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lucasbenica

bnk Forecast

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Hello!

In this topic I'll try to predict each player's grossings and strategies. Every week following the players' investments and the weekend actuals, I'll update my sheets trying to figure out who's ahead in the competition. In order to do so, I'll focus in each player's grosses so far + estimates of how their current investments will do week to week until they're off the screens + estimates of their yet to be released pictures. All estimates provided by bnk forecast (that's me).

Week 5 report: "Deadpool" defines who will lead the competition.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

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Even though @Simionski leads the competition due to his investment in "Ride Along 2", the highest-grossing film so far, it's actually the investors of "Deadpool" who will be in the lead by March. @Wrath (Deadpool 100%/Zootopia 15%) and @lucasbenica (Deadpool 100%/Zootopia 20%) are expected to gross over $200m with their future investments with the help from their "Zootopia" share, but it is "Zoolander 2" which will give @Wrath more advantage to become #1. The Disney animation will also make their investors happy, even though it won't be as profitable as "Deadpool". BourneFan #1 (Zootopia 25%) and @JJ-8 (Deadpool 50%/Zootopia 20%) will be right next to @Simionski, therefore completing the top 5.

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Week 6 report: "Deadpool" unexpected big numbers bumps up its investors' company value.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

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As of Feb 15.

 

Last week hottest investment, "10 Cloverfield Lane" (CJohn 100%, DAJK 100%, Grey Ghost 100%) made a difference in the chart, but it cannot match up to "Deadpool" opening weekend. The Marvel film grossed way more than expected: 80% of its total gross forecast. That ends up bumping up its final number and its investors' company values, making @lucasbenica hit the $600m mark, who has now a little more advantage than @Wrath ($576m) to become #1, mostly because of his "Zootopia" +25% investment.


But big company value numbers don't always suggest winners. lucasbenica has invested 525% so far, a high number compared to the active players' average (325%), so as @Simionski (575%) and @Wrath (465%). That may turn into a disadvantage further ahead if such difference remains.

 

The top 5 remains the same. While Wrath and lucasbenica struggle for #1, @JJ-8 and Simionski fight for #3 (JJ-8 is more likely to surpass Simionski). The last spot goes to BourneFan #1, but it may play out some other way since @CJohn (who has huge investments Zootopia 50%, Cloverfield 100% which may perform better than expected), DAJK and Grey Ghost have really close numbers. If Grey Ghost gets to invest more on "Batman" than the others in a couple of weeks (since he has more money in his account), it may impact the #5 dynamic.

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Week 7 report: Wrath's new investments make him #1, but can Batman and Superman change things?

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

 

As of Feb 21.

 

Right after week 6 report, @Wrath invested nearly $80m in films which were released this weekend and future releases, easily making him #1 in company value. When we take these new investments (mostly because of Zootopia +60%) into account, we can estimate a grow of 243% in his future releases grosses compared to last week. Then we predicted that his yet to be released films could gross $42m and now we predict they can reach $144m. Nevertheless, @CJohn holds bigger numbers when we consider future grosses: $176m (Zootopia 50%, Cloverfield 100%).

@CJohn also holds the second biggest increase (47%) in company value when compared to last week, what means he's growing way faster than the top 3 @Wrath (+12%), @lucasbenica (-7%) and @JJ-8 (+11%) whether because of new investments or old investments that now look more promising.

 

The Company Value top 5 remains the same: @Wrath ($719m), @lucasbenica ($614m), @JJ-8 ($471m), @Simionski ($405m) and @BourneFan #1 ($338m). @CJohn ($327m) may surpass @BourneFan #1 if "Cloverfield" performs better than expected. @Wrath also has the biggest revenue and highest weekend so far, even though @The Panda is the best investor and has the biggest return on investment.

 

Can "Batman v Superman" change things?
Yes, a lot. If @Wrath doesn't invest on BvS, @lucasbenica, @JJ-8 and @Simionski are very likely to surpass him if they get to invest 100%. @BourneFan #1, @CJohn, @DAJK, @chasmmi, @grey ghost and @The Panda will even the score with @Wrath's current numbers if they get to invest 100%. "BvS" will be a bigger deal than "Deadpool", that's for sure.

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Week 8 report: Batman and Superman don't really change stuff.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

PB9in5v.png
 

Up to and including Feb 28.


