POTUS 2020 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, abra said: And some big local movies are coming out ? The last two years a couple of midsized movies came out. Don't what is coming this year. @Olivemight know what is releasing May Day weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, abra said: And some big local movies are coming out ? 2017 BIFF's opening film "This Is Not What I Expected" Huang Bo's "Battle of Memories" Andy Lau's "Shocked Wave" Huang Bo's movie will be a winner. Edited April 5, 2017 by Lihongkim 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) On Tuesday, April 04, 2017 at 9:23 AM, POTUS said: No. Slowing down to 15-25% daily after the first few days is what WC BATB and Kong did. Was up 35% on Monday. Looking for it to hug 20% thru next Monday. Thinking it's daily % increases will fall between Kong and WC Revised Tonight 13.5 14.5 +27% W 16 +20% 19.5 +27% Th 19 +20% 24.0 +22% F 23.7 +20% 29.2 +22% S 27.4 +20 35.2 +22% S 32.8 +20 42.9 +22% M 41 +25% 53.6 +25% T 53 +30% 71.6 +30% W 70 +40% 100.0 +40% Th 119 +70% 160.0 +60% 160m? Really? 480m OD? Possible? I'm trying to be conservative. It's not slowing down. FF7 did 347m on a sunday with half the seats. OD 350-480m keeping the low end of the range in place in case of big slow down OW 1.1B - the sky SW7 all time record weekend ¥1711m Just sayin' Edited April 5, 2017 by POTUS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 1 hour ago, POTUS said: 160m? Really? 480m OD? Possible? I'm trying to be conservative. It's not slowing down. FF7 did 347m on a sunday with half the seats. OD 350-480m keeping the low end of the range in place in case of big slow down OW 1.1B - the sky SW7 all time record weekend ¥1711m Just sayin' Am I wrong or those OD projections do not include midnights ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, peludo said: Am I wrong or those OD projections do not include midnights ?? They don't. Add in those Total OD could be 500M-600M. Edited April 5, 2017 by druv10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, druv10 said: They don't. Add in those Total OD could be 500M-600M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 (edited) I think presales multi will be lower than norm for sure. It would have sold out many peak time shows and so growth would be limited. Its similar to SW7 making 250m OW from 100m+ presales while normal movies only have 1/3 presales and still have humongous OW. @Olive can answer as to how big the screens are. I remember Furious 7 having 110 tickets sold per show for its OD. How big F8 can be. If it has 150K shows and 110 tickets per show sold, it will sell 16.5m tickets for friday and that will translate to about 700m+ yuan based on usual ticket rates !!!!!!!! But realistically it will be around half that number. Edited April 5, 2017 by keysersoze123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 23 hours ago, abra said: [9 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 4.94m Fri: 14.20m Sat: 5.64m Gewara - 26462 [8 days+ 1 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 6.3m Fri: 19.02m Sat: 7.47m OW 36.46m [7 days+ 23 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 22.52m Fri: 27.78m 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 25 hours Ghost in the Shell Midnight: 0.8m Fri: 6.98m OD should target 40-45M yuan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, Olive said: [8 days+ 1 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 6.3m Fri: 19.02m Sat: 7.47m OW 36.46m [7 days+ 23 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 22.52m Fri: 27.78m [8 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 6.38m Fri: 19.24m Sat: 7.57m [8 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 22.51m Fri: 27.78m Sat: 9.77m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 (edited) 16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: I think presales multi will be lower than norm for sure. It would have sold out many peak time shows and so growth would be limited. Its similar to SW7 making 250m OW from 100m+ presales while normal movies only have 1/3 presales and still have humongous OW. @Olive can answer as to how big the screens are. I remember Furious 7 having 110 tickets sold per show for its OD. How big F8 can be. If it has 150K shows and 110 tickets per show sold, it will sell 16.5m tickets for friday and that will translate to about 700m+ yuan based on usual ticket rates !!!!!!!! But realistically it will be around half that number. The OD PS multies are increasing though. I'm sure both Mermaid and JTTW were selling out peak shows. They were Mer 2.0 then a year later JT 2.5x. Locals usually have low multies especially for holidays. WC was 2.6 and RE6 was 2.9 all other HLWD have been over 3 for months now. JTTW had 107k shows and did 356m. I assume FF8 175k+ shows. It will have a smaller matinee attendance since it's not a holiday but it can gain with 70% more evening shows. Another proof that it isn't frontloaded like WC is MN which is just 1/3(the final should beat WC) while OD will be even as of tonight. I think at least 3x will happen. It looks like it's going add 6m+ today for another 30%+ gain. 400m+ 400m - ???? Is the range. Note. Needs 540m OD(+MN) to beat SW7 OW. Food for thought. 