What is a "breakout" movie and how often do they happen?

[grey ghost]

Can someone do 2014?

 

I'll do 2013.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

biggest breakouts of this decade, IMO:

 

2010: Alice

2011: The Help

2012: THG

2013: Frozen

2014: AS

2015: JW

2016: Deadpool

 

Do you guys agree?

[AniNate]

7 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

the last 3 are not disappointments, they're flops

 

Yes, but that's strictly related to finances. If a movie's expected to flop, it's not a disappointment. Those three all did worse than they were expected to.

Edited February 19, 2016 by tribefan695

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Can someone do 2014?

 

I'll do 2013.

The breakout hits of 2014 were American Sniper, Guardians of the Galaxy, and The Lego Movie. Maybe Gone Girl as well, but I think everyone expected big things for that by the time it opened given the book's enormous popularity and the clever marketing campaign.

[grey ghost]

2013:

 

Catching Fire - 424 m

Frozen - 400 m

Gravity - 274 m

We're The Miller's - 150 m

The Great Gatsby - 144 m

The Conjuring - 137 m

Identity Thief - 134 m

 

Anyone agree or disagree?

Edited February 19, 2016 by grey ghost
Added CF.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

biggest breakouts of this decade, IMO:

 

2010: Alice

2011: The Help

2012: THG

2013: Frozen

2014: AS

2015: JW

2016: Deadpool

 

Do you guys agree?

 

I agree.

 

 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

2013:

 

Frozen - 400 m

Gravity - 274 m

We're The Miller's - 150 m

The Great Gatsby - 144 m

The Conjuring - 137 m

Identity Thief - 134 m

 

Anyone agree or disagree?

 

can we not consider CF a breakout too? I remember that most of persons was sure that it would decrease, and it ended finishing with bigger numbers and a better multiple tham the first movie

[Mockingjay Raphael]

THG had two years surpassing the expectations, and two years being a disappointment, who else but the Queen could do this

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

can we not consider CF a breakout too? I remember that most of persons was sure that it would decrease, and it ended finishing with bigger numbers and a better multiple tham the first movie

 

Sure, I'll add it to the list.

[grey ghost]

Number of break outs per year between 2010 and 2015.

 

2010: 5
2011: 2
2012: 4
2013: 7
2014: 4
2015: 6

 

Total: 28
Average: 5.6

 

So I'd say we can expect between 4 to 6 break outs each year.

[grey ghost]

Thanks for the help everyone! 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

who will be the biggest breakout of year? there will be a movie that will surpass Deadpool? at least the biggest disappointment of year is locked to be Civil War

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Another big surprise of 2015 is Furious 7's WW-breakout.

 

Who would have thought that the seventh FF film...(which had Paul Walker & Vin Diesel and about driving cars) would outgross all the "Harry Potter"-movies, all the "Middle-Earth"-movies, all the "Batman"-movies and all the "Transformers"-movies?

Edited February 19, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[junkshop36]

The Hangover was a HUUUUUGE break out movie. No one expected that. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

The Hangover was a HUUUUUGE break out movie. No one expected that. 

Even more impressive when you consider that it was originally supposed to be a limited release only until the insane test screening reactions caused WB to change their plans and give it a prime summer spot.

[department store basement]

Great Gatsby definitely wasn't a breakout - it was hyped to hell, just overshadowed by IM3 at the time since they appealed to the same demographics

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, department store basement said:

Great Gatsby definitely wasn't a breakout - it was hyped to hell, just overshadowed by IM3 at the time since they appealed to the same demographics

A $144M total for a drama that was originally supposed to open on Christmas Day is mighty impressive and higher than expected, though.

[EmpireCity]

So many of these are not breakout movies.  A breakout movie is one that is a huge surprise and the WOM causes it to run wild.  Has to make roughly double the expectations AND have budget taken into consideration on some level and other various factors.  

 

For example, TFA and Gatsby are both not breakouts due to different reasons.  TFA because there were quite a few expectations it would break the opening record and challenge or beat the all time domestic record.  It was always going to be huge, but the level of huge was unknown.  Gatsby was a pleasant surprise given the production, but it did $144m domestic off a roughly $125m budget with a giant movie star attached to it.  Not a break out.  

 

Gravity and Deadpool are breakout movies for different and some similar reasons.  Gravity and Deadpool were both almost experimental on some level and both massively overperformed when compared to their release date and expectations.  WOM ended up allowing them to have great legs.  One of them had huge stars but in non-traditional roles and the other had a guy virtually washed up on a studo/tentpole scale and desperate for a hit.  

 

I think movies like Jurassic World and Alice in Wonderland are borderline.  Sort of breakout, but due to property and budgets they had a lot of factors going for them that hold them back from being true breakouts.  

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Sixth Sense, The Hangover, Hunger Games are all good examples of breakout films.  

 

 

[EmpireCity]

Despicable Me

The Help

Ted

21 Jump Street

The Vow

Magic Mike

Frozen

Gravity

The Conjuring

We're The Millers

American Sniper

Straight Outta Compton

 

[filmlover]

If The Vow was a breakout, so was fellow release Safe House from that same weekend.