Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[JJ-8]

Interestingly the top 5 are now those who went for gold on SOTM 1 and won! 

 

and so much for me battling away in the top 20... one SOTM and goodbye to nearly last 

[chasmmi]

117k is clearly the place to be

[K1stpierre]

Updated Overall Game Scores

 

* now includes SOTM 1

 

 

 

Thanks for all the hard work.

Edited June 7, 2015 by baumer

[chasmmi]

So for fun let's have a look at the current states of open questions, starting with the SOTMs:

 

SOTM1 - has been scored above.

 

 

SOTM2 - Answering 1-3 is guaranteed points, answering 6 or 7 is points lost (I can't see AOU dragging its way up to 474M+, so it is going to come down to whether it can pass 441 and 448M respectively.

 

441 looks like a done deal, 448 I personally think is probable but there's a whole thread or fun happening in speakeasy right now over how likely reaching this mark is. We'll probably know within the next week or two if the TDKR people have hit the jackpot or are going to be losing some big points.

 

 

SOTM3- Obviously impossible to answer anything right now, but just to see how things currently stand (based on estimates for this weekend):

 

What will have the best OW (this will include any 5 day openings). - San Andreas 54M

What will have the best total?  San Andreas - 98m

What will have the best opening day?  San Andreas 18.1m

What will have the best midnight/early shows from the day before the official release?  Think this was also still San Andreas

What will have the best legs (multiplier...note, multiplier will count from a three day OW only)? San Andreas 1.8

What will have the smallest opening weekend? Aloha 9.6m

What will have the smallest opening day? Aloha 3.48m

Name at least two films that will make more than 150 mill (if you do not think there will be two, that can be your answer as well) None yet, San Andreas looking strong to do so, rest of current releases looking dead in the water.

 

So overall this question looks like it will come down to the following questions:

 

1. Can Dope open below Aloha.

2. Will MMXL, Terminator or Inside out beat San Andreas (and each other) opening day, midnights and OW.

3. How many of the above titles will join San Andreas in having a shot at 150M

4. What will all the legs be like?

 

 

SOTM4 - And finally how are the totals looking?

 

Tomorrowland:  110 mill  Current Estimate 77m off an 8.1m W/E and a 43%. Needs to make another 33m

 

Poltergeist:  57 mill   Current Estimate 44.3 off a 2.7M W/E and a 66% drop. Needs 12.7M more and that seems unlikely.

 

Pitch Perfect 2:  177 mill  Current Estimate 161.7 off a 8.4M W/E and a 43% drop. Needs 15.3M. That looks very doable

 

Mad Max Fury Road:  140 mill  Current Estimate 131.1 off a 8.3M W/E and a 41% drop. Needs 8.9M more. Pretty locked this one I'd say.

 

AOU:  1.425 billion WW Hardest one to track where it is really at. BOM has it's OS take at basically 900m as of 31/5. It's Dom is is projected to be about 439 after this weekend. That's a 'current' total of about 1.34B meaning it needs to make another 85M including whatever it made the past 7 days OS. Others will have a better idea of whether this will/can/may/won't happen.

[baumer]

I owe so much to jajang and chas.  You guys are awesome.  I really will be around more soon.  I'm trying lol.  But thank you so much for all the hard work.  

[K1stpierre]

So......I think overall I'm looking pretty good with my SOTM's.

Even this week (though cant answer all) despite the lower openings didn't hurt too too bad.

[chasmmi]

Lets have a sneak at some of the current standings for preseasons:

 

Question 1: Will more than 3 films gross at least 110 million dollars Opening weekend domestically (3 day weekends count only)
 

Currently no obviously, JW's release next weekend is of major importance for this question 
 

 

Question 2: Will more than two films gross at least 50 million dollars on opening day?
 

Currently no obviously, JW's release next weekend could make this answerable as a yes 

 

 

Question 3: Will any film this summer have a worldwide weekend of more than 280 million? (THIS WILL INCLUDE ANY 5 DAY WEEKENDS. WHATEVER IS REPORTED FOR THE ACTUALS ON MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE NUMBER WE GO BY). But the weekend has to fall within the summer game dates.
 

Avengers did this on its Domestic bow as BOM reports an OW of 187M and and OS take of 168M for that weekend making 355m if my maths is correct. So this can be scored now.
 

 

Question 4: Will any film make more than 51.5 million this summer in Australia?
 

No current release so far is going to make it. AOU is closest with 39M.
 

Question 5: Will at least two films make more than 55 million dollars this summer in the UK box office?
 

Can be answered as a Yes. AOU has made 71m and counting so far.

 

Question 6: Will any film besides Avengers make more than 150 million in CHINA this summer?

 

Not yet, but nothing apart from AOU was going to be capable of this so far. JW's release will be a big factor for this question

 

Question 7: Will at least 2 films make at least a billion mill WW this summer?

