BOT User Tracking 11/27-29 *3-day* Creed, The Good Dinsaur, Victor Frankenstein

[Wrath]

Should be a fun weekend, but I'm pressed for time so no attempts at witty banter.

 

Please provide your *3-day* 11/27 - 29 Opening Weekend predicts for:

Creed

Good Dinosaur

Victor Frankenstein

 

These are all Wednesday openers, so deadline will be 5 pm EST Wednesday, and predicts should be 3-day FSS (friday/saturday/sunday). Thanks! Sorry for tight timeframe.

[WrathOfHan]

The Good Dinosaur: 70M

Creed: 35M

Victor Frankenstein: 5M

[babz06]

The Good Dinosaur-60m

Creed-30m

Victor Frankenstein-5m

[Ethan Hunt]

The Good Dinosaur: 58M

Creed: 29M

Frankenstein: 2M

Edited November 24, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[DAJK]

Good Dinosaur - $57.3M ($79.3M 5-day)

 

Creed - $25.16M (39.03M 5-day)

 

Vixtor Frankenstein- $6.78M ($11.42M 5-day)

[BourneFan #1]

The Good Dinosaur: $72.7m

Creed: $36.2m

Victor Frankenstein: $6.3m

[PanaMovie]

3-DAY:

 

Creed - 25.4M

The Good Dinosaur - 52.9M

Victor Frankenstein - 6.8M

[Wrath]

3-day

 

Creed 22.9M

Good Dinosaur 51M

Victor 9.5M

Edited November 25, 2015 by Wrath

[Bastien]

The Good Dinosaur : $49.5M (5 Days : $67M)

Creed : $37M (5 Days : $55M)

Victor : $5.5M (5 Days : $8.8M)

[Blankments]

The Good Dinosaur - 68.431M

Creed - 34.867M

Victor Frankenstein - 4.675M

[mahnamahna]

The Good Dinosaur: $60 million ($87 million)

Creed: $41 million ($59 million) - very conservative predict, since it could do huge business today 

Victor Frankenstein: $6 million ($10 million)

 

[BadAtGender]

The Good Dinosaur: 54m

Creed: 32m

Victor Frankenstein: 7m

[Wrath]

A little frustrating as Deadline and Variety mostly decided to only do 5-day predicts this time, and Comingsoon only did a 3-day for Frankenstein, oddly enough. Oh well, at least there was *some* data to compare against.

 

Anyway, we were optimistic on Creed, in the middle on Good Dinosaur, and pessimistic on Frankenstein, all of which should end up serving us pretty well.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (14 for Creed and Good Dinosaur, 13 for Frankenstein for everything) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Creed

Mean: 31.7M

Median: 31M

StnDev: 10.5M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 33.14%

High:  57.3M

Low: 11M

 

BO.com 26M

ComingSoon.com 

Deadline 

ScreenRant.com 24M 

Variety

 

 

Good Dinosaur

Mean: 58.1M

Median: 59.5M

StnDev: 12.02M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.7%

High: 72.7M

Low 25.2M

 

BO.com 54M

ComingSoon.com 

Deadline 

ScreenRant.com 60M 

Variety 

 

Victor Frankenstein

Mean: 5.7M

Median: 5.5M

StnDev: 1.78M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 31.46%

High: 9.5M

Low 2M

 

BO.com 9.2M

ComingSoon.com 9.9M

Deadline

ScreenRant.com 13M  

Variety

 

[WrathOfHan]

Man, we did great on Creed.

[BourneFan #1]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Man, we did great on Creed.

Not The Good Dinosaur though.

[Wrath]

Creed

Prediction: 31.7M +/- 10.5M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 29.6M (off by 2.1M, so 0.2 stndev)

That's a really good predict, which is nice, because its all downhill from here though the weekend didn't turn out quite as terribly as one might have expected. We were the closest of the predicts by a good margin, too. Its a fun one to look at the numbers, because our predicts were seriously all over the place, semi-evenly distributed from $11M all the way up to $57M, yet our average came in just one ring out from a bullseye. Best predict was babz06 at $30M.

 

Good Dinosaur

Prediction: 58.1M +/- 12.02M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 39.2M (off by 18.9M, so 1.57 stndev)

Bad but not completely awful, and while BO.com was the closest, they predicted $54M. Sometimes, everyone just whiffs. Both Wrathettes saw the trailer multiple times, and neither was ever excited by it in the least so maybe I should expected this. On the other hand, they were raging with excitement over Penguins of Madagascar, and we all know how that turned out. On the bright side, this wasn't one of those movies where the actual ends up lower than even our lowest guess, but its not like we were especially close. The best predict was by BastienGiot at 49.5M in their first week of guesses, so congratulations on avoiding our apparent group-think in your predicting.

 

Victor Frankenstein

Prediction: 5.7M +/- 1.78M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 2.5M (off by 3.2M, so 1.77 stndev)

A big stndev just barely saved this predict from being absolutely terrible but as a bonus, we were *by far* the best predict as everyone else was over $9M. Ethan Hunt's prediction of near complete collapse at 2M ended up the most accurate. Poor Daniel Radcliff. Horns proved that the issue wasn't a lack of movies in which he had something distinctive on his forehead. I'm sure he'll figure things out eventually.

Edited December 1, 2015 by Wrath