Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[aabattery]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

 

That One Guy gonna That One Guy.

Edited April 12, 2017 by aabattery

[YM!]

Animated Spider-Man O/U Gigantic anyone?

Thinking over. $40M/$210M > $60M (five day)/$185M

Edited April 12, 2017 by YourMother

[Arlborn]

9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

 

 

(further detail please)

You put the sequel to the best movie of 2016 to actually decrease for shame.

 

Same for the 4th best movie of 2016, what's wrong with you??

[That One Girl]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

 

k explanation time.

 

HTGSC - Illumination has been on the rise and this has a prime pre-holiday release date that'll allow it to have legs far into the season.  Also based on the huge book.  The live action adaptation from 2000 was also huge, so imagine what an animated one could do.

 

Spider-Man - wild card prediction, but I think this one could really break out.  Lord and Miller are making this one, and we've seen what they did with Lego and Jump Street.  Also has a holiday release that'll help give it legs.

 

Scooby-Doo - scooby doo is a massive property, nostalgia is big, and if it's up to par with the other WAG release that have been released, then I can see it breaking out, albeit being a little frontloaded.

 

Mortal Engines - Jackson producing a quasi-original sci-fi flick is bound to get people hyped for it, and it has a holiday release date.  And honestly at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if Han Solo stays put, so it wouldn't have much competition from that (my prediction will adjust though if it moves)

 

Ocean's 8 - I'm predicting a WWZ style breakout for this.  It has a big ensemble cast and a recognizable property and a talented director.

 

Aquaman - out of almost all of the superhero flicks out there, this one seems like it'll suffer the most from fatigue.  Would people really wanna see an Aquaman movie?  Christmas legs will help it out though.

 

Gigantic - it just doesn't seem like it'd be that appealing to the GA.  It seems like a Good Dinosaur redux waiting to happen, and I predict Grinch to still be going strong. 

 

A Wrinkle in Time - Pretty sure BFG is a more well known novel than this, and we all know how that did, despite Spielberg being attached.

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

You put the sequel to the best movie of 2016 to actually decrease for shame.

 

Same for the 4th best movie of 2016, what's wrong with you??

 

If you mean Deadpool, I have it set to increase slightly.  If it's going to be coming out on March 2, then it'll be 2 weeks after Black Panther, which could be seen as deflating its box office numbers slightly.

 

Honestly though, Fantastic Beasts wasn't universally praised outside of its fan base.  A decrease is probably gonna happen, although a 3rd and 4th movie will also probably get greenlit.

[Barnack]

On 3/11/2017 at 5:29 PM, commonsense88 said:

2018 is ridiculous, there are about 25 blockbusters coming out,2016 only had 13 movies gross above 200 mil domestic, lot of movies are going to loose money.

 

Lot of movie are made with foreign box office in mind and do not need to reach 200 million dbo thought.

 

In 2016, the numbers of movies with a budget (according to the-numbers) of

75 million or above: 37

100 million or above: 30

 

Of those, the percentage that achieved to double their budget

75 million or above: 23 out of 37, 62%,

100 million or above: 19 out of 30, 63%

 

Not bad at all, still much safer than taking a risk on a smaller movie.

 

And only 6 of the 37 were massive flop that didn't do 1.5 time their budget back.

 

25, would be less than one every 2 week in average, it should be able to work for most of them, like it usually do.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Barnack

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

k explanation time.

 

HTGSC - Illumination has been on the rise and this has a prime pre-holiday release date that'll allow it to have legs far into the season.  Also based on the huge book.  The live action adaptation from 2000 was also huge, so imagine what an animated one could do.

 

Spider-Man - wild card prediction, but I think this one could really break out.  Lord and Miller are making this one, and we've seen what they did with Lego and Jump Street.  Also has a holiday release that'll help give it legs.

 

Scooby-Doo - scooby doo is a massive property, nostalgia is big, and if it's up to par with the other WAG release that have been released, then I can see it breaking out, albeit being a little frontloaded.

 

Mortal Engines - Jackson producing a quasi-original sci-fi flick is bound to get people hyped for it, and it has a holiday release date.  And honestly at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if Han Solo stays put, so it wouldn't have much competition from that (my prediction will adjust though if it moves)

 

Ocean's 8 - I'm predicting a WWZ style breakout for this.  It has a big ensemble cast and a recognizable property and a talented director.

