Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[That One Girl]

Just now, Arlborn said:

 

I see you decided to go in another direction, I'll allow that just for bragging rights when the time comes.

 

Do you believe the 5th movie won't be greenlit though?

 

A 5th movie would depend on how low the 4th one goes.  If it goes below, say, 500M WW at that point (not likely, but let's say the series runs out of steam completely), then it won't happen.  I'd say a 5th is likely.

[Barnack]

Without stopping before the planned 5, I could easily imagine WB stopping taking all the risk (and benefit) on them before the end of that run, it is one of the very few project that they take that level of risk (and get that type of profit), even their DC movies tend to have a lot of partner sharing the risk with them. 

 

Potter could loose that 100% sure of making a profit aura for some exec.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Barnack

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Scooby-Doo: Yeah the Mystery Machine gang is popular, but a $100M opening in September? Really? If Spongebob, the most popular cartoon amongst kids and adults today can open to only half of that number, why would Scooby-Doo double that? However, I can see it crossing $200M, but definitely not above $250M.

 

 

American Sniper did 100M in January when the top opening before that was, what, 40M or so?

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Aquaman: The character will be fresh off of Justice League, and he's already considered a favorite in the marketing, at least here on BOT. It's also going to be the most recognizable brand for Christmas audiences, much like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. So why would it suddenly drop like a rock in comparison to every other DCEU movie?

 

 

Still not convinced about the quality of the rest of the DC slate.  If JL and WW can both be well received and have good legs, then I'll adjust accordingly

 

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Mortal Engines: Jackson's only other non-LOTR blockbuster was King Kong which made over $218M, and that was a remake of one of the most famous movies of all time. I don't believe Mortal Engines is all that popular of a book series, there are zero stars, and Jackson isn't even directing the bloody movie. Does your average Joe or Jane even know about Peter Jackson's other movies?

 

 

Who knows?  Could be a nice alternative to the lack of Star Wars.

 

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Gigantic: In what world is a Disney musical based on a classic fairytale not appealing to the GA? Will it be a Frozen hit? No. Will it be a Moana hit? Probably not. But I'd still think plenty of people would be excited about the next Disney musical that it would make around Wreck-it Ralph numbers at worst.

 

A Pixar movie about Dinosaurs sounds very GA-friendly, yet that could barely get past 120M.  Not to mention it's coming in hot after Mulan, Grinch, and FB2.

 

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

A Wrinkle in Time: The BFG had zero star power and was the second-to-last collaboration Disney had within their deal to Spielberg and Dreamworks, which only gave Disney two or three hits I might add. A Wrinkle in Time is a Disney production through and through and has Oprah Winfrey, one of the most famous and most influential celebrities in the world, inbetween other recognizable names like Reese Witherspoon. Do I expect it to be a big hit? No. Could it miss the century mark in its total? I wouldn't be surprised. But I can only see around John Carter numbers at worst, and most definitely not below BFG.

 

The last time Oprah was in a film, we got Selma, which despite Oscar-buzz and near perfect reviews, only made 52M.  Oprah isn't a confirmed draw.

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Spider-Man: I guess, but I'm still hesitant. Spider-Man's going to be surrounded by a major superhero movie and a major family movie, and the last animated superhero movie is only making $175M, and it's fresh off of a huge Lord Miller movie people loved.

 

 

To be fair, having Miles Morales, an African-American/Hispanic Spider-Man, I think will really draw out minorities. BH6 did $220M with holidays.

Edited April 12, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

No way SCOOB does $100M+ OW. Thinking $40M minimum to $80M maximum for OW. Nostalgia will be a good factor, and Scooby Doo is an cultural icon. However after a lot of DTV movies and cartoon series makes you wonder how big.

[MCKillswitch123]

@That One Guy Damn, those are some controversial opinions right there.