 

Obviously AOU has done this already. The next contender is JW, but if that falls short, there are still a few others that are capable. However a huge WW opening next weekend could push this into yes territory quite quickly.
 

 

Question 8: Will at least 5 films, listed as a comedy (could be sci-fi comedy...horror comedy...must have comedy listed somewhere in the genre ) by Box Office Mojo, make more than 120 million dollars this summer?

 

The current top comedies and their grosses:

 

Pitch Perfect - 161 - done

Spy - 32m - gonna be hard

Entourage - 18.2 - not happening.

 

 

[chasmmi]

Question 9: Will at least 3 action films released after May, have a WW gross of more than 500 million?
 

Obviously not really possible to say anything about this yet. Was Spy classed as an action film, nt that it is likely to matter?

Question 10: Which combination of films will make more money domestically? Current totals
1) Terminator, Spy, Jurassic World 32M
2) Entourage, Spy, Hot Pursuit, Poltergeist  127.9M
3) Minions, Insidious 3, Self/Less, Straight Oughtta Compton  23.9m

4) Avengers first ten days, Magic Mike XXL  313.4m

 

Question 11: Will any two films make more than 40 million in Russia this summer?

 

Nothing so far. AOU is closest with 33M ish I think. looking like a no it seems, but I am not an expert on Russian Box office.
 

Question 12:
Will the top two films combined make more this summer than the next 5 films combined (domestic only)? So to avoid any confusion like we have last summer, the question reads like this.... top 2 spots add up to more than slots 3-7.
 

current standings:

 

1-2 = 589M (AOU + PP2)

3-7 = 384M (MMFR + Tomorrow + San Andreas + Poltergeist + Hot Pursuit

 

Again, it's expected that PP2 will drop into the 3-7 spots (or perhaps lower), and only AOU, PP2 and MMFR are close to their final totals at this point of films that could matter.

 

Question 13:
Will any of the top 7 grossing sequels domestically this summer have a second weekend drop of less than 47.5%?
 

Current 2nd W/E drops of sequels: AOU - 59.4%,    PP2 - 55.5%,    MMFR - 45.8%,

 

So this question is a yes, so long as no more than 5 more sequels outgross MMFR and none drop less than 47.5. JW, Minions, MI:RN will all likely pass it, so the big factors will be the grosses of Terminator, Ted 2, Magic Mike I believe. If they all beat 140 ish million Mad Max won't qualify.

 

I also am not sure whether F4 is eligible in this question.

 

Question 14:
Will Avengers, Minions or Jurassic World have a Saturday increase minus the preview number?  So take out the Thursday number and you get the true Friday number.  You guys know the drill.

 

I don't believe AOU did 28M in previews so the next stop on this question will be JW.

 

Question 15:
Will Minions outgross Avengers in at least two of these regions this summer? Current AOU grosses in each region: (annoyingly as of May 10th as BOM is stupid)
France  - 28.9M
Netherlands - 4.42m

Venezuela - This total is up to date from the Venezuela thread at 1.1M admissions. Apparently tickets cost $27 each so that is about $29-30M so far

Hungary - 852k

[chasmmi]

Now onto the big 4 part questions:

 

The Ron Jeremy of all bonus questions

This is a four parter:

1) Will Avengers make at least 600 million domestically? NO its not quite going to get there
2) Will Avengers make more than a billion internationally? Currently at 900m, so unless Japan can make about 75M (the first made 45M), it's going to fall short

3) Will Avengers do at least 25 million for previews YES - by the skin of its teeth I believe
4)) Will Avengers make at least 1.8 billion WW? Not in a zillion years


NEW QUESTION:

17)  Note*** Jurassic World does not qualify for this question

A) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com gross more than 100 million dollars this summer? Not yet, Insidious needs a x4 multi, Poltergeist is dead. I think only Sinister 2 is left.
Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com open to more than 35 mill? Again not yet, Poltergeist's 26 is the current highest

C) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have a second weekend drop of less than 47%? Poltergeist dropped 64%, indsidious is next up to try.
D) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have an opening day of more than 13 mill? Not yet, Insidious is highest with 10.4M

 

I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets.

 

1) Russia:  42M - LESS

2) Germany:  31.5M I can only find that it has 2.3M admissions, I do not know how this works in dollars. I believe it to be about 18.5M Euros, that's apparently only about $20M so it looks like a clear LESS by these numbers.

3) Portugal:  3M Looks like less, BOM has its total as of May 10th at 1.2M with a 64% drop.

4) China:  200M MORE 230+ and counting.

 

 

The "Hey maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events but we just got our asses kicked pal" question of debauchery.

