Weekend Estimates (Page 50): The Conjuring 40.3M | Warcraft 24M | NYSM 23M| TMNT 14.8M | X-Men 10M | Me Before You 9.2M

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Treecraft said:

Independence Day is gonna bomb. OW under 35M.

And I believe IDR is gonna underperform big time but this is ridiculous  

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

Conjuring 2 may technically be ahead in numbers, but it is a sequel to something audiences were already familiar with and liked, whereas Warcraft is original. So that's the real win.

 

Technically, Warcraft is too based on something audiences were already familiar with and liked.

[Avatree]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Technically, Warcraft is too based on something audiences were already familiar with and liked.

not cinema audiences.

 

Just now, CJohn said:

And I believe IDR is gonna underperform big time but this is ridiculous  

ridiculous? no one cares about it. and there is so much competition this summer, not to mention every sequel has been dropping HARD.

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

Independence Day is gonna bomb. OW under 35M.

What?

 

[NCsoft]

Just now, Treecraft said:

ridiculous? no one cares about it. and there is so much competition this summer, not to mention every sequel has been dropping HARD.

 

Not much competition to speak of when everything is flopping, I think IDR will do fine. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

Independence Day is gonna bomb. OW under 35M.

[That One Girl]

Yep, my predictions remain:

Conjuring: 38M

Warcraft: 24M

NYSM: 23M

 

Longterm, Conjuring should break 100M, Warcraft will have F4-esque legs, and NYSM should have some smaller legs than the original (albeit still decent) and reach 60M.

[Avatree]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

What?

 

there is no interest or demand for it, there is no Will Smith, it looks generic af, it has been 20 years since the first one, there is a lot of competition.

[baumer]

Central Intelligence is doing 40 OW

[That One Girl]

1/3 of the original's adjusted gross for ID is still 190M. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

Central Intelligence is doing 40 OW

 

I'm calling 50M OW.  People are most likely craving an original comedy with stars  they can recognize.  This looks to do just that.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Treecraft said:

there is no interest or demand for it, there is no Will Smith, it looks generic af, it has been 20 years since the first one, there is a lot of competition.

What competition? It'll have the action market to itself by then. Certainly not enough for a sub-$35M opening, come on now.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

Yep, my predictions remain:

Conjuring: 38M

Warcraft: 24M

NYSM: 23M

 

Longterm, Conjuring should break 100M, Warcraft will have F4-esque legs, and NYSM should have some smaller legs than the original (albeit still decent) and reach 60M.

Why would it have Fantastic Four legs? Everyone hated that movie. A lot of people (most people) are enjoying Warcraft.

[Ethan Hunt]

Its the quite before the storm guys.

 

Next weekend records going down

[WrathOfHan]

If Warcraft does 27.5M this weekend I expect its run to go like this:

 

Jun 10: 27.5M (6M weekdays, 33.5M total)

Jun 17: 8.2M (1.5M weekdays, 43.2M total)

Jun 24: 3.3M (600k weekdays, 47.1M total)

 

This is gonna have some baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad legs

[That One Girl]

Just now, Treecraft said:

Why would it have Fantastic Four legs? Everyone hated that movie. A lot of people (most people) are enjoying Warcraft.

 

Frontloadedness from hardcore fans and generally poor reception make me think otherwise.  It's gonna do much more like F4 than something like Pacific Rim or EoT.  A shame too.  If it had good reviews, the kind of OW it's going to get could've had it on a trajectory towards a lot higher than the 50M range.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Warcraft does 27.5M this weekend I expect its run to go like this:

 

Jun 10: 27.5M (6M weekdays, 33.5M total)

Jun 17: 8.2M (1.5M weekdays, 43.2M total)

Jun 24: 3.3M (600k weekdays, 47.1M total)

 

This is gonna have some baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad legs

Legs are gonna be shit but it should still do 60M DOM total. 

[Avatree]

Warcraft doesn't need the domestic market anyway so I don't know why you guys are all ratting on it. It has already made $275M from outside the USA.

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

Legs are gonna be shit but it should still do 60M DOM total. 

Depends on the theater losses beginning in two weeks. Obviously 4th of July is going to hit everything hard with 4 wide releases.

[NCsoft]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Its the quite before the storm guys.

 

Next weekend records going down

 

I was waiting the entire day for new dory reviews, pretty much nothing, why are critics so quiet?

Edited June 11, 2016 by NCsoft