Best Picture predictions-2017!

[WrathOfHan]

Out of the three movies running for BP, each one has a stat against it:

 

Shape of Water doesn't have a SAG Ensemble nomination, which only happened once before with Braveheart

Three Billboards lacks a Director nomination, which has happened three times

Get Out is missing an Editing nomination, which has happened ten times. Prior to Birdman, Ordinary People was the last BP winner without an Editing nomination

 

SOW is still the main frontrunner IMO. Three Billboards won't benefit from preferential voting at all, and Get Out's lack of an editing nomination kills most of its chances IMO. Preferential voting will help, but I question how much support it has given it received no nominations below the line.

Edited February 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, The Mad Panda said:

Not necessarily true, I think Get Out would have won either way.

Get Out won only cause main pretender (Billboards) didn't have the nominations (Guilde's rules). But Academy Award- this is another story.

 

I'm sure Get Out (and I've said this so many times before) has zero chance. I'm sure GO will take nothing on ceremony.

 

Oscar's going to Fox Searchlight this year. Mark my words.  

[filmlover]

The Post (obviously), Lady Bird, and Get Out will be the movies that take home nothing this year. The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, and Call Me by Your Name are all assured to win something above the line while Dunkirk and Phantom Thread are will have tech wins to ensure they don't go home empty-handed.

[Cmasterclay]

Not only does Three Billboards not have a director's nomination, it also is probably gonna finish last on like half the ballots. Shape of Water has its haters too. I think SOW is still a slight favorite but Get Out and Lady Bird both have a shot to finish so high on pretty much everyone's ballot that they can do it. Shape swept up nominations just like LLL last year and just like Revenant/Spotlight the year before but the thing is the downballot categories are all based on number one votes, whereas Best Picture is a totally different system. So I don't know, man. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not only does Three Billboards not have a director's nomination, it also is probably gonna finish last on like half the ballots. Shape of Water has its haters too. I think SOW is still a slight favorite but Get Out and Lady Bird both have a shot to finish so high on pretty much everyone's ballot that they can do it. Shape swept up nominations just like LLL last year and just like Revenant/Spotlight the year before but the thing is the downballot categories are all based on number one votes, whereas Best Picture is a totally different system. So I don't know, man. 

Lady Bird has no chance of winning when it has zero guild wins. Best to accept that at this point.

 

Neither does Get Out tbh. Three Billboards being ineligible here kinda threw a wrench in the whole thing.

Edited February 12, 2018 by filmlover

[Cmasterclay]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Lady Bird has no chance of winning when it has zero guild wins. Best to accept that at this point.

 

Neither does Get Out tbh. Three Billboards being ineligible here kinda threw a wrench in the whole thing.

Get Out would have beat Three Billboards whether it was eligible or not.

[CoolioD1]

i still feel what i said like a month ago that get out or lady bird could win best picture and nothing else btw.

[SLAM!]

Younger Voter #1: "I have Lady Bird and Shape of Water at the top and Three Billboards and Get Out at the bottom."

 

Younger Voter #2: "Well I have Get Out and Lady Bird at the top and Three Billboards and Shape of Water at the bottom."

 

Younger Voter #3: "Well I have Three Billboards and Shape of Water at the top and Get Out and Lady Bird at the bottom."

 

Steak-and-Potatoes Voters: "All of us are pretty consistent, voting for the usual period pieces like Darkest Hour and Dunkirk. Sorry, hipsters."

 

This race is going to be up in the air, with the winner hotly debated, until the envelope opens...

[BardCrank]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

And if you miss a Best Director nomination (like Three Billboards did), you're out too. And this isn't a Ben Affleck situation where people felt sorry that he missed to the point that Argo became the frontrunner.

 

As I said, some stats are about to fall either way.

Yeah except it was the front runner before the infamous miss 

[BardCrank]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Out of the three movies running for BP, each one has a stat against it:

 

Shape of Water doesn't have a SAG Ensemble nomination, which only happened once before with Braveheart

Three Billboards lacks a Director nomination, which has happened three times

Get Out is missing an Editing nomination, which has happened ten times. Prior to Birdman, Ordinary People was the last BP winner without an Editing nomination

 

SOW is still the main frontrunner IMO. Three Billboards won't benefit from preferential voting at all, and Get Out's lack of an editing nomination kills most of its chances IMO. Preferential voting will help, but I question how much support it has given it received no nominations below the line.

Get Out is at the same place Lady Bird is which is the graveyard , not only because of the lack of editing nominations but because of the lack of meaningful wins anywhere ( Lady Bird has GG because it was not competing with 3B , Get Out has WGA which it would have lost to 3B by a few miles because no preferential ballot )

At this point it is a 2 horse race 

[Cmasterclay]

Get Out would have beat Three Billboards at WGA and will at the Oscars. For whatever it's worth the Academy has added about 500 members of color and younger members over the past two years apparently. The entire composition has changed in a way that other award bodies haven't

[Mrwick]

I really liked get out but it does not seem like an oscar movie to me, more like a good horror

[CoolioD1]

i dunno i don't buy the argument. still think 3billboards is winning screenplay.

[Jake Gittes]

On 12.02.2018 at 8:40 PM, CoolioD1 said:

i still feel what i said like a month ago that get out or lady bird could win best picture and nothing else btw.

Last few years have been wild enough that I agree this could happen. Also think Billboards still stands a chance too. For all we know McDonagh missing director was just a freak accident (where PTA beat him by a couple votes or something) and there's still enough broad support for it to pull out a victory. 

[CoolioD1]

i still think shape of water wins just because that's the "safest" choice right now but none of those four winning would surprise me at this point.

[filmlover]

I feel like anyone claiming "Get Out would've still won had Three Billboards been eligible" is letting the backlash (and perhaps their own feelings about Three Billboards) cloud their judgement. It's still very much the favorite to win in that category. If anything it's just not as much of a frontrunner as originally thought.

[CoolioD1]

get out and lady bird both winning nothing will give film twitter a month's worth of fuel but at this stage i think it's more likely than not.

[WrathOfHan]

21 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

get out and lady bird both winning nothing will give film twitter a month's worth of fuel but at this stage i think it's more likely than not.

99% ON ROTTEN TOMATOES

AND STILL NO WINS

HOW COME, ACADEMY?

[The Panda]

On 2/12/2018 at 9:40 AM, CoolioD1 said:

i still feel what i said like a month ago that get out or lady bird could win best picture and nothing else btw.

I think Get Out wins Screenplay if it wins BP

[Webslinger]

I could see Get Out winning Picture and nothing else. With such a tight race, that preferential ballot could make all the difference.

 

That being said, I'm still sticking with The Shape of Water. The SAG Ensemble miss is still extremely concerning (it picked up three acting nominations and has a great cast, so it's not like it's the kind of film that wouldn't be a prime contender there), but the love seems to be there.