What is a "breakout" movie and how often do they happen?

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If The Vow was a breakout, so was fellow release Safe House from that same weekend.

 

$126m domestic (with Denzel) on a $90m budget?  No way in my opinion.  

 

The Vow was $125m on a $30m budget and came out of left field.  

[filmlover]

Just now, nilephelan said:

 

$126m domestic (with Denzel) on a $90m budget?  No way in my opinion.  

 

The Vow was $125m on a $30m budget and came out of left field.  

It was a romance movie with a pair of stars who had previously enjoyed success in the genre timed to coincide with Valentine's Day (in a market that was literally begging for an appealing "date movie" option) and was backed by an extremely aggressive marketing campaign for the genre. In the weeks leading up to its release it was becoming obvious it would do really well.

 

The Vow and Safe House were both breakout hits in a similar vein because everyone was expecting solid openings in the $25-30M range for each heading into that weekend, and in the end they both saw openings over $40M. That's why they stand on equal grounds as breakout hits.

[EmpireCity]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was a romance movie with a pair of stars who had previously enjoyed success in the genre timed to coincide with Valentine's Day (in a market that was literally begging for an appealing "date movie" option) and was backed by an extremely aggressive marketing campaign for the genre. In the weeks leading up to its release it was becoming obvious it would do really well.

 

The Vow and Safe House were both breakout hits in a similar vein because everyone was expecting solid openings in the $25-30M range for each heading into that weekend, and in the end they both saw openings over $40M. That's why they stand on equal grounds as breakout hits.

 

 

I would rather go with calling neither a breakout.  No way am I going to define a $125m gross on a $90m budget a breakout.  

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

 

I would rather go with calling neither a breakout.  No way am I going to define a $125m gross on a $90m budget a breakout.  

Fair enough.

[Fanboy]

Two levels of Breakout films. 

1. An expected blockbuster that ends up over performing to crazy levels: 
Avatar 
Alice in Wonderland
The Hunger Games 
Frozen 
American Sniper 
Jurassic World 
Deadpool 

2. Smaller movies that breakout into mainstream culture, sort of like sleeper hits:
The Blair Witch Project
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 
Paranormal Activity 
Black Swan 
Magic Mike
Pitch Perfect (though more so on DVD) 

[AniNate]

I think Star Wars VII has to qualify as a breakout on a certain level. It's going to finish with a higher adjusted total than every Star Wars besides A New Hope. That's not nothing

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think Star Wars VII has to qualify as a breakout on a certain level. It's going to finish with a higher adjusted total than every Star Wars besides A New Hope. That's not nothing

 

That is overperforming, not a breakout.  

[AniNate]

I don't see a reason to limit the definition. Any movie that surpasses expectations is a breakout imo

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I don't see a reason to limit the definition. Any movie that surpasses expectations is a breakout imo

 

What?  No.  

[AniNate]

I know the general feeling was subdued by the crazy predictions of some people, but it broke the opening weekend record by 20 million and that's pretty freaking amazing.

On a smaller level, Inside Out had the biggest unadjusted opening by far for an original film and also managed very impressive legs against a lot of competition. That has to qualify as one too. "Overperforming" just doesn't sound appreciative enough of their achievements

[Maxmoser3]

A breakout movie is a film that exceeds expectations and probably has a modest budget at best. Also a breakout film isn't one that was expected to be a smash anyway. A breakout film is something like The Hangover, American Sniper, Ted, or Deadpool. Guardians Of The Galaxy can be considered a breakout but it's really a film that exceed expectations. A breakout movie is a film that no one expects to do huge. Breakouts usually happen every once in a while(like a couple times a year). 

[BourneFan #1]

I think another recent breakout was War Room. $68m on a $3m budget is pretty damn good.

[filmlover]

The Martian somewhat qualifies as a breakout even though sci-fi pictures had done well in similar spots the last few years (Nolan movies always bring nutty predictions with them so Interstellar's gross might slightly lean it to the disappointment side even though it became clearer the closer we got to opening weekend that it wasn't going to be another Gravity).

[Maxmoser3]

Just now, filmlover said:

The Martian somewhat qualifies as a breakout even though sci-fi pictures had done well in similar spots the last few years (Nolan movies always bring nutty predictions with them so Interstellar's gross might slightly lean it to the disappointment side even though it became clearer the closer we got to opening weekend that it wasn't going to be another Gravity).

The Martian is a film that made around expectations. Gravity is a breakout because no one suspected it to do 55 million OW and do 274 million domestic. 

[Maxmoser3]

14 minutes ago, BourneFan #1 said:

I think another recent breakout was War Room. $68m on a $3m budget is pretty damn good.

That's a good example! Sony needed some profitable films in the summer after Aloha and Pixels bombed. War Room was also a film that wasn't necessarily heavily marketed either. 

[BourneFan #1]

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles did a lot better than anyone expected. It did have a $125m budget though so that probably doesn't count.

[BourneFan #1]

Neighbors made $150m on an $18m budget.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, BourneFan #1 said:

Neighbors made $150m on an $18m budget.

 

I didn't count Neighbors because it was expected to perform at a high level after This Is The End did well.  I would qualify that as more of a breakout than Neighbors.  

 

Same thing with Superbad or 40 Year Old Virgin.  

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, BourneFan #1 said:

Neighbors made $150m on an $18m budget.

Yeah but given the history of similar comedies doing huge business and the fact this one also had months of great reactions touting it as a hit in waiting, it was more of a really profitable hit than a breakout.

[BourneFan #1]

Ride Along opened huge and had pretty good legs on only a $25m budget.