Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)

[Moviefanatic]

Under 40 million??  But this is supposed be over 40 million everyday until March!! 

 

[tokila]

anything better than a 50% drop weekend 2 we should be happy with. 40% would be epic. 

 

If today comes in at 39 million, i project a 38% drop which is 154mil.  Which would be the number 10 alltime weekend (knocking THG out). 

 

It would be a week 2 record that would last over a well decade. 

[Biggestgeekever]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Hello everyone! This is my first comment ever in the forum. I've always been interested in BO stuff but never signed up, just observed. Glad to be here. 

Ok I can do this....

I say a $200m plus second weekend is 100% impossible. One thing this film will run into quicker than most December releases is the law of large numbers. Due to this I don't think it will hold like most do. The number of eyes available who want to see it will be filled faster than say an Avatar or ROTK. That being said, I do think it's going to best Avatar's domestic total, I just don't think it's going to keep up these enormous holds much longer (I'm not a hater I promise! This is my 2nd favorite SW movie and #1 movie of the year!!). I'm pegging the 2nd weekend at $133 million  

Welcome to the forums!

 

And $200+M second w/e is indeed an absurd idea. It's almost like sabotage for something like ERC to even suggest the possibility.

[solaris]

Has anyone heard from Kal recently?

 

[spizzer]

1 minute ago, solaris said:

Has anyone heard from Kal recently?

 

 

He was in the Avatar thread last week.  Haven't seen him after TFA's release yet.

[Orestes]

1 minute ago, solaris said:

Has anyone heard from Kal recently?

 

 

Last I heard he collapsed into the fetal position, desperately clutching his James Cameron body pillow, humming the Avatar soundtrack.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Welcome to the forums!

 

And $200+M second w/e is indeed an absurd idea. It's almost like sabotage for something like ERC to even suggest the possibility.

Thank you!

I formulated a haphazard theory about TFA's final domestic total. I was looking back on various big openers and compared their 1st Mondays. If my theory holds water, the total for TFA should be about $889 million. It's size and month of release where tricky to extrapolate though since this movie is sort of an outlier lol

[maryksinger]

this can make a 90M in third week?

[Orestes]

Just now, maryksinger said:

this can make a 90M in third week?

 

100m isn't even out of the question.

[tokila]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Thank you!

I formulated a haphazard theory about TFA's final domestic total. I was looking back on various big openers and compared their 1st Mondays. If my theory holds water, the total for TFA should be about $889 million. It's size and month of release where tricky to extrapolate though since this movie is sort of an outlier lol

889 when? End of run?

 

If today comes in it 39million I have it at 898mil on 7 FEB. making 5.8 mil the weekend of 5-7 FEB, and beween 850k-950k on weekdays. I have not extended the model out past the 7th, but if it is doing that then I would assume another 30 million. So 930mil total. 

 

For me for this to make one billion domestic it needs to do over 165 mil this weekend, and then have 10% softer drops week over week than i currently project. 

[maryksinger]

2 minutes ago, Orestes said:

 

100m isn't even out of the question.

avatar is going down so hard(domestic)

[POTUS 2020]

19 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

Sarcasm bro.

The sarcasm will go over his head."
"Nothing goes over my head. My reflexes are too fast. I will catch it.

[FTF]

12 minutes ago, solaris said:

Has anyone heard from Kal recently?

 

 

Yup, here he is...

 

after OW #s came out:

 

 

 

and after Mon #s:

 

 

 

And after 2nd weekend #s come out:

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, tokila said:

889 when? End of run?

 

If today comes in it 39million I have it at 898mil on 7 FEB. making 5.8 mil the weekend of 5-7 FEB, and beween 850k-950k on weekdays. I have not extended the model out past the 7th, but if it is doing that then I would assume another 30 million. So 930mil total. 

 

For me for this to make one billion domestic it needs to do over 165 mil this weekend, and then have 10% softer drops week over week than i currently project. 

Yes sir, $889 million when it leaves the box office. I believe the law of large numbers will soon come in to play and the drops will be sharper than a typical mid-December opener. That won't stop it's eventual domestic domination, but I do believe that will leave it short of some of the loftier current estimations. 

Of course I hope I'm wrong, I would love for TFA to be the first $1 billion domestic film!

Edited December 23, 2015 by VenomXXR
Spacing

[maryksinger]

is so strange to see something moving avatar, I put in my mind that Avatar would be number one for a long time, until inflation is so larger than is already, like in 2050 (lol)

[Intensive]

Guys just imagine how much longer these legs will be if TFA gets nominated for BP/other oscars.......

[tokila]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Yes sir, $889 million when it leaves the box office. I believe the law of large numbers will soon come in to play and the drops will be sharper than a typical mid-December opener. That won't stop it's eventual domestic domination, but I do believe that will leave it short of some of the loftier current estimations. 

Of course I hope I'm wrong, I would love for TFA to be the first $1 billion domestic film!

I agree. It wont hit a "wall" but it will look like one statistically. Basically I see this currently teir we are on. At some point we are going to see a sharp downward correction, it will fall, but it will still be doing great numbers compared to other movies. Just not compared to what it was doing. 

 

The key is when it hits that point. If it can make it through the new years weekend riding high and then have a sharp downturn that 1st week of January we have a shot at 1 bil. If it happens the week after CMAS we will be between 800 and 900 mil. If it happens next week it will be less noticeable, but will lead to larger lost sales.

[maryksinger]

900M is locked

[tokila]

3 minutes ago, maryksinger said:

900M is locked

to me that depends on the monday hold on 28 Dec. I do agree Avatar is locked, probably 800m. That happened with this monday hold. The Jan 4 hold will determine if it can make 1 billion or not. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, tokila said:

I agree. It wont hit a "wall" but it will look like one statistically. Basically I see this currently teir we are on. At some point we are going to see a sharp downward correction, it will fall, but it will still be doing great numbers compared to other movies. Just not compared to what it was doing. 

 

The key is when it hits that point. If it can make it through the new years weekend riding high and then have a sharp downturn that 1st week of January we have a shot at 1 bil. If it happens the week after CMAS we will be between 800 and 900 mil. If it happens next week it will be less noticeable, but will lead to larger lost sales.

 

I think it's 2nd week (and 3rd weekend) needs to be on par with Jurassic World's 1st week (and 2nd weekend) for a good run to $1 billion. Something else I noticed which I'm sure others have as well is the international numbers seem to be running fairly parallel to the domestic numbers. I imagine this will be the case until China opens. We should see a nice pop then, the only question is are we looking at a Jurassic World total or Furious 7. Titanic is well within the targeting capabilities of this Starkiller either way, and Avatar's global numbers could fall if the best case scenario plays out across the bored (I'm not banking on it though).

Edited December 23, 2015 by VenomXXR