 

SCOOB 100M OW? Yeah dude, no. Just... no. If it were an Illumination movie, I could see the method behind the madness, but under WAG's rule, I doubt it. Lego Batman not doing it (barely doing half of 100M, actually) proves my point. Scooby-Doo is not THAT massive of a property that any kind of movie of his would open to those lenghts, nevermind animated, which promises less frontloadedness. Characters of similar if not more popularity, such as The Simpsons or TMNT, couldn't do it (even adjusted for inflation) - why would Scooby?

 

Also, Alita has no shot of a 90M OW. Ghost In The Shell didn't even come close, and neither have other similar films like Edge Of Tomorrow or Pacific Rim. If history is a teacher, I'm thinking it doing 90M DOM total wouldn't be worth disrespect, nevermind on OW. And James Cameron is a non-factor. Even if he is producing, he was producing Terminator Genisys too, and that shit bombed big time (in North America, at least).

 

There's also is no chance in Hell that Gigantic does less than 200M. Wreck-It Ralph aside, none of WDAS' 3D movies since 2010 have failed that mark, and Gigantic is a musical (keyword right there) based on a famous fairytale. It may not be Frozen, but it ain't doing no less than the Moana/Tangled/Big Hero 6 range. Not to mention, The Good Dinosaur bombed because it had absolute garbage marketing, since all of the promotional waves were given to Force Awakens and other bigger films - while next year, even if Han Solo falls in December, which looks like it might not happen, it won't suck in all the marketing in the same way that an episodic Star Wars movie would.

 

On top of that, I don't see A Wrinkle In Time doing less than The BFG, if entirely on the fact that it's not a Spielberg/DreamWorks movie, so Disney won't phone in its release completely, but also the fact that it has much more star power than The BFG, and that it's coming off what should be a massive hit in Black Panther, as well as other recent mainstream black-friendly films such as Straight Outta Compton, Creed, Hidden Figures and Get Out, audiences seem to have a big appetite for such kind of films that are largely focused on African Americans and their culture, but are widely accessible to just about any and everyone.

 

Finally, Miles Morales will probably close off w/around 200M, maybe a bit more, although I do see your ambition is going, but I don't think it'll play THAT well. And Mortal Engines at almost 300M? Do people even know what Mortal Engines is? I don't. And it's not like it has a mega reliable brand or name to sell it (Peter Jackson couldn't sell The Lovely Bones, which was an adaptation of a bestseller, so he's not that much of a draw at all, tbh).

 

That being said, I'll be a nutcase and I'll back you on Grinch. Well, okay, maybe not 400M, but I see where you're going w/that. It's not that crazy of a prediction when you think about it. So well done there.

[YM!]

I really can't see the Animated Spider-Man movie missing $170M Domestic due to Christmas legs and as @MCKillswitch123 pointed out, there's an interest in African-American movies and their culture. Not to mention Spider-Man is somewhat of an icon. I'm seeing a run around $35M (3 Day) finishing at around $200M-$220M. Gigantic, I could see missing $200M, but not under $150M. Grinch may be $400M grosser, Mulan may do $300M, and Beasts could do $220M, which could hurt Gigantic.

[MCKillswitch123]

I can't see Gigantic missing 200M any way or the other.

 

Beasts 2 is a little bit of a wildcard. The 1st one did well, and the sequel will have Dumbledore, but I'm thinking it can easily uptick just as easily as it can do less.

Edited April 12, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[YM!]

Grinch over/under Incredibles 2

It may be close.

[ThomasNicole]

