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Ionut Alexandru Tita

Romania Box Office

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James, are their any numbers jet?

Did they do an estimation for the weekend jet?

No they never do. Monday afternoon we get the actuals and that's it. It's annoying since I'd really like to know the separate numbers for Fr/Sat/Sun. Anyway, looking at the shows left for today (the last one beginning close to midnight), there are vey few locations all across the country that aren't sold out or at least 80-90% full. 

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No they never do. Monday afternoon we get the actuals and that's it. It's annoying since I'd really like to know the separate numbers for Fr/Sat/Sun. Anyway, looking at the shows left for today (the last one beginning close to midnight), there are vey few locations all across the country that aren't sold out or at least 80-90% full. 

 

What do you thinkg, 160K admission?

Edited by pepsa
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What do you thinkg, 160K admission?

I really don't wanna push it. 150K would be huge - a 50% increase over DOS that is already one of the biggest openers ever (in fact, there are only 3 movies that ever opened above 100K). But... yeah, I think it has a shot at 150K. I hope I don't get my hopes up for nothing though. :lol:

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I really don't wanna push it. 150K would be huge - a 50% increase over DOS that is already one of the biggest openers ever (in fact, there are only 3 movies that ever opened above 100K). But... yeah, I think it has a shot at 150K. I hope I don't get my hopes up for nothing though. :lol:

 

but if it doubles screening and is sold out for 80% than it should be possible?

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but if it doubles screening and is sold out for 80% than it should be possible?

If it sold out 80% of the seats this weekend it would do way over 150.000. 200.000 would be possible. The thing is it does awesome in the evenings, but the morning shows are about 40-50% full. Granted, that's only from presales, so with walk-ins they should hit around 70% capacity. I mainly follow the biggest theatre chain and that sells very very good, but that is also because it promotes it's movies a lot. That owns about 60% of the showtimes. But then there are the rest of 40%. Some chains do very good, to the point of selling out their shows 4-5 days in advance, others not so much. There are just so many shows given to TH. Every theatre wants to make money on it, but the audience is still limited compared to other markets. For Bucharest alone I think we have about 150 ahows. That's about as much as an US big city like LA gets.

That being said, I think there'sa 60% chance we have an opening in the 150K area.  :)

Edited by James
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If it sold out 80% of the seats this weekend it would do way over 150.000. 200.000 would be possible. The thing is it does awesome in the evenings, but the morning shows are about 40-50% full. Granted, that's only from presales, so with walk-ins they should hit around 70% capacity. I mainly follow the biggest theatre chain and that sells very very good, but that is also because it promotes it's movies a lot. That owns about 60% of the showtimes. But then there are the rest of 40%. Some chains do very good, to the point of selling out their shows 4-5 days in advance, others not so much. There are just so many shows given to TH. Every theatre wants to make money on it, but the audience is still limited compared to other markets. For Bucharest alone I think we have about 150 ahows. That's about as much as an US big city like LA gets.

That being said, I think there'sa 60% chance we have an opening in the 150K area.  :)

 

So what your are trying to say is, 200K is possible :D

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Thanks to the final movie in 'The Hobbit' trilogy, we just had the 2nd best overall weekend of the year (the best one is the first one of 2014) and the third best overall weekend ever!

 

- The last Middle-Earth film was hugely anticipated here and the people advertising it made sure everybody knows it's coming. The only movie that had a silmilar marketing push was 'Mockingjay', but that clearly lacked the appeal The Battle of the Five Armies had.

 

The result: 'The Hobbit' easily set a new opening weekend record, both in admissions and USD. It sold an incredible 148.191 tickets, beating the previous record holder ('The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2' - 123.163 adm) by 17%. It also beat '300: Rise of an Empire', the record holder in USD till now, by 20% ($860K vs. $691K). Comparing BotFA with the previous two 'Hobbit' films, it opened 40% higher than AUJ in admissions and 26% higher in USD; against DOS, it debuted 33% stronger in adm and 24% stronger in USD and that is with a worse exchange rate.

 

That may not seem like much compared to the openings in the major markets, but the opening was actualy not that far from Japan's 195.000 adm, and Romania's market size is 1/20 of Japan's, while it's population is 1/7. Coming close to that, even with the fall in popularity of the Middle-Earth movies there, is remarkable.

 

Despite the fact that it set a record as the widest release when it comes to showtimes (over 1000), 'The Battle of the Five Armies' opened on the same number of screens as 'Desolation of Smaug', tying DOS for the widest release ever. That only shows the limitations of the market.

 

As for the predicted total, I have no clue. AUJ had a 4.6x multiplier, while DOS had a 3.9x one (although with much more competition). TBotFA will probably be more frontloaded, given it's massive debut. On the other hand, after the main theatre chain decided to pull 'Exodus' out of the theatres to make room for 'The Hobbit', they seem to do the same thing with 'Night at the Museum 3', that should open this Friday. So TBotFA will have what usually is the biggest weekend of the year pretty much to itself. Of course, the comparison is not exactly apples to apples, considering the two previous movies opened a week earlier, so it remains to be seen how much the drop will be softened by the Christmas holiday. We might actually have another weekend above 100.000 admissions, which would be fantastic. Either way, giving it DOS' multiplier, we get around 575.000 adm. That might be a bit much, but around 500.000 should be possible.

 

Here is a Top of the biggest OW in admissions:

 

aoBfal4.jpg

 

- In second, Dumb and Dumber To fell 54%. That's a similar drop to 'Horrible Bosses 2', two weekes ago, which is good, considering the bad grade it had on Cinemagia. Total stands at $343K.

