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BOT User Tracking 1/15-17 13 Hours, Norm of the North, Ride Along 2 *4-day*

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Alright, everything's back on track and we're putting this stretch of the doldrums behind us. When was the last time we had 3 movies in a single weekend that all at least had the potential to open to $20M? Probably pre-Star Wars, although that feels like another age. Anyway, I'm looking forward to this weekend.


Monday is Martin Luther King day which is a holiday in the US, so we're going with 4-day predicts.


Please provide your 1/15 - 17 Opening Weekend, *4-day* predicts for:


13 Hours

Norm of the North

Ride Along 2


Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

Edited by Wrath
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I don live in the states so there isn't a holiday for me (so are these 3 or 4-day predicts?)


Anyways here are my 3-day


Ride Along - $51.76M

13 Hours - $36.23M

Norm - $16.22M

Edited by DAJK
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16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I don live in the states so there isn't a holiday for me (so are these 3 or 4-day predicts?)


Anyways here are my 3-day


Ride Along - $41.98M

13 Hours - $28.76M

Norm - $13.21M


Oh, sorry.  Yeah, I forgot that monday is MLK day. Lets go with 4-day predicts.  I'll change the initial post.

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We're feeling optimistic these days, as our lowest 13 Hours and Norm predicts are higher than anyone else's predicts for both movies. Ride Along 2, we're more in the middle. Hopefully its a good week!


As usual, I went through the various predicts (11 for everything) and here's what we ended up with:


13 Hours

Mean: 32.2M

Median: 30M

StnDev: 8.26M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 25.66%

High: 55M

Low: 25.5M


BO.com 25M

Deadline 21M

ScreenRant.com 25M  

Variety 20M

Entertainment Weekly 20M


Norm of the North

Mean: 14.2M

Median: 15M

StnDev: 3.12M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.94%

High: 18.1M

Low: 10.1M


BO.com 10M

Deadline 5M

ScreenRant.com 10M  

Variety 5M

Entertainment Weekly 6M


Ride Along 2

Mean: 44.4M

Median: 46M

StnDev: 6.00M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 13.5%

High: 51.8M

Low: 35.9M


BO.com 41M

Deadline 50M

ScreenRant.com 41M  

Variety 40M

Entertainment Weekly 40M


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All 4-day. We went high on all 3, and were disappointed on all 3. 13 Hours and Norm were unfortunately both fairly bad, and while our Ride Along 2 predict wasn't actually bad in and of itself, everyone else except Deadline nailed it.


13 Hours

Prediction: 32.2M +/- 19.22M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 19.2M (off by 13.0M, so 1.57 stndev)

Best predict was our low predict by TalismanRing at 25.5M.


Norm of the North

Prediction: 14.2M +/- 3.12M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 9.4M (off by 4.8M, so 1.54 stndev)

Best predict was again our low predict, and again by TalismanRing, at 10.1M.


Ride Along 2

Prediction: 44.4M +/- 6.00M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 41.0M (off by 3.4M, so 0.57 stndev)

Best predict was, shockingly, neither our low predict nor by TalismanRing! Instead it was by me at 42.5M

Edited by Wrath
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