01) Avengers : Infinity War - 515M

02) Han Solo - 465M

03) Jurassic World II - 450M

04) The Incredibles II - 410M

05) Deadpool II - 400M

06) Black Panther - 335M

07) Mulan - 300M

08) How The Grinch Stole Christmas - 265M

09) Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them II - 250M

10) Aquaman - 240M

11) Dumbo /Ant-Man And The Wasp - 230M

12) Alita : Battle Angel - 210M

13) Gigantic - 205M

14) Mortal Engines - 200M

15) Ralph Breaks The Internet / Mission : Impossible VI - 180M

16) Mary Poppins Returns - 170M

17) Animated Spider Man  / New Mutants 160M

18) Hotel Transylvania III - 150M

19) Ready Player One - 140M

20) Scooby Doo - 130M

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

1. Avengers - Infinity War: $525 million
2. Jurassic World 2: $485 million
3. Han Solo: $455 million
4. The Incredibles 2: $435 million
5. Deadpool 2: $390 million
6. How the Grinch Stole Christmas: $325 million
7. Black Panther: $310 million
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $255 million
9. Ready Player One: $240 million
10. Mary Poppins Returns: $225 million
11. Ocean's 8: $220 million
12. Gigantic: $215 million
13. Ralph Breaks the Internet: $195 million
14. Ant-Man and the Wasp: $190 million
15. S.C.O.O.B.: $180 million
16. Mulan: $175 million
17. Mission - Impossible VI: $170 million 
18. Animated Spider-Man: $155 million
19. New Mutants: $140 million
20. Hotel Transylvania 3: $135 million
21. Aquaman: $130 million
22. Dumbo: $125 million
23. A Wrinkle in Time: $115 million
24. Alita - Battle Angel: $110 million
25. Mortal Engines: $105 million

 

[YM!]

You guys are underestimating New Mutants and Aquaman.

[mahnamahna]

54 minutes ago, YourMother said:

You guys are underestimating New Mutants and Aquaman.

Animated Spider-Man, Mary Poppins Returns. Mortal Engines and possibly the Han Solo anthology already make the competition fierce for Aquaman. Add in the general loathing of Aquaman as a character and the typical reception for DCEU.... $125-150 million DOM sounds about right.

 

New Mutants seems like it'll do smaller numbers, but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes higher

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Animated Spider-Man, Mary Poppins Returns. Mortal Engines and possibly the Han Solo anthology already make the competition fierce for Aquaman. Add in the general loathing of Aquaman as a character and the typical reception for DCEU.... $125-150 million DOM sounds about right.

 

New Mutants seems like it'll do smaller numbers, but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes higher

Solo is likely staying in May. I don't see Poppins doing huge business, more like Annie/Into the Woods numbers. Spider-Man and Mortal Engines will be hits though, but with good reception towards the character so far, Aquaman could be a surprise hit, also heard great things from visuals.

New Mutants could be the X-Men's Hunger Games if they play their cards right.

[Jonwo]

I think JL will finally get rid of the Superfriends stereotype of Aquaman, he's a great character and DC have worked hard to break him from that stereotype of being useless, all the characters in Superfriends were useless because of the restrictions they had in the 80s. The Geoff Johns run of Aquaman have made him popular for comic book fans and anyone who has seen Batman: The Brave and the Bold knows how awesome he was in that as well.

 

Poppins will be a hit, it's a sequel to one of the most beloved films of all time.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Jonwo

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think JL will finally get rid of the Superfriends stereotype of Aquaman, he's a great character and DC have worked hard to break him from that stereotype of being useless, all the characters in Superfriends were useless because of the restrictions they had in the 80s. The Geoff Johns run of Aquaman have made him popular for comic book fans and anyone who has seen Batman: The Brave and the Bold knows how awesome he was in that as well.

 

Poppins will be a hit, it's a sequel to one of the most beloved films of all time.

Poppins will be a hit, but I see more $120M-$140M Domestic for it.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I really think ya'll are underestimating Rampage. That could be another San Andreas hit.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

I really think ya'll are underestimating Rampage. That could be another San Andreas hit.

I was thinking $55M/$160M for Rampage.

[MCKillswitch123]

I'll throw my two cents at it:

 

01 - Avatar 2 (if it even happens) - 550M

02 - Han Solo: A Star Wars Story - 500M

03 - Avengers: Infinity War - 475M

04 - Jurassic World II - 450M

05 - The Incredibles 2 - 420M

06 - Deadpool 2 - 380M

07 - How The Grinch Stole Christmas - 350M

08 - Black Panther - 345M

09 - Mulan - 300M

10 - Gigantic - 260M

[ZattMurdock]

The Avengers: Infinity War will top everything else. The rest I don't know.