 

Aquaman - out of almost all of the superhero flicks out there, this one seems like it'll suffer the most from fatigue.  Would people really wanna see an Aquaman movie?  Christmas legs will help it out though.

 

Gigantic - it just doesn't seem like it'd be that appealing to the GA.  It seems like a Good Dinosaur redux waiting to happen, and I predict Grinch to still be going strong. 

 

A Wrinkle in Time - Pretty sure BFG is a more well known novel than this, and we all know how that did, despite Spielberg being attached.

Agree but around $350M-$400M

Agree but on smaller scale due to Miles Morales potentially drawing out African Americans (over $170M, under $250M after TLBM broke my heart)

Agree but on a smaller scale ($165M-$210M, thinking this and Jungle Book will switch spots)

Agree

Agree

Agree

Disagree, even Ant Man did $180M, and Aquaman being a main player in JL along with Christmas, I don't see under $200M (inWanwetrust)

Agree, dealing with Mulan, Grinch, and Beasts 2 back to back will hurt Gigantic, thinking around TLBM/Dragon 2 numbers

Disagree, Disney will actually care about this one.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

If you mean Deadpool, I have it set to increase slightly.  If it's going to be coming out on March 2, then it'll be 2 weeks after Black Panther, which could be seen as deflating its box office numbers slightly.

 

Honestly though, Fantastic Beasts wasn't universally praised outside of its fan base.  A decrease is probably gonna happen, although a 3rd and 4th movie will also probably get greenlit.

Thinking March might be New Mutants since it just entered pre production.

[Arlborn]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

If you mean Deadpool, I have it set to increase slightly.  If it's going to be coming out on March 2, then it'll be 2 weeks after Black Panther, which could be seen as deflating its box office numbers slightly.

 

Honestly though, Fantastic Beasts wasn't universally praised outside of its fan base.  A decrease is probably gonna happen, although a 3rd and 4th movie will also probably get greenlit.

 

 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-profit-2016-1202052797/

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_beasts_and_where_to_find_them

 

 

 

Deadpool was the 5th best movie of 2016, not the 4th. Good guess though as they were in the same universe. Sorta.

[YM!]

I'm thinking Wreck It Ralph 2 will be another Cars 2/Lego Batman/Dragon 2/KFP2 at the domestic box office.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-profit-2016-1202052797/

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_beasts_and_where_to_find_them

 

 

 

Deadpool was the 5th best movie of 2016, not the 4th. Good guess though as they were in the same universe. Sorta.

Wait, do you mean 

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-profit-2016-1202052797/

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_beasts_and_where_to_find_them

 

 

 

Deadpool was the 5th best movie of 2016, not the 4th. Good guess though as they were in the same universe. Sorta.

 

A 73% is a decent and serviceable score.  Nothing to write home about.  And again, I think Grinch will still be going strong

[That One Girl]

13 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Thinking March might be New Mutants since it just entered pre production.

 

Yeah but Deadpool 2 can finish production a lot quicker (it could only take like 2 months to film if they start shooting in May/June and finish in July/August, have a trailer ready for September, attach it with Kingsman and boom you're good).  New Mutants will probably be June and Supernova in November.

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Yeah but Deadpool 2 can finish production a lot quicker (it could only take like 2 months to film if they start shooting in May/June and finish in July/August, have a trailer ready for September, attach it with Kingsman and boom you're good).  New Mutants will probably be June and Supernova in November.

New Mutants strikes me more of a YA March film. I could see Fox trying to get The Hunger Games money from it.

[That One Girl]

Just now, YourMother said:

New Mutants strikes me more of a YA March film. I could see Fox trying to get The Hunger Games money from it.

 

nah, Logan released on the same first weekend of March slot, and it seems like Deadpool will go to that spot after the succsss of Logan.  New Mutants seems like something they slot in summer to try and maximize its profits, considering its more of a risk than D2.

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

nah, Logan released on the same first weekend of March slot, and it seems like Deadpool will go to that spot after the succsss of Logan.  New Mutants seems like something they slot in summer to try and maximize its profits, considering its more of a risk than D2.

Maybe, but it is not out of the ordinary for Deadpool 2 like many sequels to be moved to the summer.

[Arlborn]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

A 73% is a decent and serviceable score.  Nothing to write home about.  And again, I think Grinch will still be going strong

 

80% 4.0

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

80% 4.0

 

The first Harry Potter was universally loved, the second had a decrease.  The third did as well.  All of these films had great reception.  Only when the series increased to PG-13 did it begin to increase in grosses (along with the advent of IMAX releasing).