 

Will Jurassic World and F7 combine to make more than Avengers in these markets? let's look at the current FF7 vs AOU stats

 

1) Japan - NO  FF7 - 25M as of May 17th,  AOU - yet to open. So JW needs to come within about 25-30M of AOU

2) United Kingdom - FF7 - 60M+  AOU - 71M. so JW needs to make about $10M. that's looking like it may happen

3) Columbia - NO  FF7 - 16.4M   AOU - $9M  JW could almost get cancelled in Colombia and this will be a Yes

4) Mexico - YES   FF7 - 50.3m    AOU -  50.5m  I'd say JW has a shot at getting them over the line here too

 

Thanks to FF7, that question looks like a yes yes yes yes

[K1stpierre]

Chasmmi

[chasmmi]

And the final big 25 in 1 question:

 

1) How many films will gross at least 100 million dollars this summer? You have a cushion of 1 film.  So if you are off by 1, you still get full points. Currently 3, will be 4 on Monday

2) How many films will make a billion dollars this summer?  No cushion Currently 1

3) What will the domestic total gross be for the top 3 horror films of the summer.  II don't want to see anything but a number in your answer.  Do not list the films.  Cushion of 50 mill Poltergeist is at 44M, Insidious at 24m. So those 2 will end around 100-110M total for the 2, plus the gross of film number 3.

4) How  many films will gross at least 40 million opening day?  No cushion Answer = Currently 1

5) How many films will make at least 500 million internationally? cushion of 1. Answer = Currently 1

 

 

6) Will Terminator Genisys and Pitch Perfect 2 and Insidious 3 combine to gross more than F7 domestically? F7 - 350M, TGPP2I3 - 185M. Looks like Terminator will need to make about 125M for this to be yes.

7) Will Ted 2 make more than Ted? Impossible to say

8) Will Tele love Mad Max and will baumer love Jurassic World?  You must answer both.  This is an honour system question.  I will tell you right now that I think i will love Jurassic World. I believe Tele loved MMFR

9) Will any film released in August gross 100 mill before the end of the game? If I knew this I'd be a genius

10) Will Self/Less make more than 40 million? See Above

 

11) How many films will make at least 750 million WW?  1 cushion Currently 1

12) How many films will make at least 30 million OD?  1 cushion currently 1

13) Will Magic Mike XXL have a bigger opening day than Terminator genisys? It's a mystery

14) Will Pan be one of the top 7 grossing films of the summer domestically? Well obviously no, but could end up a void question

15) Will Ant Man gross at least 500 mill WW? To be confirmed...

 

16) Will any film gross 250 million in China? Was kinda banking on AOU, It's not looking good, so JW is next up to the plate

17) Will any film have  a WW weekend of more than 300 million (Avengers will only count from the time the game starts)YES AOU did 355M on DOM OW

18) Will Mission Impossible gross more than 200 million? Not sure yet

19) Will Vacation gross more than 70 million? I hope not, but not knowable

20) How many films will gross at least 305 million this summer?  currently at 1

 

21) Will Avengers gross more than the first one? Nope

22) Will any film besides Avengers make 25 million in Spain? Not yet

23) Will any film besides Avengers make 65 million in the UK? Not yet

24) Will Entourage make 100 mill or more? It's not looking likely, needs a 5+ multi

25) Will Avengers drop less than 55% second weekend? No 59.4%

[baumer]

Chas...who the fuck are you?  

[chasmmi]

So by my calculations, the following are all scorable now:

 

Preseason questions 3, 5, 18,

 

The following are probably scorable, but it would be best to wait and make sure.

 

Preseason Q 16 (Japan could drag AOU to 1B OS, but it won't.)

 

Preseason 17 - i think only Poltergeist and Insidious had a shot at making any of these answers yes, but you never know...

 

Preseason 19 - Looks like Yes yes yes yes, but it's technically possible for AOU to outgross JW by over 25M i guess.

 

 

I personally would not touch Q20 until all 25 questions can be answered.

[K1stpierre]

Chas...who the fuck are you?  

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r5kmCgVhADY

[chasmmi]

Chas...who the fuck are you?  

 

I am clearly a hero. Or a just had a lot of time on my hands and was curious how things were looking myself

 

I'm all done now though.

[narniadis]

Chas you are awesome.

[JJ-8]

hey chas, in regards to this question

 

I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets.

 

1) Russia:  42M - LESS

2) Germany:  31.5M I can only find that it has 2.3M admissions, I do not know how this works in dollars. I believe it to be about 18.5M Euros, that's apparently only about $20M so it looks like a clear LESS by these numbers.

3) Portugal:  3M Looks like less, BOM has its total as of May 10th at 1.2M with a 64% drop.

4) China:  200M MORE 230+ and counting.

 

1) def LESS (Russia is up to about 32m and running out of steam.)

