Tuesday : TFA $7,967,428 #ED was Asleep at the Wheel(He's sicky-poo)

[Plain Old Tele]

Wednesday's drop is gonna be really harsh. We've seen this pattern all year: excellent Tuesday holds or jumps, followed by harsher Wednesday drops than in the past. I think 25% is closer to the minimum drop, and it might go higher.

 

This doesn't mean it's collapsing, it means that the same market forces that were at play for all of 2015 are still very much in play now.

[tokila]

22 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said:

Avatar+32% buffer is currently at 273M+. 

I like this method. 

 

An alternative method is my preference. 1 bil - JW = 348 million. TFA currently has a 245 mil lead on JW. TFA needs to find a way to gain another 103 million on JW before it leaves theaters. The reason I prefer this method is because once TFA passes it, it is an automatic lock. Where as the Avatar+30% method will be tricky because Avatar made 53 million after march 1st. I have a hard time seeing TFA making any meaningful amount after that point (maybe 5-10 mil more). 

Edited January 6, 2016 by tokila

[JonathanLB]

I fully agree. ET held for 14 years, Titanic for 12, and 3D was the end of Titanic a bit premature as Avatar (not taking away from it) sold nowhere near as many tickets as Titanic. Frankly nothing has on first release in a LONG time. So I think TFA barring another major phenomenon is #1 for 10-15 years.

 

If for some reason they re-release TFA like on the Star Wars 50th anniversary than all bets are off. Any significant later re-release could extend that time period. Look at Titanic. It's re-release helped against inflation so instead of 5th it's 3rd. Still very impressive.

[GiantCALBears]

44 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Oh yeah! I still can't get over the crazy numbers. Almost any producer or studio would kill to have a $475M movie and this movie will likely double that. Stupid money.

 

Disney needs all the excess $ they can get right now & that's no joke.

[JonathanLB]

4 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

Disney needs all the excess $ they can get right now & that's no joke.

 

I hate to say it but I'm part of the problem. I have good income and live in a very expensive condo but guess what? No cable. And Im a huge sports fan. I love ESPN. But I can't justify cable because I use Netflix and Hulu Plus and Apple TV. Disney is hurting because of those lost cable numbers :/

 

i have fiber internet too so 1 gig up and down so for me that's preferred to cable TV

[philippe08]

3 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

flat is ok, Avatar fell 9.5%

You can not compare to Avatar.

 

Discount Tuesday in 2009 wasn't as popular as it is today, thereby there wasn't much of a Tuesday increase nor the resulting Wednesday drop.

 

This figure is not very good.

 

Hobbit 1 : +19,8%

 

Hobbit 2 : +20,5%

 

Hobbit 3 : +8,6%

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, philippe08 said:

You can not compare to Avatar.

 

Discount Tuesday in 2009 wasn't as popular as it is today, thereby there wasn't much of a Tuesday increase nor the resulting Wednesday drop.

 

This figure is not very good.

 

Hobbit 1 : +19,8%

 

Hobbit 2 : +20,5%

 

Hobbit 3 : +8,6%

 

The HOBBITs were making a million and change per day. It's much easier to have bigger jumps at that level than it is when you'll pulling in six, seven, eight million a day.

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

 

I hate to say it but I'm part of the problem. I have good income and live in a very expensive condo but guess what? No cable. And Im a huge sports fan. I love ESPN. But I can't justify cable because I use Netflix and Hulu Plus and Apple TV. Disney is hurting because of those lost cable numbers :/

 

i have fiber internet too so 1 gig up and down so for me that's preferred to cable TV

They will be ok but the fact that the stock is plunging after TFA hit the high side of the most projections shows how troubled investors are that people are turning away from ESPN/ABC/Disney channel so quickly. Amazing how fast technology can disrupt business models that have stood for decades.

[a2k]

758.3 including Tue

 

Wed to Sun

6.4 (-20%)

5.9 (-8%)

11.8 (+100%)

20 (+70%)

13.6 (-32%)

 

45.4 weekend / 816 total

[rustyspoons89]

2 hours ago, GiantCALBears said:

Isn't Cinemark the only major chain that does Discount Tuesday? Would be great to get some stats on how much of an impact it has.

Every theater in my area that I'm aware of (near Salt Lake City) does discount Tuesday. Megaplex, Cinemark and a few others.  

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, tokila said:

well, I guess you never know for sure, I mean when SW broke the record in 77 I am sure people thought that would stand for a very very long time. But the late 70s brought very high inflation in 5-6 year ET took it out.

 

So lets assume stable inflation. Avatar broke Titanic by 160 million, 900 million would be a slightly less number, however if not for Star Wars Avatar's record would have stood for probably at least 5-6 years. The Avengers which wa the culmination of a half a decade of highly popular movies came 140 million short. JW which was a nostalgic beast off one of the most popular movies ever still came 110 million short. I cant think of any announced movie over next few years that could have beaten Avatar (you never know I guess). So I think that TFA beat Avatar well before "inflation caught up with it" like Avatar did to Titanic. 

 

If you think about it, it was 2012 before a non-Cameron film finally made over 600 mil. Another thing that makes me think that movies are not ready to regularly even target 600m (unless they are a very special case like TA and JW) is because we still only have one film in the 500 range. Once 500 becomes a multiple times a year deal we will see 1 or 2 times a year a 600mil. We only have 11 films in the 400 mil range that did not take multiple releases to get there. So 400 is still a super hard barrier, let alone 5. 

 

To me 900 million should hold for over 10 years. 

1 billion could last for 15. 

 

All this assuming we maintain the low inflation we have seen the past decade+. (not the 10% per year crap of the late 70s). 

