but BOM also added a release date for a film in October, which is the prime release for Ben Affleck films, I have a feeling Batman could be ready for release by then as well.

 

So I'll just predict all three of them, but I'm pretty sure at least one of them will be released in 2019.

The Batman $400,000,000

Aquaman $200,000,000

The Flash $200,000,000

 

There is also 3 untitled Disney Live action fairy tales set for release in 2018. I'm thinking they could be Maleficent 2, Dumbo, and possibly The Nutcracker, the Genie film is also possible though. or maybe A Wrinkle in Time. 

 

Dumbo $250,000,000

The Nutcracker $225,000,000

Maleficent 2 $190,000,000

Edited July 28, 2016 by Kalo