Ezen Baklattan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If SOC gets in here, I'd say it's getting a lot more. Give it a few sound nods, maybe editing, and original screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Some takeaways: The Top 5 for BP is The Big Short, Spotlight, The Martian, Mad Max, and The Revenant. That's not up for debate anymore. Carol is in trouble. It missed the editors and art directors guilds and Director is a longshot now. It shouldn't miss the Writers Guild with Room and Brooklyn ineligible, but if it misses it's a sign that it'll have a weak showing at the Oscars. I really don't know what to think about Room and Star Wars. Room is done at the guilds because of it's WGA ineligibility and the fact that it isn't a technical movie, yet it had a strong showing at SAG. Star Wars still has a bunch of guilds left. I'm curious if Dennis Villeneuve could be in DGA instead of JJ Abrams providing ACE goes 5/5 as usual. Inside Out is dead. I really don't get why it's underperforming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Spaghetti said: If SOC gets in here, I'd say it's getting a lot more. Give it a few sound nods, maybe editing, and original screenplay. I'd say Sicario and Ex Machina are more likely for Original Screenplay. Straight Outta Compton also missed the Eddie nom. It might be able to pull Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, but I am not sure what other nomination it has enough momentum to take in order to secure a BP nod. Then again, Selma did it last year with just an Original Song nod (but it was a completely different scenario). I think if anything, this is putting Sicario in place for a BP nod, and possibly pushing Carol and Room out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well, this is a bit stunning. Looks like Carol is done now in the Best Picture race. Room is also on shaky ground too. Straight Outta Compton has been a surprise this season, could it sneak in? Same with Sicario and Ex Machina (I wonder if Vikander could get nominated for that and not The Danish Girl now). I'm inclined to think Star Wars is definitely not happening for a nomination now when they nominated Star Trek back in 2009, among other things. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) Sicario has shown up everywhere except Globes and SAG, which granted aren't exactly small fries, but still. BFCA, NYBR, ACE, and now PGA, among a bunch of critical groups. It's the kind of film I can see getting the kind of passionate, #1 type support to pull in a nom. I'm still not ready to put it in, but yea. It's very viable. SOC I've been predicting for a month and it's starting to look very, very likely- Universal is campaigning it heavy. Brooklyn's campaign is saved. IO looks dead. Also, doubt Ex Machina gets any top line noms, but I'll echo Coolio and say please dear lord let them nominate Vikander for that instead of Danish Hurl. And bring in Isaac while you're at it. EDIT: Didn't realize that PGA had a whole separate thing for animated movies. IO ain't dead yet. Edited January 5, 2016 by Cmasterclay 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Looking at this list, it looks like Big Short, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant and Spotlight are safe for BP now. I wouldn't kick Carol out of your BP predicts yet, it's still Weinstein's biggest push. However, it needs to make the WGAs considering several big contenders there like Room and Brooklyn aren't eligible there, otherwise it's done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lol, remember when 2015 was supposed to be the "year of the women." Now, it's possible the only BP nominee with a female lead role will be Sicario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sicario will be the surprise hit of the season. Original Screenplay and Cinematography nominations look very likely now. Editing has a good chance. The fifth spot in Actress is still a wildcard, why not Emily Blunt? 1 minute ago, Alpha said: Lol, remember when 2015 was supposed to be the "year of the women." Now, it's possible the only BP nominee with a female lead role will be Sicario. Mad Max has a female lead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sad as it is to say, it's possible that the three small female indie dramas are all hurting each other a little bit, especially since Brooklyn and Carol are period pieces with early year debuts. It's pretty shitty to see, and even more shitty how not surprised I am that these movies are struggling to co-exist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I still think Brooklyn is safe, FYI. It's Carol (missing all of these precursors is NOT good news) and Room that are in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Alpha said: Lol, remember when 2015 was supposed to be the "year of the women." Now, it's possible the only BP nominee with a female lead role will be Sicario. Star Wars also has a female lead, if it gets in, too. Edited January 5, 2016 by The Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) Pros and Cons of the non-Top 5 BP contenders: Bridge of Spies: Pros: Mark Rylance is locked for a Supporting Actor nomination, Original Screenplay and