 

- Surprisingly, The Penguins of Madagascar had a nice hold in face of 'The Hobbit', sliding only 35%. That is a much better drop than 'Puss in Boots' (-70%), and the admissions are pretty much at the same level. Still, the exchange rate makes the gross vastly different (900K for 'Puss' vs. 765K for 'Penguins'). $1M is still a lock.

 

- Against the juggernaut 'The Hobbit' was, Exodus collapsed (-75%!!). Total stands at a weak $311K.

 

- Paddington had another beautiful drop (-31%). Cume is $234K.

 

- Horrible Bosses 2 was down 46% and made an excellent $474K so far.

 

- Interstellar suffered greatly from the loss of it's IMAX shows, tumbling 54%, it's worst drop yet. Still, admissions stand at a mighty 291.185 (300.000+ is a lock) and cume at $1.52M (finishing 3rd for the year, ahead of 'The Wolf of Wall Street's $1.6M seems like a sure thing now).  

 

- The Judge was down 54%.

 

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 dropped the same as 'Catching Fire' against 'The Hobbit' (54%). It now passed CF in admissions and it is still slightly ahead in gross so it will come close to matching that movie's $855K total.

 

- Nightcrawler closes the top (-55%).

 

Top 10:

 

xAn4VUP.jpg

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Night at the Museum: The Secret of the Tomb

- Annie

- Son of a Gun

- Toonpur Ka Superrhero

- Alt Love Building (local movie)

 

'Night at the Museum 3' will not open through the main theatre chain, which will pretty much destroy it. The previous 2 movies flopped (though the market wasn't as big as today either). Still, it will be hard for it to open to more than 15.000 adm.

 

I don't see any of the other releases touching 10.000 adm.

 

'The Hobbit' will rule and it might top 100.000 tickets again. It had a lot of sellouts today (Monday). Same for tomorrow. I'll do some updates throughout the week.

 

Top 20 for 2014:

 

LoxTTCz.jpg

Edited by James
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Amazing OW. It's pretty much locked to become the second most attended film after Avatar. Hoping for at least 600K admissions total. 

It all depends on how much the Into the Woods/Seventh Son will hurt it in the third weekend. They are both fantasy and both 3D I think so The Hobbit will lose some screens. If it manages to get past that weekend it will be alright up until Jupiter Ascending comes and takes away it's screens. Till then, it also has Taken 3 (that will be very big, but they do not share exactly the same audience) and Big Hero 6 (that, considering Disney/Pixar past, it will either do decent or completely bomb - the only success stories in recent memory are Brave, Frozen and Tangled I think, all princess movies).

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Damn, look at that multiplier for IS. Nice run it's had. Quite impressed. As for this weekend for TH3, expected, given the hype. Now for the legs...hopefully they' re not short and hairy.

 

It's only 50% over DoS, so it's just crazy, wonderfull, awesome. 

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Weekly Update: It's Christmas eve and most theatres had few shows today. Also (and I can't get this), Bucharest aside, the main theatre chain has no shows tomorrow for anything, which is plain weird.

'The Hobbit' continues to do good business. It had quite a few sellouts these past few days and it also looks busy for the weekend ahead, with a lot of shows close to selling out.

The main theatre chain abandoned 'Night at the Museum 3' and it sems they made the right choice. The film looks dead on arrival at the other theatres. It's a family movie and it could have strong walk-ins, although with TH still selling like crazy, I see it difficult for someone to choose this.

The tickets for 'Seventh Son' (opening Jan 2) went on sale and it sold quite a few seats. The books are very popular here, so having some presales is pretty normal. Still, good for it.

The tickets for 'Into the Woods' (opening Jan 2) also went on sale, but it is a dead zone. The musical hasn't even sold 1 ticket. 'Les Miserables' bombed here last year. 'Woods' has more appeal, being a fantasy and, most of all, it has Johnny Depp, who is one of the most recognizable starts around, but the marketing was a disaster.

The last movie for which tickets went on sale in advance is 'Taken 3' (opening Jan 9) and wooohooo. Although it hasn't yet sold out a show, there is clear demand for this movie. I expect a very good OW. 

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Weekend update: Big, big weekend up ahead for 'The Hobbit'. It had a hell lot of sellouts today and tomorrow looks even crazier (Iasi and Timisoara have all the shows already sold out). The sales were also helped by the premiere of 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' last night on TV. The movie was watched by about 2.5M roumanians (or more than 1/8 of the country's entire population). Also, the movie accounted for 31% of the TV viewers last night.

'Night at the Museum 3' looks weak, just as before.

'Annie's the same.

'Into the Woods' presales are still dead.

'The Seventh Son' and 'Taken 3' are looking stronger by the day. 

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Weekend update: Big, big weekend up ahead for 'The Hobbit'. It had a hell lot of sellouts today and tomorrow looks even crazier (Iasi and Timisoara have all the shows already sold out). The sales were also helped by the premiere of 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' last night on TV. The movie was watched by about 2.5M roumanians (or more than 1/8 of the country's entire population). Also, the movie accounted for 31% of the TV viewers last night.

'Night at the Museum 3' looks weak, just as before.

'Annie's the same.

'Into the Woods' presales are still dead.

'The Seventh Son' and 'Taken 3' are looking stronger by the day. 

 

 

Sounds great for Five Armies. What kind of potential drop are we talking about this week?

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