Wednesday's Moana 1.39 | FB 1.21 | Arrival .65 | Allied .617 | DS .514 | Hacksaw .317 | Trolls .2

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

TS2 is what it is trending towards. This weekend will also be about the same as TS2's 3rd weekend, the 4th weekend and the 21st are crucial for it and will let us know where it ends up. Still wondering why most people expected Frozen level numbers from Moana before release.

Nobody was  

[yjs]

21 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Imagine if BO.com low prediction for Sing turns out accurate.

that is still lowballing imo, but they did recently up their prediction to $165M. if the Wrap's high end ($80M 6-day) prediction is accurate then it could still go way up north $300M. I think maybe it could go either way? collider gave a $245M prediction while the numbers.com had it at $150M. 

 

Seeing Zootopia, TJB and even Pets (cause this one was highly anticipated already while it even exceeded that), guess family films are more difficult to predict cause even though it depends much more on walk-ins than presales it's harder to feel the actual hype around you unless you have kids in your family. and Social media buzz is kinda all over the place, too (minus Dory). Take Sing for example, its 49M trailer views and facebook tracking look very promising and I also hear a lot of positive anecdotal evidence online; how kids are dying to see it and theatres are selling advance tickets way sooner than usual, etc. etc , but otoh it has almost zero presence on twitter (less than 100 daily tweets according to BO pro) and the numbers.com says the overall buzz is quiet even for a family film.

 

16 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

TS2 is what it is trending towards. This weekend will also be about the same as TS2's 3rd weekend, the 4th weekend and the 21st are crucial for it and will let us know where it ends up. Still wondering why most people expected Frozen level numbers from Moana before release.

 

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, in fairness, WDAS's previous movie was a mini-Frozen. You just had to connect the dots.

 

I don't think there was really an "over-Frozen club" tho, no? people were indeed very confident with its $300M chance but I don't think that was too crazy given the current track record and the circumstances.

[yjs]

think Moana is kinda on an auto pilot mode now so I will start staning for La La Land too. haha 

[narniadis]

@terrestrial thanks for posting the different sizes - the last one was the worst but the problem is more about how much information is being placed making it run over the allotted space on screen - against our websites black background which means unless the font is in white its very difficult to read.

 

Through no fault of your own, for what ever reason today it irritated me more than usual. As mobile friendly as many sites and features have gone to the Numbers.com seem determined to remain in 2005. Again, it is nothing you are doing - and I appreciate someone who has time and desire to hunt for the numbers as they come out.

 

Apparently I am a grinch this week.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, yjs said:

that is still lowballing imo, but they did recently up their prediction to $165M. if the Wrap's high end ($80M 6-day) prediction is accurate then it could still go way up north $300M. I think maybe it could go either way? collider gave a $245M prediction while the numbers.com had it at $150M. 

 

Seeing Zootopia, TJB and even Pets (cause this one was highly anticipated already while it even exceeded that), guess family films are more difficult to predict cause even though it depends much more on walk-ins than presales it's harder to feel the actual hype around you unless you have kids in your family. and Social media buzz is kinda all over the place, too (minus Dory). Take Sing for example, its 49M trailer views and facebook tracking look very promising and I also hear a lot of positive anecdotal evidence online; how kids are dying to see it and theatres are selling advance tickets way sooner than usual, etc. etc , but otoh it has almost zero presence on twitter (less than 100 daily tweets according to BO pro) and the numbers.com says the overall buzz is quiet even for a family film.

 

 

 

I don't think there was really an "over-Frozen club" tho, no? people were indeed very confident with its $300M chance but I don't think that was too crazy given the current track record and the circumstances.

 

That uber confidence with no reason other than "well Frozen and Zoo" did is what made most of them seem like loonies and those of us who are going to be in the right ballpark were made to feel crazy lol - in other words, normal behavior from BOT.

 

When sing inevitably does whatever it will (over or under) the various crowds will be crowing again (same with R1). Its the cycle on these boards.

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Apparently I am a grinch this week.