About $700m were invested this week, a figure that represents 30% of all investments so far. Batman and Superman are the ones to blame. It would be nice to know how it's changed the players' company values, but bnk Forecast sadly announces it's suffered a cyber terrorist attack that compromised its data earlier this year (cof cof). The unidentified terrorist's target was the formula to estimate each player's company values. All previous reports were calculating their CV as $100.000.000 + revenue, BUT THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE DOES IT CYBER TERRORIST? Now we got it right and the CV value truly represents the amount each player will have in their bank account when the game is over: $100.000.000 + profit (profit = revenue - investments).

 

Nevertheless, the biggest change was @lucasbenica's revenue mostly because he broke his piggy bank and made a 95% investment on "Batman v Superman", making him #1 in Revenue ($982m). He may steal @Wrath's Highest Weekend when BvS comes out ($144m v $162m). But as you can now see (new blue line), Wrath still holds #1 for Company Value with $668m. lucasbenica is a close second with $613m, @The Panda is #3 with $348m, @JJ-8 #4 $329m and @Simionski #5 $317m. The Panda holds the title for Return on Investment and Best Investor, both by a large margin.

 

Anyway, now the graph looks neat. It gives a better sense that it's not only revenue that defines the winner of the competition. For instance, lucasbenica has the best revenue, but it's Wrath who has the highest company value. And there are still other stuff that you can't see in the graphic that determine a winner, such as highest weekend, return on investment and best investor. These last two may be indicated by the green future profit line (the closest to the top of each player's total revenue the best). I'm trying new ways to include these, but I don't think it's necessary 'cause they're mentioned in the text.

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Week 9 report: A calm week for everyone (and Zootopia performs better than expected).

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

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Up to and including Mar 6.


This week had no big investments. Zootopia's performance last weekend ended up being the biggest change in Company Value. @WrathOfHan had a growth of 103% while @CJohn 75% due to their 50% investment on the Disney animated film. @Wrath invested 70% on that and had a 31% increase, but what's $52m to him?

 

Anyway, @lucasbenica still remains #1 in Revenue ($1b, now that he's bought 25% of 10 Cloverfield Lane),  @Wrath still has the Highest Weekend (but it's very likely that that may change when BvS comes out cause we estimate a $162m weekend for @lucasbenica) and still holds #1 for Company Value with $761m. lucasbenica is #2 with $690m, @JJ-8 #3 $394m (last week he was #4), @The Panda is #4 with $364m (lw #3), and @Simionski #5 $329m. The Panda holds the title for Return on Investment and Best Investor.

 

 

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Week 10 report: Cjohn is the week's best player.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

5epbZdj.png 5epbZdj.png

 

Up to and including Mar 13.


That was another calm week in FBO. However, @CJohn (Hardcore Henry 100%, The Boss 75%) could be considered the week's best player. Last week he was #6 in Revenue and now he jumped to #4, joining @grey ghost and @JJ-8 in the B-Team. He also performs well on Company Value, increased by 22% compared to last week. 


@lucasbenica still remains #1 in Revenue ($1.1b),  @Wrath still holds #1 for Company Value with $848m and has the Highest Weekend, even though it's very likely that that may change when BvS comes out cause we estimate a $193m weekend for @lucasbenica, a higher number than last week because of his latest acquisitions (Miracles from Heaven 100%, BvS 5%). The Panda holds the title for Return on Investment and Best Investor.

 

About the traffic lights: they're a new thing. They basically translate what the graph shows, but they say "well, you're red as Best investor, why don't you improve your profit/% invested? You're doing good on Company Value, tho, so keep it going, bro". And stuff like that. They can change based both on your performance and the other players'. Let's see how it works out week to week.

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Week 11 report: Wrath crosses the $1 billion mark in Revenue.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

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Up to and including Mar 20.
 

Last weekend (Mar 18-20) @lucasbenica finally stole @Wrath's #1 spot. Well, Wrath stole lucasbenica's spot as best revenue. A $34 million distance is what now makes Wrath #1 in revenue. Even though @CJohn had a nice performance (highest increase in Company value +29% and Revenue +4%), this week's best player was @grey ghost. He was the only one that managed to grow in all four rankings: Company value (+20%), Revenue (+3%), Profit/% (6%) and Return on investment (+3%).
 

When we see last week numbers compared to its previous week, we can observe there's been a small recession in overall performance: -2,6%. It would've been worse if Grey Ghost (+7,7%), Cjohn (+5,3%) and @WrathOfHan (+4,8%) weren't there to help everyone out. What dragged the players down this week was the low predictions for April movies: there is only one profitable investment, which is "God's Not Dead 2". But there's hope when we get to May. April films will likely gross something around $650 million, but May will bring $1.4 billion (an optimistic forecast). So let's see how it turns out.
 

