Impact Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Globe wins don't affect Oscar nominations because the deadline for nomination submissions has always been before the Globes aired.Yes I know-but I'm just saying it is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Coming into October we can break down the "seen" BP contenders into categories/tiers of likelihood. Then there's also the unseen films. Films That Have Been Screened or Released: Tier 1 (The Locks) Argo- Populist Crowd-Pleaser #1 The Master- The Cold Intellectual High-Brow Entree The Silver Linings Playbook- Populist Crowd-Pleaser #2 Tier 2 (The Hopefuls) Amour- The Foreign Prestige Director Outing Beasts of the Southern Wild- Indie Darling #1 The Dark Knight Rises- Third Time's the Charm? The Impossible- Uplifting Disaster Saga Moonrise Kingdom- Indie Darling #2 Tier 3 (The Unlikely Ones) Anna Karenina- Famous Literature Period Piece with a Twist The Avengers- Can You Really Ignore Over $600 Million Domestic? Cloud Atlas- Wachowski Sprawling Visual Experience Killing Them Softly- The Nihilistic Crime Thriller The Sessions- Indie Darling #3 Films That Remain Unseen: Django Unchained- The QT Niche Revenge Outing #285378 Flight- The Denzel Star Vehicle The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey- The Return to Middle Earth Les Miserables- The Epic Sweeping Musical Contender Life of Pi- The Visual Feast Lincoln- The Spielberg Promised Land- The Film No One Knows Much About at All Yet Have Made it A Speculated Contender Because it's Van Sant and Damon Together Again Zero Dark Thirty- The America F*** Yeah! Contender 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 No clue where my last post for my predicts are...so here as fo today:The Hobbit Part 1Flight (Just a hunch here)Les MiserbelesLife of PiLincolnThe MasterMoonrise Kingdom (at least one pre Fall release, picking this film for now)Trouble with the CurveThat is 8...possibly Django. No TDKR and Avengers wont make it. (Wish they could, but whatever) Update:ArgoThe HobbitLes MiserbelesLife of PiLincolnThe MasterMoonrise KingdomSilver Linings Playbook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 ArgoBeasts of the Southern WildFlightLes MiserablesLincolnThe MasterThe SessionsSilver Linings Playbook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Lincoln`s going to be a dud. I`m swapping Lincoln for TH though I don`t see PJ in director. Too strong competition. But Lincoln`s a toast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Lincoln`s going to be a dud. I`m swapping Lincoln for TH though I don`t see PJ in director. Too strong competition. But Lincoln`s a toast. Its so sad, when I first heard about 'Berg doing a Lincoln-movie, I was so excited! But the movie does looks very unimpressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 This is les Miz`s to lose. Nothing out there looks as good as this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 It doesn't matter whether Lincoln is good or bad, it's getting nominated. Far too bait to be ignored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 With Hitchcock moviing to this year-think it has a chance here?(Wish it had more of his life-but oh well) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 With Hitchcock moviing to this year-think it has a chance here?(Wish it had more of his life-but oh well)No way in hell, unless it gets raves and raves and raves. The field's way to crowded this year. And I'm now almost certain that Les Mis has got this in the bag as I have been predicting since last tear's Oscars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 You never know-what else could it be nominated for other then actor anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 You never know-what else could it be nominated for other then actor anyway?Actress, Mirren I suppose could take the Veteran Spot, but that category's already quite full of Veterans, with Smith, and Streep, and possibly Dench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Revised Nominees Prediction (Ranked in Order of the Win):1. Les Miserables (Predicted Winner)2. Argo (But it's not winning Nor any of the others not named Les Mis)3. The Master 4. Lincoln5. Amour 6. Life of Pi (Just a Hunch but I think it could factor in big with the Race, but it could flop too, that trailer, just ugh...)7. Silver Linings Playbook (It's gonna get nominated no problem, but it's not winning)8. Zero Dark Thirty (Bigelow Just won for a film exactly like this one, and it isn't academy friendly material to start with, unlike Les Mis)9. Beasts of the Southern Wild10. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) It doesn't matter whether Lincoln is good or bad, it's getting nominated. Far too bait to be ignored.The only noms that matter are BP noms in package with the director. That`s 5. PTA, Affleck, Hooper. If Lincoln is a dud like War Horse, BP no director. I agree they won`t ignore such a bait unless it`s as bad as J Edgar. It certianly looks worse. Edited September 21, 2012 by fishnets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 I wonder what Argo will win? I think that will get screenplay and possibly editing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Now for Les Miserbeles if it wins BP it will need at least one other major award. No musical ever wins screenplay...I'm guessing supporting actress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Of course I wont do the thread for a while-but what do you think will have the most nods?I am thinking ones of these:LincolnLes M.Hobbit Oh and Life of Pi wouldn't surprise me either having the most.Took me a while to find this but here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) Les Mis is sweeping the biggies. BP, BD, Supporting Actress, maybe Actor, Adapted Script is also likely. It`s based on the play that`s based on the classic novel. Can`t miss. Edited September 21, 2012 by fishnets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Director is iffy as he just won. (Random fact-only John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz have won 2 years in a row, I know that wont happen this year but just saying) While only John Ford, William Wyler and Frank Carpa have won 3 or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz are the only directors to win BD two years in a row, and that was in 1940-1941 and 1949-1950 respectively. Then you've got 3 years between Oliver Stone's wins and 5 years between David Lean's. I highly doubt Hooper's joining that company.And while Les Mis seems like a hot contender at the moment, I'm not gonna say it's "sweeping everything" until at least mid-January. So many movies yet to be released, so many things to possibly happen, and we can't be 100% sure of Les Mis' quality yet either. What if the voters fall head over heels for Argo or Silver Linings? What if Life of Pi is a masterpiece? The Master, despite clearly not being friendly to the Academy, is not totally out of the question either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
