mahnamahna Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) Since Zootopia is probably the best of the WDAS resurgence thus far (its screenplay being one of its strongest aspects), I can definitely see the Academy giving it an Original Screenplay nomination alongside Best Song and Best Animated Feature. Unlike Tangled/Wreck-it Ralph/Frozen/Big Hero 6, it has some strong sociopolitical commentary and a great use of sarcasm/irony throughout. It's closer to classic Pixar than a typical animated film. It doesn't have a chance at a BP nomination, but Original Screenplay is definitely doable if Disney campaigns for it. Edited July 7, 2016 by mahnamahna 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/ http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/ Awards Circuit updated last week, and here are their top 10 lists for the screenplay categories. Original: 1. Loving 2. The Lobster (I'm pretty sure they bumped up its ranking) 3. Manchester by the Sea 4. 20th Century Women (Never heard of this before) 5. La La Land 6. Miss Sloane (New addition, I think) 7. The Birth of a Nation 8. The Founder (Bumped up to the top 10) 9. The Promise 10. Zootopia (Bumped up to the top 10) Adapted: 1. Fences 2. Silence 3. American Pastoral 4. The Circle 5. Lion 6. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk 7. HHhH 8. Moonlight 9. Nocturnal Animals 10. The Light Between Oceans I haven't heard of quite a few of these movies, so the race might be a bit interesting this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/29/predictions-friday-mckinnon-for-supporting-oj-for-best-picture-genre/ This is what Awards Daily thinks of the screenplay race: Original Screenplay:Loving, Jeff NicholsManchester by the Sea, Kenneth LonerganLa La Land, Damien ChazelleBirth of a Nation, Nate ParkerPassengers, Jon Spaihts Adapted Screenplay:Fences, Tony KushnerSilence, Jay CocksIndignation, James SchamusBilly Lynn, Jean-Christophe CastelliArrival, Eric Heisserer They differ from Awards Circuit in that they have Passengers getting a nomination, and they have higher hopes for Arrival and Indignation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 Been thinking since Sundance that Manchester-By-The-Sea is likely to win Original. La La Land and Birth of a Nation will probably be its main competition. And I'd really love it if The Lobster got in, if it's gonna get nominated anywhere it'll be here. Adapted looks like it's gonna be between Fences, Silence and Billy Lynn. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 If I were to guess now... Original Screenplay: The Birth of a Nation La La Land Loving Manchester by the Sea Zootopia Adapted Screenplay: Arrival Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences Moonlight Silence 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 10, 2016 Author Share Posted August 10, 2016 (edited) Here's what Awards Watch thinks of the race: http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-the-screenplays-august-silence-billy-lynn-fences-arrival-sully-manchester-by-the-sea-la-la-land-the-birth-of-a-nation-loving-moonlight/ Adapted Screenplay: Silence Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences Arrival Sully Love and Friendship Lion Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea La La Land The Birth of a Nation Loving Moonlight 20th Century Women The Lobster Edit: They fucked up for the original screenplay category. Moonlight is based on a play. Edited August 10, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 10, 2016 Author Share Posted August 10, 2016 (edited) For the original screenplay race, I see a strong consensus around Loving, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. You should probably also throw in The Birth of a Nation for its Best Picture buzz. Of these four, Loving might be the one most likely to be snubbed, given its slightly weaker reviews than Manchester by the Sea. However, if all four get nominated, that leaves space for only one more candidate, whether it is Passengers,The Lobster, Zootopia, or 20th Century Women. I think Zootopia might have the upper hand, as Disney will likely campaign for it, and the writing branch of the Academy might remember it as the animation candidate. So I endorse @Alpha's list. For adapted, Fences, Silence and Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk are the most agreed-upon. Of the other candidates, Arrival seems to have the most Best Picture buzz. Moonlight has a bit less buzz for Best Picture. So I endorse Alpha's list again. Original Screenplay:The Birth of a Nation La La Land Loving Manchester by the Sea Zootopia Adapted Screenplay:Arrival Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences Moonlight Silence Edited August 10, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Original: The Birth of a Nation La La Land Loving Manchester by the Sea 20th Century Women Adapted: Arrival Billy Lynn Fences Live by Night (if eligible, Nocturnal Animals if not) Silence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 10, 2016 Author Share Posted August 10, 2016 http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/ Awards Circuit updated yet again yesterday, so I'll highlight the changes they made. Original Screenplay: Loving (No change) Manchester by the Sea (Up from #3 last time) 20th Century Women (Up from #4) The Birth of a Nation (Up from #7) The Lobster (Down from #2) La La Land (Down from #5) Allied (New to the top 10) Passengers (New to the top 10) Hail, Caesar (New to the top 10) Zootopia (No change) They removed Miss Sloane, The Founder and The Promise Adapted Screenplay: Fences (No change) Silence (No change) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Up from #6) American Pastoral (Down from #3) Moonlight (Up from #8) The Circle (Down from #4) Lion (Down from #5) Arrival (New to the top 10) Love & Friendship (New to the top 10) Nocturnal Animals (Down from #9) They removed HHhH and The Light Between Oceans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 Nate Parker and Jean Celestin are getting terrible press. I think it might hurt The Birth of a Nation's Oscar chances in many categories, including screenplay. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Original Screenplay Birth of a Nation La La Land Loving Manchester By The Sea Rules Don't Apply Adapted Screenplay Arrival Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Fences Love & Friendship Moonlight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 28, 2016 Author Share Posted August 28, 2016 (edited) Awards Daily predictions for August 27, 2016. http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/08/27/predictions-friday-whole-lotta-shaking-going-on/ Original ScreenplayManchester by the Sea, Kenneth LonerganLoving, Jeff NicholsFlorence Foster Jenkins, Nicholas MartinHell or High Water, Taylor SheridanBleed for This, Ben Younger They removed La La Land, The Birth of a Nation and Passengers and replaced them with Florence Foster Jenkins, Hell or High Water and Bleed for This. I think both FFJ and that boxing biopic are dubious. Adapted ScreenplayBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime WalkSilence, Jay CocksArrival, Eric HeissererIndignation, James SchamusSully, Todd Komarnicki Alt. August Wilson, Fences I have my doubts about Sully. Edited August 28, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 On 7/6/2016 at 4:00 PM, cannastop said: I think you might have forgotten that even if I'm obnoxiously waving the Zootopia banner, I'm not the only one who really likes it. And there's a strong precedent for movies like Zootopia to get screenplay nominations. Toy Story, Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3 and Inside Out. I liked it but I do not think it deserving of a screenplay nod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Hell or High Water getting recognized here would be one of the most deserved noms of the season. Not sure it'll get in though. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 20 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Hell or High Water getting recognized here would be one of the most deserved noms of the season. Not sure it'll get in though. I could see it. I also think Bridges could happen depending on what category he's placed in (his chances are probably better in Supporting). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted August 29, 2016 Author Share Posted August 29, 2016 Awards Circuit updated today. http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/ http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/ Original Screenplay: Loving Manchester by the Sea 20th Century Women La La Land The Lobster The Birth of a Nation Allied Passengers Hail, Caesar! Zootopia Birth of a Nation leaves the top 5 and La La Land joins it. Adapted Screenplay: Fences Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Moonlight Lion American Pastoral Silence Arrival Love & Friendship Nocturnal Animals Hidden Figures Silence leaves the top 5 and Lion rises to the top 5. The Circle drops from the top 10, and Hidden Figures replaces it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 Updates to Awards Circuit: http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/ http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/ Original Screenplay: La La Land Loving Manchester by the Sea Moonlight 20th Century Women Jackie The Lobster The Birth of a Nation Allied Hail, Caesar Jackie replaces Zootopia in the top 10. Adapted Screenplay: Fences Silence Lion Nocturnal Animals Billy Lynn Hidden Figures Arrival Sully Love & Friendship The Girl on the Train Nocturnal Animals ends up in the top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Now that both of Disney's awards contenders have fizzled out, Zootopia is the only movie they have that has a chance at a screenplay nomination. They're probably going to push it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 i'd say original: Hell or high water jackie la la land manchester by the sea moonlight adapted: arrival billy lynn's long halftime walk fences nocturnal animals sully 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Moonlight is adapted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...