It annoyed me that only Revenue and Company Value were taken into consideration previously, 'cause there are 5 ways to win FBO. Since it's (still) too difficult to predict highest weekend, I combined the other 4 ways and I called "overall performance". Now the players' order in the graph is sorted by this performance, and I feel better.
 

So, Wrath remains #1 in Company value. Now he's took lucasbenica's position as #1 in Revenue, but it's very likely lucasbenica will get Wrath's Highest weekend spot next weekend when BvS comes out so that makes it fair, I guess. The Panda is still in the lead as Best investor and Return on investment.

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@lucasbenica

 

There are indeed 5 different Charts or awards that I handed out in the past :-

 

The Geekfreek Awards are handed out annually......

 

* ROI Award (Return on Investment) ~ Calculated as Average % Gain

* Best Investor Award ~ calculated as $ earnt per % Spent

* Company Value Award ~ it's your bank account essentially at the end of the game...

* Revenue Award ~ i'm sure u can guess this one :P

 

I also hand some "technical awards" too 

* Sales Award ~ basically who ever made the most onsales to another player through the year

* The Weekend Award ~ highest weekend of the year...

 

And Finally the big daddy..... 

* The Geekfreek Award (Named after the user who first developed the game back in BOM forum days...)

 

The Greekfreek Award as always reflects the best player of the game (it's a calculated score based upon all the main charts above - weighted (excludes technical) )

 

(and yes my spreadsheet calculates all of these already :) )

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14 hours ago, JJ-8 said:

[...] I also hand some "technical awards" too [...]

* The Weekend Award ~ highest weekend of the year...

[...]

The Greekfreek Award as always reflects the best player of the game (it's a calculated score based upon all the main charts above - weighted (excludes technical) )


 

On 21/03/2016 at 6:35 PM, lucasbenica said:

Week 11 report[...]

 

So, Wrath remains #1 in Company value. Now he's took lucasbenica's position as #1 in Revenue, but it's very likely lucasbenica will get Wrath's Highest weekend spot next weekend when BvS comes out so that makes it fair, I guess.


I'll take that back. lol

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17 hours ago, JJ-8 said:

* ROI Award (Return on Investment) ~ Calculated as Average % Gain

* Best Investor Award ~ calculated as $ earnt per % Spent

 

Wait. I think I might be calculating ROI wrong. It should be calculated as [TOTAL GROSS] / [TOTAL INVESTED] - 1, right? But then that would mean that Jayhawk and ThatOneGuy would be winning with 166% (right?), and they have only invested in The Forest. One movie. And on the game's first week. Is there a rule to prevent this?

About BI, i think i'm getting it right but just to be clear, should it be calculated as [TOTAL GROSS] / [TOTAL INVESTMENTS %]?

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2 hours ago, lucasbenica said:

 

Wait. I think I might be calculating ROI wrong. It should be calculated as [TOTAL GROSS] / [TOTAL INVESTED] - 1, right? But then that would mean that Jayhawk and ThatOneGuy would be winning with 166% (right?), and they have only invested in The Forest. One movie. And on the game's first week. Is there a rule to prevent this?

About BI, i think i'm getting it right but just to be clear, should it be calculated as [TOTAL GROSS] / [TOTAL INVESTMENTS %]?

 

I'll post my tables later. U r tech correct. Accept u have invested a min # of films to qualify. (7 was the # from memory. ) 

 

Yes u have BI correct. 

 

 

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Week 12 report: No longer a bridesmaid, Lucasbenica surpasses Wrath in CV and Revenue.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

Up to and including Mar 27.
 

BvS performance was a little better than expected in its opening weekend and a few forecast tweaks (Divergent gross wasn't being updated correctly and when corrected it contributed to the player's CV) put @lucasbenica as first player and @Wrath as second, even though it's by a small amount (CV $10m and Revenue $20m differences). @Exxdee was the week's best player with a 24,7% increase in overall performance mostly because of BvS perfomance that bursted his CV.
 

So lucasbenica is now #1 in Company value and Revenue. @CJohn is #1 in ROI. @The Panda Knight is the Best Investor.

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Week 14 report: Civil War helps players to catch up to Deadpool investors.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

bOQh7do.png

Up to and including Apr 10.
 

