Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[cannastop]

@eXtacy

 

Maybe Funimation is saving Your Name's release for 2017. I think it would be easier to get a nomination then.

[Impact]

Shrek was nominated for best comedy/musical at the Globes, it was the frontrunner. It was a major hit.

[cannastop]

Thanks for reminding me about the Golden Globes, @Impact!

I wonder if two animated features could get into the Best Musical or Comedy category. Of course, we know that La La Land will win that one.

Edited September 8, 2016 by cannastop

[CoolioD1]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Thanks for reminding me about the Golden Globes, @Impact!

I wonder if two animated features could get into the Best Musical or Comedy category. Of course, we know that La La Land will win that one.

animated films aren't eligible for the musical/comedy category ever since they got their own cartoon category in '06 fyi.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

animated films aren't eligible for the musical/comedy category ever since they got their own cartoon category in '06 fyi.

Oh, really? That sucks, in my opinion. Probably only made that rule because they didn't want to have Pixar win a "best picture" with every single one of their movies.

[AniNate]

Golden Globes are a joke anyway. Not allowing animated films is the least of their issues

[cannastop]

Sing might get a nom. I wonder what it could displace.

[BadAtGender]

On 9/11/2016 at 3:41 PM, cannastop said:

Sing might get a nom. I wonder what it could displace.

 

I'm skeptical, because of budget.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, DamienRoc said:

 

I'm skeptical, because of budget.

That makes no sense.

[stripe]

The nominees will be...

Sing

Dory

Kubo

Pets

Moana

 

Sing will be the winner, unless Moana really surprises everyone 

[AniNate]

Sing's Metacritic has dropped to 67. Even getting nominated doesn't seem locked

[cannastop]

57 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Sing's Metacritic has dropped to 67. Even getting nominated doesn't seem locked

Way too early to tell.

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, stripe said:

The nominees will be...

Sing

Dory

Kubo

Pets

Moana

 

Sing will be the winner, unless Moana really surprises everyone 

Uh, wut? I think it has a shot at a nom, but almost no chance at a win.

 

And Pets is probably not going to get nominated.

[cannastop]

Here's what Awards Watch has to say about the Animated Feature race.

 

http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-animated-feature-september-zootopia-moana-red-turtle-kubo-and-the-two-strings-my-life-as-a-courgette/

 

 

Zootopia is now the frontrunner, with 41 points.

 

Moana: 36 points

The Red Turtle: 33 points 

Kubo: 24 points.

The 5th spot is up for grabs.

Edited September 13, 2016 by cannastop

[Morieris]

Quote

Besides, is Disney really getting three of five slots here?

 

Thank God someone else is thinking "Are we really going to let this happen?" 

[Jason]

Re: Sing on Metacritic, it's hard to predict a final range because of the fact that Metacritic uses a weighting system. That being said, for the films I've checked, the unweighted rating is quite close to the final rating. Using that assumption, (and assuming random sampling, normal distribution etc.) there's a less than 10% chance of Sing exceeding Dory's MC score.

 

However, my number one reason for being skeptical for a nomination is that Sing has still been noted to have some weakness in storytelling, and on top of that doesn't seem technically impressive (the animation is definitely not as good as Zootopia, Dory, or Moana).

 

Even though it's just one example, I think @DamienRoc has made a pretty good case for the Lego Movie "snub" in 2014 being a result of the Animation branch placing a higher emphasis on technical aspects than critics or the general audience. From earlier in this thread (quoted in part, full post here) when there was a discussion about whether Zootopia could get snubbed:

 

On 3/18/2016 at 0:21 AM, DamienRoc said:

For computer animated films, they need pretty strong acclaim and to have really cutting edge technology.

 

The latter pretty much narrows things down to Pixar, WDAS, and DWA. They're the only companies that regularly push the envelope.

 

LEGO isn't a good comparison for Zootopia. As much as people feel it was a snub, it makes a lot of sense because of the high bar that computer animation has to meet. LEGO is a mid-budget title and it utilizes live action elements at the climax. They did a really good job about making the film look like real plastic, but that's a much lower technical hurdle than, say, getting hair just right.

 

Most of the people who believed LEGO was a shoe-in were looking at the script, and it's pretty clear that while they like a good script, it's not the driving factor for the animation branch.

 

See also this post from the Lego Movie thread:

Edited September 13, 2016 by Jason

[AniNate]

Way too early to tell.

The best it can hope for is low 70s. I can't see everyone else loving it so much more

[stripe]

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

Uh, wut? I think it has a shot at a nom, but almost no chance at a win.

 

And Pets is probably not going to get nominated.

 

Remembered about Zootopia thanks to your avatar! Obviously, Zootopia is over Pets.

 

But I am really feeling Sing will be nommed, and even might win: 

1. Early reviews are already solid.

2. December! It will be the last animated feature. Fresh in Academy minds. And a sure BO hit.

3. Fresh theme... attached to industry of spectacle.

4. Right time to recognize Illumination's strength.

5. Pets success also in their minds.

6. Lack of a clear frontrunner. Zootopia too long ago. Dory is a sequel. Kubo not as succesful. Turtle too indie. We still have to know about Moana.

 

 

 

 

 

[BadAtGender]

18 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Remembered about Zootopia thanks to your avatar! Obviously, Zootopia is over Pets.

 

But I am really feeling Sing will be nommed, and even might win: 

1. Early reviews are already solid.

2. December! It will be the last animated feature. Fresh in Academy minds. And a sure BO hit.

3. Fresh theme... attached to industry of spectacle.

4. Right time to recognize Illumination's strength.

5. Pets success also in their minds.

6. Lack of a clear frontrunner. Zootopia too long ago. Dory is a sequel. Kubo not as succesful. Turtle too indie. We still have to know about Moana.

 

I think you're buying into a bit of festival hype too much. Sing is currently in the news, but it won't always remain so. Disney tends to wait to pull the trigger on their animation marketing, but when they get the word out, they do it in a big way.

 

Besides that, while the reviews so far (only a handful, mind) are good, they aren't astoundingly so. If the reviews for Sing are just "solid" that's not really a level of confidence to get behind. The LEGO Movie has pretty universal acclaim and it missed a nom. Are you thinking Sing is going to get an even better response than LEGO?

 

As far as freshness of concept, I'd like to note that Sing's plot (group pulls off entertainment scheme to save ailing theatre) is pretty much the standard Muppets plot. It's a good and entertaining one, sure, but let's not make it out to be revolutionary.

 

While there might not be a frontrunner to win, the five films you list all stand a considerably better chance than Sing at getting nominated. (And I'd say Dory is probably the frontrunner regardless.) And if not those five, well, there's a host of others that have ample reason to secure a nom.

 

Hell, Trolls stands a better chance at a nom than Sing.

[Morieris]

18 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Remembered about Zootopia thanks to your avatar! Obviously, Zootopia is over Pets.

 

But I am really feeling Sing will be nommed, and even might win: 

6. Lack of a clear frontrunner. Zootopia too long ago. Dory is a sequel. Kubo not as succesful. Turtle too indie. We still have to know about Moana.

 

 

Not animation but The Grand Budapest Hotel came out in March and still got nominations, including Best Picture. Last time I checked on RT (which doesn't matter too much but hey), Zootopia was still the highest rated movie of the year, and even on Metacritic, Kubo is second highest of all wide releases so far in 2016. 
And Shaun the Sheep Movie only made 19$ mil domestically (way better internationally), but even then, Boy and the World made less than 200k domestically and they both still got nominated.

 

Anything could happen.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Morieris