keysersoze123 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Its really a dull day for Thor 3. PS increased just 10%. 4 days to go midnights - 735K OD: 2.94m Sat: 1.55m Sun: 1.02m As expected it motored on monday morning. Its just 1112AM and OD PS is at 3.67m. Midnights have crossed 0.9m. Should double its PS today for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) 5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: As expected it motored on monday morning. Its just 1112AM and OD PS is at 3.67m. Midnights have crossed 0.9m. Should double its PS today for sure. Slowing down in the afternoon as has been the trend. Maybe 60% today to 4.8m. If it follows KM trend itll get to 25m in PS. And then 3.5 to 4.5x. Anybodys guess. OD could be 80m or 112m. Rating will play a big part in it. OW to be 3.3x OD. Unless something changes it looks like 665m/$100m could be in jeopardy. Itll need a 9+ rating Edited October 30, 2017 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 6 hours ago, POTUS said: Slowing down in the afternoon as has been the trend. Maybe 60% today to 4.8m. If it follows KM trend itll get to 25m in PS. And then 3.5 to 4.5x. Anybodys guess. OD could be 80m or 112m. Rating will play a big part in it. OW to be 3.3x OD. Unless something changes it looks like 665m/$100m could be in jeopardy. Itll need a 9+ rating 4,8 reached by 10,30 pm.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Thor 3 had around 2m PS yesterday. Not awful but not the super acceleration I expected since things were so slow until now. Its PS it tracking between Dr Strange and Guardians. Thor Ragnarok ( 2 days + 23 hours ) midnights: 1.14m OD - 4.95m Sat - 2.44m Sun - 1.41m Similar comps Doctor Strange[3 days + 4.5 hours] Midnight presales 816k OD presales 3.81M [3days + 5.5 hours]Fantastic Beasts Midnight presales 656k OD presales 4.84M Guardians 2 ( 3 days + 2 hours) midnights - 1.46m OD - 6.17m sat - 2.86m sun - 1.65m 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Thor Ragnarok ( 2 days + 23 hours ) midnights: 1.14m OD - 4.95m Sat - 2.44m Sun - 1.41m At around 1130AM OD PS has shot up to 5.38m. That's less than yesterday. hopefully the run rate is good till midnight. Target is 8M by midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 10/31/2017 at 5:29 AM, keysersoze123 said: At around 1130AM OD PS has shot up to 5.38m. That's less than yesterday. hopefully the run rate is good till midnight. Target is 8M by midnight. Itll get close to 8m for another 60%+ increase. Itll either increase 60% then 100% for wed-thur for 25m or do 100 and 100% for 31m in PS. 100m OD is the middle road(28m PS x 3.6). 20% higher or lower could happen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Just over 7m close to 10PM. Not sure if it can hit 8m. Anyway showtimes are still low(58K). I think that should double and so should start accelerating starting tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 PS just increased 50% today. Looks like 23-24m final PS unless it explodes in next 2 days. If I have to predict its run I would put it at 320/600m. With DS level WOM it could hit 100m. [2 days to go ]Thor Ragnarok Midnight: 1.5m OD: 7.34m Sat: 3.57m Sun: 1.86m [2 days + 4.5 hours]Doctor Strange Midnight presales 1.02m OD presales 5.9M [2days + 5.5 hours]Fantastic Beasts Midnight presales 760k OD presales 7.15M Guardians 2 ( 2 days + 2 hours) midnights - 1.82m OD - 9.33m sat - 3.98m sun - 2.13m 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: PS just increased 50% today. Looks like 23-24m final PS unless it explodes in next 2 days. If I have to predict its run I would put it at 320/600m. With DS level WOM it could hit 100m. [2 days to go ]Thor Ragnarok Midnight: 1.5m OD: 7.34m Sat: 3.57m Sun: 1.86m [2 days + 4.5 hours]Doctor Strange Midnight presales 1.02m OD presales 5.9M [2days + 5.5 hours]Fantastic Beasts Midnight presales 760k OD presales 7.15M Guardians 2 ( 2 days + 2 hours) midnights - 1.82m OD - 9.33m sat - 3.98m sun - 2.13m Agree. Most likely is around 90-95 mill unless it does crazy like Geostorm last friday and shoots up PS*4,5-5. Geostorm did much more but that also was less frontloaded than this will be. I still have for this to skyrocket at the last moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, fmpro said: Agree. Most likely is around 90-95 mill unless it does crazy like Geostorm last friday and shoots up PS*4,5-5. Geostorm did much more but that also was less frontloaded than this will be. I still have for this to skyrocket at the last moment May be China market has evolved. Minus movies like Furious or Transformers(even that is on steep decline), PS formula could have changed. @Olive Skywalker one aspect that drove PS was huge offers by online ticket sellers. Is that still on or are there fewer deals and so PS have gone down? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: May be China market has evolved. Minus movies like Furious or Transformers(even that is on steep decline), PS formula could have changed. @Olive Skywalker one aspect that drove PS was huge offers by online ticket sellers. Is that still on or are there fewer deals and so PS have gone down? I was thinking the same thing.. Friday will give us a lot of information on that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 (edited) OD PS now at 8.2m at 1145AM. Target today should be 13-14m. Edit: on second thoughts 14m would almost be 100% increase. That is not easy. Probably closer to 12m. Its at 8.68m at 130PM. Its run rate has been around 300K per hour. Edited November 1, 2017 by keysersoze123 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Almost 1 mill more in 3 hours.. So 9,1 mill by 3pm This movie is going to need a walkup explosion on friday. Crossing fingers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 7 hours ago, fmpro said: Almost 1 mill more in 3 hours.. So 9,1 mill by 3pm This movie is going to need a walkup explosion on friday. Crossing fingers its at 11.47m at 10PM. Looking at around 60% increase. So will need 100% increase tomorrow to hit 23-24m. It has happened for many movies recently. As you say it needs a walk up explosion for 100m OD. I am thinking 95m OD(still greater than 4x PS) and around 310-320m OW. With great WOM it could still hit 100m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: its at 11.47m at 10PM. Looking at around 60% increase. So will need 100% increase tomorrow to hit 23-24m. It has happened for many movies recently. As you say it needs a walk up explosion for 100m OD. I am thinking 95m OD(still greater than 4x PS) and around 310-320m OW. With great WOM it could still hit 100m. I agree with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: May be China market has evolved. Minus movies like Furious or Transformers(even that is on steep decline), PS formula could have changed. @Olive Skywalker one aspect that drove PS was huge offers by online ticket sellers. Is that still on or are there fewer deals and so PS have gone down? It's getting colder and colder day by day, people tend not to by advance tickets in fall/winter than summer 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Olive Skywalker said: It's getting colder and colder day by day, people tend not to by advance tickets in fall/winter than summer Interesting that weather plays a factor. I guess if it snows heavily it would be hard to go to multiplex. Anyway Thor 3 had good late acceleration. I think 4x PS should happen for sure. so its targeting 100m OD. [ 23 hours to go ]Thor Ragnarok Midnight:2.81 OD: 12.12 Sat: 5.82 Sun: 2.64 [1 day + 5.5 hours]Doctor Strange Midnight presales 1.27m OD presales 9.13M [1day + 5.5 hours]Fantastic Beasts Midnight presales 940k OD presales 10.65M Guardians 2 ( 1 days + 2 hours) midnights - 2.49m OD - 15.07m sat - 6.68m sun - 3.27m 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Update just for midnight and OD. Only Guardians data was for 2 hours later. Past 2 hours run rate was all over the place. Did 830K from 11-12 and 470K for 12-1PM. Average is 650K. At this rate its looking at 22m PS. I am still expecting it to accelerate to 24m before shows start tomorrow morning. [11 hours]Thor Ragnarok mid: 2.85 OD: 14.46 [11 hours]Doctor Strange Midnight presales 1.70M OD presales 12.5M [11 hours]Fantastic Beasts Midnight presales 1.22m OD presales 14.15M Guardians 2 ( 9 hours to go) midnights - 3.15m OD - 20.25m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 15,72 at 3pm avrg 650k pr hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 16,37 mill at 4pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