75mn/540od/640sat/470sun 1725m/$250m Edited April 6, 2017 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 (edited) I set up a chart. PS heading to 25.5-26 1am tonight. JttW2 and WC were very similar. Being a local/holiday and Gamer/Holiday they were both frontloaded. FF8 is neither. Averaging 30% for 3 days after it cooled down shows that. Dropping it down to a daily average of 20% starting tomorrow, which I doubt happens as it will take at least another 6m +24% WCS(% may drop but the revenue always holds or increases) , and a similar ramp up at the end with RE6's OD multi comes to 408. Being a little more optimistic yet still plausible in the second chart and it threaten SW7 Dom OW. XR is currently $1=6.9yuan. 1711m to beat SW7. FF7s first 3 days(Sun,Mon,Tue) 753m/$121m including MN. Shows/Screens have doubled since FF7. Holdovers will likely make just 130m. 1.38B/$200m is looking good. A 9+ rating on Maoyan will be needed. CBO 3 day record, 1960m/$284m, Jan 28,29,30 2017 Chinese New Year. An SW7 beat and holdovers would still be under the record making it plausable but it would be remarkable since it's not a holiday and not 4 quadrant. They may have added 5% screens since CNY. Screen build has been at +2.5% per month for years. If it bumps 25-30% for the next 3 days this thread will blow up! JttW2 WC FF8 PS 1am MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain Sa 12.7 8.8 2.5 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 12.0 37.1% 5.4 116.0% Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 14.8 23.3% 8.3 53.7% Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 17.0 14.9% 11.4 37.3% We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 27.2% Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 0.0% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 34.5% Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.3 29.7% 25.5 30.8% proj Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 31.0 21.6% proj Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 37.0 19.4% proj Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 44.3 19.7% proj Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 53.2 20.1% proj We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 66.5 25.0% proj Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 88.0 32.3% proj Fr(OD) 11.9 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 141.0 60.2% proj OD 356.0 154.3% 251.5 162.0% 408.9 190.0% proj Multi 2.54 2.62 2.9 FF8 MN PS % gain OD PS % gain 2.5 5.4 116.0% 8.3 53.7% 11.4 37.3% 5.0 14.5 27.2% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 34.5% 8.3 29.7% 25.5 30.8% 32.0 25.5% proj 40.0 25.0% proj 50.0 25.0% proj 62.5 25.0% proj 81.5 30.4% proj 110.0 35.0% proj 176.0 60.0% proj 528.0 200.0% proj 3.00 Edited April 6, 2017 by POTUS 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 one week to go witnessing history 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I dont think it will go that high. 350-400m is the range IMO. Today presales will finish lower than Potus extapolation. I am thinking 23-24m which is slightly less than yesterday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: I dont think it will go that high. 350-400m is the range IMO. Today presales will finish lower than Potus extapolation. I am thinking 23-24m which is slightly less than yesterday. It's running 300-350k per hour. Was 400k per hour when I posted, could pick up again later. I carry it out to 1-130 am when PS stop tallying for the night. Should clear 25m. I think it beats JTTW handily. Let's see if passes in PS in a few days, that the higher multi locks 400m So FF and TF are SW and TA of China 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 The fact that we are even considering (however likely) an opening weekend higher than TFA is crazy. I remember people saying that record would be safe for a very long time, but it looks like it's only a matter of time before China takes it. If not F8 this time, then maybe F9 in 2 years. Or the wildcard Avatar 2 whenever it's released. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 True. With screen expansion it matter of time before some movie breaks SW7 OW record. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Let's unite and kill data force. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 GitS PS are ramping up 100% on its last day. Will get over 14m. Could reach the high 50s with 4x PS. 180m/$26m OW possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 23 hours ago, abra said: [8 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 6.38m Fri: 19.24m Sat: 7.57m [8 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 22.51m Fri: 27.78m Sat: 9.77m [7 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 7.88m Fri: 24.40m Sat: 9.67m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...