2) Germany ~ i think less is the answer but it's up to 30.03m so far, so it's pretty close at this stage but i think it's run out of steam too

3) Portugal ~ 1.5m or something to that effect;... yeah it coming close to that figure

4) China has blown past 200m so is MORE like you said.

 

Germany is the only question but i think it is all but finished there..... 

 

PS (for I think we will need to use other sources for international numbers as BOM is no longer being updated at this point from what i can tell.

 

oh and chas you the man!

[JJ-8]

So for fun let's have a look at the current states of open questions, starting with the SOTMs:

 

SOTM1 - has been scored above.

 

 

SOTM2 - Answering 1-3 is guaranteed points, answering 6 or 7 is points lost (I can't see AOU dragging its way up to 474M+, so it is going to come down to whether it can pass 441 and 448M respectively.

 

441 looks like a done deal, 448 I personally think is probable but there's a whole thread or fun happening in speakeasy right now over how likely reaching this mark is. We'll probably know within the next week or two if the TDKR people have hit the jackpot or are going to be losing some big points.

 

 

SOTM3- Obviously impossible to answer anything right now, but just to see how things currently stand (based on estimates for this weekend):

 

What will have the best OW (this will include any 5 day openings). - San Andreas 54M

What will have the best total?  San Andreas - 98m

What will have the best opening day?  San Andreas 18.1m

What will have the best midnight/early shows from the day before the official release?  Think this was also still San Andreas

What will have the best legs (multiplier...note, multiplier will count from a three day OW only)? San Andreas 1.8

What will have the smallest opening weekend? Aloha 9.6m

What will have the smallest opening day? Aloha 3.48m

Name at least two films that will make more than 150 mill (if you do not think there will be two, that can be your answer as well) None yet, San Andreas looking strong to do so, rest of current releases looking dead in the water.

 

So overall this question looks like it will come down to the following questions:

 

1. Can Dope open below Aloha.

2. Will MMXL, Terminator or Inside out beat San Andreas (and each other) opening day, midnights and OW.

3. How many of the above titles will join San Andreas in having a shot at 150M

4. What will all the legs be like?

 

 

SOTM4 - And finally how are the totals looking?

 

Tomorrowland:  110 mill  Current Estimate 77m off an 8.1m W/E and a 43%. Needs to make another 33m

 

Poltergeist:  57 mill   Current Estimate 44.3 off a 2.7M W/E and a 66% drop. Needs 12.7M more and that seems unlikely.

 

Pitch Perfect 2:  177 mill  Current Estimate 161.7 off a 8.4M W/E and a 43% drop. Needs 15.3M. That looks very doable

 

Mad Max Fury Road:  140 mill  Current Estimate 131.1 off a 8.3M W/E and a 41% drop. Needs 8.9M more. Pretty locked this one I'd say.

 

AOU:  1.425 billion WW Hardest one to track where it is really at. BOM has it's OS take at basically 900m as of 31/5. It's Dom is is projected to be about 439 after this weekend. That's a 'current' total of about 1.34B meaning it needs to make another 85M including whatever it made the past 7 days OS. Others will have a better idea of whether this will/can/may/won't happen.

 

 

There is also a Pre Pre (Part question i'm treating as part of the SOTM questions.....

 

Part B]

 

If you agree to go for this question, you must answer three of these right, and question five is mandatory.  So you have to answer two other questions.  If you decide to go for this and you answer it correctly, you get 15,000 points.  If you get even one wrong, you lose 25,000 points.  No exceptions.  No points for abstaining.  So just to make it clear, you have to choose two other questions to answer plus number 5.

 

Here we go:

 

1) Will FF7 make more than 260 million? YES

2) Will FF7 gross more than 850 mill WW? YES

3) Will FF7 gross more than 120 mill combined in Russia and China? ER CHINA DID THIS ONE ON IT'S OWN SO YES

4) Will FF7 gross more than 7 million in midnights/early shows? YES

5) Will FF7 gross come within 40 million of Jurassic World (it can be higher or lower than JW but it has to be within 40 mill)? If you have a time machine can you tell me the answer... 

 

Seriously though this means JW needs to make between 309.6m and 389.6m and those numbers are rising on a weekly basis.  Realistically, i'd say we are targeting the low end of this area meaning the chances are going to be slim.  We shall get a clue after the coming weekend....

 

Good luck!!

[chasmmi]

hey chas, in regards to this question

 

 

PS (for I think we will need to use other sources for international numbers as BOM is no longer being updated at this point from what i can tell.

 

 

Yeah I was mostly using the International forums here for international numbers. BOM does update, but they seem to do it about once every 3 or 4 months so it is really quite stupid at this point.

 

So it looks like Germany will drag that question on a little longer then.

[chasmmi]

And I can see JW ending anywhere from 240M to 350+. As you say, we'll know a lot more this weekend. If OW is less than say 75M it probably ain't reaching 310M.