@CJohn (100%), @grey ghost (85%), @BourneFan #1 (60%) and @Simionski (55%) were the lucky ones that grabbed a percentage on Captain America: Civil War. @CJohn doubled his revenue numbers while the other ones also saw a significant increase (+101%, +84%, +63% and +77%, respectively).

 

@Wrath made his way to catch up to @lucasbenica and may as well have better numbers then lucasbenica, considering that BvS is dropping dramatically and it is still to be reflected by the forecast, which still looks very opstimic when we all see what's going on. So this week it can be said that they share #1 in Revenue, but Wrath will probably go higher next week. Wrath stole Cjohn's place as #1 in ROI last week and he's still maintaining it (128% vs 123%), but it's a shorter difference. As for Company value, lucasbenica will probably still hold #1 if no new investments are placed. @The Panda Knight is the Best Investor.

 

Next week must be a calm one before a storm that will last 2 or 3 months. Civil War really pushed some players up and there are big films coming up so stuff will change drastically.

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Week 15 report: Wrath is back! But top 5 can be redefined.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

bOQh7do.png

Up to and including Apr 17.
 

Jungle Book grossed 50% more than expected, bringing its investors @Wrath (100%) and @The Panda Knight (100%) up. @The Panda Knight was the best player, surpassing @JJ-8 and @BourneFan #1 in overall performance and becoming #5. Wrath came back to an imminent #1 after a #1 weekend. 

 

But there is trouble ahead: the top 4 players are currently banned by the active percentage rule. @Wrath, @CJohn, @lucasbenica and @grey ghost won't be able to invest on any of May 20 releases, including Angry Birds ($140m / 75% ROI), Neighbors 2 ($125m / 213% ROI) and Nice Guys ($55m / 83% ROI). Pretty much every other player will be able to go all in at this weekend. If they go all in, this is how it should look like:

 

bOQh7do.png

(each player's performance has to be taken individually since it ignores each movie's 200% or 300% limit. green represents how much in revenue each player could get if they go all in)

 

@JJ-8 would become #4 and @grey ghost could decay to #7. The next week, @lucasbenica will probably be out of the red zone, but the other players may still be there for a couple of weeks since their current investments have high theaters numbers. @CJohn could be the next to leave the red zone but soon his 100% Civil War will be active and may make it harder to get out, and the same goes to @grey ghost, but soon their theater numbers from other investments will drop. As for @Wrath, he currently has 4 films with 2200+ theaters and 1 above 4000 theaters, so he might be stuck for a little longer.

 

So it is possible to observe that the gap between all players is becoming less and less wider each week. Top 5 is starting to get shuffled and in four weeks it will be a different thing.

 

@Wrath is back. He is #1 in Company value and Revenue by a $200m difference. @CJohn is #1 in ROI, but @Wrath is pretty close to him. @The Panda Knight remains as Best Investor
 

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Week 16 report: Cjohn crosses Revenue $1b mark.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

bOQh7do.png

Up to and including Apr 25.
 

@CJohn crossed the $1b mark in Revenue, shortly behind lucasbenica as @Wrath stands still at #1. Civil War investors got their numbers raised because of a higher forecast for the film. 

 

@Wrath remains #1 as Company Value and Revenue. @CJohn #1 in ROI. @The Panda Knight #1 as Best Investor.

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Week 17 report: Civil War investors join Deadpool investors at top 5.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

bOQh7do.png

Up to and including May 1st.
 

I've been busy with some college stuff so I'm just leaving this here. For official bank account numbers, investments, %, etc., you should go to JJ cause they may differ sometimes and JJ's are the one that count at the end. I'm only playing with forecasts ("rankings" column).

 

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Week 18 report: Civil War opening weekend is a little lower than expected, but it's still great.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

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Up to and including May 8th.
 

Same as past week.

 

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Weeks 19 & 20 report: The Conjuring 2 and Finding Dory change the scenary.

(This is a forum member's forecast. Numbers may vary.)

 

bOQh7do.png

Up to and including May 15th and Week 20 investments.
 

A lot happened since last week. Lucasbenica hit $1.6b mark in Revenue, surpassing @Wrath, even though Wrath still has a higher Company Value. They pratically tie when it comes to overall performance. @CJohn remained strong at 3rd position. Players @Simionski and @The Panda made their way back to the top 5. Simionski, who was 8th, went to 4th place and The Panda went from 7th to 5th. As that happened, @BourneFan #1, @grey ghost and @JJ-8 got bounced to complete the top 8.

 

Below are my predictions for each player following their last investments and revenue.

 

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