Score are likely nominations, PGA, and Spielberg. Brooklyn: Pro: PGA Cons: The movie was losing steam until today and might not get a single nomination outside of Actress and Adapted Screenplay (the latter is still a question mark). Carol: Pro: Harvey Weinstein. Cons: It's been missing a bunch of guilds and there was no Screenplay nomination at the Globes. Ex Machina: Pros: Surprise PGA nomination, Alicia Vikander has gotten nominations at several precursors including the Globes, and an Original Screenplay nomination could happen. Cons: It's sci-fi and might not be big enough. Room: Pros: Brie Larson is the probable Actress winner, strong precursor showings, and an Adapted Screenplay nomination is likely. Cons: No PGA, might not be big enough, and won't get any below the line nominations. Sicario: Pros: Has been a guild underdog including PGA, Villeneuve could get a DGA nomination, Original Screenplay and Cinematography nominations are likely, and Editing, Actress, and Supporting Actor could happen. Con: Nightcrawler was a guild underdog and look how that turned out. Star Wars: Pros: It's Star Wars and will get a lot of below the line nominations. Cons: No PGA and it's sci-fi. Straight Outta Compton: Pros: PGA and SAG and was a box office hit. Cons: It's hard to imagine more than 4 nominations are possible. Original Screenplay and the Sound categories are too crowded Edited January 5, 2016 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm trying to put this in an uncrude way, but the whole huge #oscarssowhite controversy last year won't hurt straight outta compton. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Panda said: Ø The Big Short Producers: Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner Ø Bridge of Spies Producers: Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger Ø Brooklyn Producers: Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey Ø Ex Machina This film is in the process of being vetted for producer eligibility Ø Mad Max: Fury Road Producers: Doug Mitchell & George Miller Ø The Martian Producers: Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam Ø The Revenant Producers: Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon Ø Sicario Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Edward L. McDonnell, Molly Smith Ø Spotlight Producers: Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust Ø Straight Outta Compton Producers: Ice Cube & Matt Alvarez, F. Gary Gray, Dr. Dre, Scott Bernstein No Star Wars, Carol, Room, or Trumbo. This is a big blow to Carol, Room, and decent one to Star Wars (which at least got the Eddie) So far Carol has missed a SAG nomination, a PGA nomination, an ACE nomination, and Production Design nomination. It's a lot weaker than people thought. BP Nominees looking like 1.The Big Short 2.Spotlight 3.Mad Max: Fury Road 4.The Revenant 5.The Martian 6.Bridge of Spies 7.Sicario Possible spoilers for 8-10 spots: Star Wars, Carol, Room, Straight Outta Compton, Brooklyn, Ex Machina Straight Outta Compton is surely in before Sicario. It got an ensemble nomination at SAG and will probably get a WGA nomination for original screenplay. Room is also a sure thing as well. Edited January 5, 2016 by PenguinHyphy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Considering the shaky ground Carol is on and all of the hullabaloo over her category placement, I wonder if there's a good chance Mara will just miss completely. Reminds me of Scarlett Johansson back in 2003 (although she had two performances in the running that likely cancelled out her votes more than her category placement for one of them). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm kinda disappointed Carol might strike out this year. The trailer alone made it look like the best period drama this season. I'm just glad the Trumbo surge isn't actually a thing. At one point I was afraid that Jay Roach may have gotten a DGA nom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 they're set in the same time/place so I feel comfortable comparing the two, which I saw on the same weekend, but I don't know what to say to anyone who watches Brooklyn and Carol and decides the former was better. I mean I liked Brooklyn but it's essentially a nice sunday night BBC drama at best. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: they're set in the same time/place so I feel comfortable comparing the two, which I saw on the same weekend, but I don't know what to say to anyone who watches Brooklyn and Carol and decides the former was better. I mean I liked Brooklyn but it's essentially a nice sunday night BBC drama at best. Too lesbian for them? Lol yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Browsing through AW forums, I'm seeing meltdown after meltdown about Carol's snub. Some are even accusing the Producers Guild of homophobia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Alpha said: Browsing through AW forums, I'm seeing meltdown after meltdown about Carol's snub. Some are even accusing the Producers Guild of homophobia. A sign how far we've come from the backlash over Crash winning Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain, I guess. Shrug. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
