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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 7/15-17 Ghostbusters, Infiltrator *3-day*

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Well, THAT wasn't disappointing! I didn't realize that weekends where everything surprises to the upside was still a thing. Good to know. Half of surprising to the upside is, of course, an adequately low expectation. If nothing else, this should be a weekend that has that in spades.

 

Infiltrator is actually opening on Wed, but we're just doing FSS 3-day predicts for both.

 

Please provide your 7/15-17 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Ghostbusters

Infiltrator

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Nothing especially exciting going on. Expectations for Ghostbusters have crept back up to a respectable level, but for us that's perhaps the worst fate: neither a bomb nor a hit, just an uninterestingly decent performance. Variety failed to provide a 3-day predict for Infiltrator, but honestly I'm surprised we got as many predicts on that movie as we did. Isn't Bryan Cranston hot right now? How'd this fall through the cracks like that? Another one of life's unanswered mysteries.

 

Our predict on Ghostbusters is a bit on the low side, but basically in the middle, while we've quite bearish on Infiltrator.

 

As usual, I totaled all predicts (19 for Ghostbusters, 15 for Infiltrator) and here are the results: 

 

Ghostbusters

Mean: 51.5M

Median: 52.5M

StnDev: 8.09M (revised StnDev: 7.3M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 15.41%

High: 70M

Low: 34M

 

BO.com 56M

Deadline 49M

MovieWeb 64M

ShowBuzzDaily 53M

Variety 47.5M

 

Infiltrator

Mean: 4.4M

Median: 3.85M

StnDev: 1.64M (revised StnDev: 1.78)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.70%

High: 7.7M

Low: 2.9M

 

BO.com 4.25M 

Deadline 4M

MovieWeb 5.8M

ShowBuzzDaily 5M

Variety 

 

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Ghostbusters

Prediction: 52.5M +/- 8.09M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 46.0M (off by 6.5M, so 0.8 stndev)

Compared to last week, a predict like this feels like a win. Even in a vacuum it wasn't a bad predict and we came in roughly in the middle of the various sites. Best predict was Spaghetti at 47.2M

 

 

abc
abc

Infiltrator

Prediction: 3.85M +/- 1.64M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 5.3M (off by 1.5M, so 0.88 stndev)

Pretty much the same result in a vacuum, but we were the worst result overall. I blame myself, appropriately enough, since mine ended up as the median pick. I should have known no one can keep Bryan Cranston down. Best result was a tie between babz06 and filmlover at $6m. Spaghetti predicted $4.6M and would have swept the week had the actual come in $4k lower (it was $5.303M, and $5.3M was the breakeven point between the two sides).

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