 

Onlything I wont rule out is James Cameron. Even though I think he will see some sequel decline, I never doubt the man to turn expectations on their heads. If Avatar 2 does not do it. Nothing will for at least 10 years. And that is just simply for 900 million. Or ET 2 (dejavu)

Very true, but keep in mind that apart from TFA (an expected $500 million+ film that went further than almost anyone predicted) most BO champs come out of nowhere. I don't know of anyone who 3 months before Avatar came out thought it could beat Titanic, and the same with Titanic beating ET/Star Wars (I can't remember what was in the lead). 

It's tricky because we have no real way of knowing of the film that could come out of nowhere, we only know of the ones we have expectations about. Can Avatar 2 (or 3 or 4) do it? Can EP8 or EP9 do it or possibly even Rogue One? Infinity War? Justice League?

Personally I don't see any of these contenders challenging it BUT you just never know. I would have never thought The Blind Side would make $280 million or American Sniper doing $330 million. Avatar went almost 30% over Titanic's initial run of $600 million. TFA will go about 30% over Avatar's initial run. 

Also, we don't know when the next dimension in cinema going will come out (i.e IMAX, 3D, PLF screenings). If Avatar 2 is an experience like Avatar, and Cameron brings something jaw dropping out with a good story, you can be guaranteed it's going to do the same 65% 3D, IMAX, PLF ratio the first did. The only question is does it sell 70 million tickets or 90 million tickets. Neither would surprise me if it achieved what I mentioned because I don't know how to quantify the hype or impact it will have yet. 

We'll see though, it's been a hell of a ride with TFA and it will be the same with whatever tops it!

[druv10]

7 minutes ago, philippe08 said:

You can noast compare to Avatar.

 

Discount Tuesday in 2009 wasn't as popular as it is today, thereby there wasn't much of a Tuesday increase nor the resulting Wednesday drop.

 

This figure is not very good.

 

Hobbit 1 : +19,8%

 

Hobbit 2 : +20,5%

 

Hobbit 3 : +8,6%

Not a good comparison. First days are off and also Hobbits had much  higher Monday drops. This number is great and bodes well for the weekend.

[philippe08]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The HOBBITs were making a million and change per day. It's much easier to have bigger jumps at that level than it is when you'll pulling in six, seven, eight million a day.

I agree with you. The number to watch will be that of Wednesday.

 

Avatar : 6,9.

 

SW7 : I think 6,2 (-23%)

[tokila]

6 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

They will be ok but the fact that the stock is plunging after TFA hit the high side of the most projections shows how troubled investors are that people are turning away from ESPN/ABC/Disney channel so quickly. Amazing how fast technology can disrupt business models that have stood for decades.

ESPN is a separate issue from the other Disney networks IMO. Sports fans have been frustrated with their coverage style for years. Now viable competitors exist and people can finally stop watching their crap programming. (Their live broadcast are great, its all the other stuff). Look, I am all for Kaitlyn Jenner doing her thing, but ESPN failed to realize the average NFL fan sitting their watching the ESPYs with a case of Budweiser were not going to be impressed. They simply lost contact with their core audience, and yes tech has hurt some too. 

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, philippe08 said:

I agree with you. The number to watch will be that of Wednesday.

 

Avatar : 6,9.

 

SW7 : I think 6,2 (-23%)

 

Yes, low 6s, probably. Conceivably lower, though at that point I'd expect a rebound either on Thursday or a solid jump on Friday.

[tokila]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Very true, but keep in mind that apart from TFA (an expected $500 million+ film that went further than almost anyone predicted) most BO champs come out of nowhere. I don't know of anyone who 3 months before Avatar came out thought it could beat Titanic, and the same with Titanic beating ET/Star Wars (I can't remember what was in the lead). 

It's tricky because we have no real way of knowing of the film that could come out of nowhere, we only know of the ones we have expectations about. Can Avatar 2 (or 3 or 4) do it? Can EP8 or EP9 do it or possibly even Rogue One? Infinity War? Justice League?

Personally I don't see any of these contenders challenging it BUT you just never know. I would have never thought The Blind Side would make $280 million or American Sniper doing $330 million. Avatar went almost 30% over Titanic's initial run of $600 million. TFA will go about 30% over Avatar's initial run. 

Also, we don't know when the next dimension in cinema going will come out (i.e IMAX, 3D, PLF screenings). If Avatar 2 is an experience like Avatar, and Cameron brings something jaw dropping out with a good story, you can be guaranteed it's going to do the same 65% 3D, IMAX, PLF ratio the first did. The only question is does it sell 70 million tickets or 90 million tickets. Neither would surprise me if it achieved what I mentioned because I don't know how to quantify the hype or impact it will have yet. 

We'll see though, it's been a hell of a ride with TFA and it will be the same with whatever tops it!

Ya, I just cant rule Cameron out. And yes most of these record setters are out of no where (that is part of the reason, they break out so much is because there were no expectations). 

 

I feel this sets apart TFA from all other previous number ones since GWTW. ANH, ET, Titanic, Avatar, hell even Jaws came out of no where surprised people and reaped the benefits. TFA is the 1st since gone with the wind that was supposed to be massive huge and exceeded (GWTW was super hyped in its own 1930s kinda way). 

[SteveJaros]

Still sticking with $875m DOM.

[JonathanLB]

Just food for thought but I believe that Titanic, Avatar, and TFA were all still #1 at the box office when they seized the crown. Crazy right? I thought maybe TFA could do it but when it stalled to a trickle.

[tokila]

4 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Still sticking with $875m DOM.

That would have been a really bold prediction on like DEC 16th. 

[JonathanLB]

6 minutes ago, tokila said:

That would have been a really bold prediction on like DEC 16th. 

 

Haha. No kidding. Please share that math with me. I cannot see anyway it doesn't hit $900M. None.