[Arlborn]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

The first Harry Potter was universally loved, the second had a decrease.  The third did as well.  All of these films had great reception.  Only when the series increased to PG-13 did it begin to increase in grosses (along with the advent of IMAX releasing).

 

I see you decided to go in another direction, I'll allow that just for bragging rights when the time comes.

 

Do you believe the 5th movie won't be greenlit though?

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

k explanation time.

 

HTGSC - Illumination has been on the rise and this has a prime pre-holiday release date that'll allow it to have legs far into the season.  Also based on the huge book.  The live action adaptation from 2000 was also huge, so imagine what an animated one could do.

 

Spider-Man - wild card prediction, but I think this one could really break out.  Lord and Miller are making this one, and we've seen what they did with Lego and Jump Street.  Also has a holiday release that'll help give it legs.

 

Scooby-Doo - scooby doo is a massive property, nostalgia is big, and if it's up to par with the other WAG release that have been released, then I can see it breaking out, albeit being a little frontloaded.

 

Mortal Engines - Jackson producing a quasi-original sci-fi flick is bound to get people hyped for it, and it has a holiday release date.  And honestly at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if Han Solo stays put, so it wouldn't have much competition from that (my prediction will adjust though if it moves)

 

Ocean's 8 - I'm predicting a WWZ style breakout for this.  It has a big ensemble cast and a recognizable property and a talented director.

 

Aquaman - out of almost all of the superhero flicks out there, this one seems like it'll suffer the most from fatigue.  Would people really wanna see an Aquaman movie?  Christmas legs will help it out though.

 

Gigantic - it just doesn't seem like it'd be that appealing to the GA.  It seems like a Good Dinosaur redux waiting to happen, and I predict Grinch to still be going strong. 

 

A Wrinkle in Time - Pretty sure BFG is a more well known novel than this, and we all know how that did, despite Spielberg being attached.

 

Grinch: Still, above $400M? Only 5 other animated movies have crossed that threshold, and of those, 3 were sequels to already huge movies, one got it through two other rereleases, and one got it due to absolutely crazy WOM that's a rarity among most box office runs. Not to mention how crowded November will be. I do agree though Grinch will cross $300M, possibly even $350M

 

Spider-Man: I guess, but I'm still hesitant. Spider-Man's going to be surrounded by a major superhero movie and a major family movie, and the last animated superhero movie is only making $175M, and it's fresh off of a huge Lord Miller movie people loved.

 

Scooby-Doo: Yeah the Mystery Machine gang is popular, but a $100M opening in September? Really? If Spongebob, the most popular cartoon amongst kids and adults today can open to only half of that number, why would Scooby-Doo double that? However, I can see it crossing $200M, but definitely not above $250M.

 

Mortal Engines: Jackson's only other non-LOTR blockbuster was King Kong which made over $218M, and that was a remake of one of the most famous movies of all time. I don't believe Mortal Engines is all that popular of a book series, there are zero stars, and Jackson isn't even directing the bloody movie. Does your average Joe or Jane even know about Peter Jackson's other movies?

 

Ocean's 8: Admittedly, I kinda see where you're coming from, although I would probably have the movie pegged for around $160M or $170M. (Is Ocean's that popular of a property?

 

Aquaman: The character will be fresh off of Justice League, and he's already considered a favorite in the marketing, at least here on BOT. It's also going to be the most recognizable brand for Christmas audiences, much like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. So why would it suddenly drop like a rock in comparison to every other DCEU movie?

 

Gigantic: In what world is a Disney musical based on a classic fairytale not appealing to the GA? Will it be a Frozen hit? No. Will it be a Moana hit? Probably not. But I'd still think plenty of people would be excited about the next Disney musical that it would make around Wreck-it Ralph numbers at worst.

 

A Wrinkle in Time: The BFG had zero star power and was the second-to-last collaboration Disney had within their deal to Spielberg and Dreamworks, which only gave Disney two or three hits I might add. A Wrinkle in Time is a Disney production through and through and has Oprah Winfrey, one of the most famous and most influential celebrities in the world, inbetween other recognizable names like Reese Witherspoon. Do I expect it to be a big hit? No. Could it miss the century mark in its total? I wouldn't be surprised. But I can only see around John Carter numbers at worst, and most definitely not below BFG.