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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Damn. If you're going to pick someone from Pitch Perfect, get the one who's an Oscar nominee!

 

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The not-Anna Kendrick one

 

i agree that john lithgow would be a more respectable choice.

Edited by CoolioD1
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1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

And in a shocking turn of events PGA picks The Shape of Water.

 

Note they’ve missed two years in a row so far and Shape also missed a SAG nom in an acting heavy film.

As I said in the other thread, all this does is confirm Three Billboards is in no way as strong as it's appeared to be. A split year is looking to yield split results so we'll likely be left guessing what wins Best Picture until the envelope is opened on March 4.

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Just now, filmlover said:

As I said in the other thread, all this does is confirm Three Billboards is in no way as strong as it's appeared to be. A split year is looking to yield split results so we'll likely be left guessing what wins Best Picture until the envelope is opened on March 4.

I was never clamoring TB as a strong frontrunner, or anything else really.  It’s a pretty open race.  Billboards just slightly had the most going for it.

 

If anything this could turn into a 2015 case where the SAG winner (Spotlight) takes the Oscar.  If the SAG winner is Lady Bird or Get Out it’d also be continuing the trend of a consensus critic choice winning. 

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3 hours ago, filmlover said:

 If Hawkins wins tomorrow night at SAG...

No chanes. Mcdormand will win.

 

But, if "the Shape of Water" were nominated on SAG (outstanding perfomance by a cast), it would be interesting (win on PGA and SAG = mighty combo). 

Edited by KeepItU25071906
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1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

If SoW had a SAG nod  it’d be the frontrunner, no SAG nod is troublesome

This year is clearly going to be the year all about throwing out the statistics so nothing is off limits at this point. Helps that none of the movies in contention are obvious (or "traditional") potential Best Picture winners.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This year is clearly going to be the year all about throwing out the statistics so nothing is off limits at this point. Helps that none of the movies in contention are obvious (or "traditional") potential Best Picture winners.

Eh, it’s less about statistics and more about a cumulation of precursors.  I’d be more willing to forgive a SAG miss if there weren’t three other solid contenders.  When a race is this close, acting branch support will matter a lot.

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12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Until it doesn't (which is the direction this year seems to be headed in).

Not saying SoW can’t win, I think it’s a possibility.  But I think it’s silly to toss aside that fact when considering a prediction.  That’s the largest base of academy voters, of course you need their support to win, unless every other branch universally goes SoW.

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8 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Not saying SoW can’t win, I think it’s a possibility.  But I think it’s silly to toss aside that fact when considering a prediction.  That’s the largest base of academy voters, of course you need their support to win, unless every other branch universally goes SoW.

If it wins WGA ( long shot ) that means every other branch IS GOING TSOW 

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16 minutes ago, BardCrank said:

If it wins WGA ( long shot ) that means every other branch IS GOING TSOW 

No, that’d mean WGA went SOW (and even then, iffy because TB isn’t eligible there).  I do think a WGA and DGA win puts it in frontrunner status.

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3 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

No, that’d mean WGA went SOW (and even then, iffy because TB isn’t eligible there).  I do think a WGA and DGA win puts it in frontrunner status.

It just won PGA and it WILL win DGA , if it wins WGA ( big If ) that means other than the acting branch everyone is crazy about TSOW so it will be the front runner indeed 

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2 minutes ago, BardCrank said:

It just won PGA and it WILL win DGA , if it wins WGA ( big If ) that means other than the acting branch everyone is crazy about TSOW so it will be the front runner indeed 

I’d say frontrunner but no lock for a win.  And I’d bet on it winning DGA but I don’t think there’s any reason to think it’s 100% locked.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Gerwig, McDonagh or Nolan pulled an upset (However I would be surprised).

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