 

No, you are not, a bit being tired (pre-X-Mas e.g.) and I can fully understand that black on black is a bit much

 

Do you see quotes with a brighter background?

 

Quote

Moana

Walt Disney

$1,390,221

-36%

3,875

$359

$124,772,054

 

[yjs]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

That uber confidence with no reason other than "well Frozen and Zoo" did is what made most of them seem like loonies and those of us who are going to be in the right ballpark were made to feel crazy lol - in other words, normal behavior from BOT.

 

When sing inevitably does whatever it will (over or under) the various crowds will be crowing again (same with R1). Its the cycle on these boards.

true, true. after all, the majority here that is Sing over $300M club doesn't seem too much different than "well Minions and Pets", too   the cycle is such an adrenaline rush and maybe that's why BOT members love underperformance as much as overperformance. 

[yjs]

Just now, terrestrial said:

 

No, you are not, a bit being tired (pre-X-Mas e.g.) and I can fully understand that black on black is a bit much

 

Do you see quotes with a brighter background?

 

 

haha think you are already doing more than enough and we really appreciate it  if I may suggest, how about making a screencap and post it as an image file?

[narniadis]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

No, you are not, a bit being tired (pre-X-Mas e.g.) and I can fully understand that black on black is a bit much

 

Do you see quotes with a brighter background?

 

 

 

You're too kind

 

And yes on mobile I could read that.

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, yjs said:

true, true. after all, the majority here that is Sing over $300M club doesn't seem too much different than "well Minions and Pets", too   the cycle is such an adrenaline rush and maybe that's why BOT members love underperformance as much as overperformance. 

 

Truth - but thankfully I was on the Sing 300m train before Pets exploded. I could be completely wrong, but if it come anywhere close to performing like Alvin 2 in 2009 then 250m is the minimum.

[grey ghost]

More anecdotal evidence: two out of three of my kids are excited for Sing.

 

Three out of three were excited for Dory and Pets.

 

Two out three were excited for Moana and Zootopia.

 

None were excited for Storks and Angry Birds.

 

So that puts Sing in the 250-325 range. 

 

[elcaballero]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Guessing Divergent: Ascendant will air here finally

 

 

The whole Divergent fiasco is still hilarious. 

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, yjs said:

haha think you are already doing more than enough and we really appreciate it  if I may suggest, how about making a screencap and post it as an image file?

Not sure how much work that would be, to do the excel sorting and reducing thing (to sort out the already posted, showcasr per distributer is something I personally find interesting, as I think that impression gets lost in the typical top... charts), crop it, upload it to an image hoasting account,... every time a new distributer releases its actuals?

 

I am thinking about taking out the distributer column... to get it less broad, try out some things.

 

If I use a mobile and type in the link, do I have to activate a mobile version of BOT? If yes, how? So I could try some ideas out.

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

More anecdotal evidence: two out of three of my kids are excited for Sing.

 

Three out of three were excited for Dory and Pets.

 

Two out three were excited for Moana and Zootopia.

 

None were excited for Storks and Angry Birds.

 

So that puts Sing in the 250-325 range. 

 

 

 

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You're too kind

And yes on mobile I could read that.

Super, I try to remember the next time to put it into quotes

[terrestrial]

BOM we prediction

 

• Quote

   

  • Office Christmas Party (3,210 theaters) - $20.0 M
  • Moana (3,755 theaters) - $18.9 M
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them (3,626 theaters) - $11.4 M
  • Arrival (3,115 theaters) - $4.9 M
  • Allied (3,018 theaters) - $4.4 M
  • Doctor Strange (2,579 theaters) - $4.3 M
  • Trolls (2,786 theaters) - $3.0 M
  • Manchester by the Sea (0,368 theaters) - $2.4 M
  • Hacksaw Ridge (2,277 theaters) - $2.3 M
  • Miss Sloane (1,598 theaters) - $2.0 M

   

  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4248&p=.htm

Edited December 8, 2016 by terrestrial

[miketheavenger]

I'm not saying that Sing will do sub-200m. I personally still expect it to be huge, but I'm just saying that some of the lower predictions don't seem that crazy to me.