Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[YM!]

Thinking there's a decent chance Beasts 2 could go sub $200M.

[That One Girl]

On 4/11/2017 at 6:17 PM, That One Guy said:

I've been constantly updating my list with release date shit and all that but here's my list bumped to the front of the page:

 

1. Han Solo - 190/570

2. Jurassic World 2 - 200/500

3. Avengers: Infinity War - 180/450

4. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 110/440

5. Incredibles 2 - 121/425

6. Deadpool 2 - 130/325

7. Black Panther - 130/315

8. Ready Player One - 100/300

9. Animated Spider-Man - 60/300

10. Scooby-Doo - 100/290

11. Mortal Engines - 70/290

12. Mulan - 85/237

13. Alita: Battle Angel - 90/230

14. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 80/210

15. Ocean's 8 - 66/200

16. Wreck-it Ralph 2 - 50/200

17. Venom - 80/184

18. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 65/182

19. First Man - 30/180

20. Aquaman - 45/158

21. Rampage - 60/156

22. Mary Poppins Returns - 20/155

23. Mission: Impossible 6 - 50/150

24. Cruella - 45/150

25. Bohemian Rhapsody - 25/148

26. Hotel Transylvania 3 - 45/144

27. Gigantic - 35/140

28. Halloween - 40/130

29. Predator - 45/122

30. Peter Rabbit - 34/121

31. New Mutants - 50/120

32. The Pact - 40/120

33. Dark Phoenix - 45/115

34. Jungle Book: Origins - 40/110

35. Action Point - 40/100

36. Holmes and Watson - 33/100

37. Bumblebee - 40/96

38. Tomb Raider - 40/90

39. Red Sparrow - 35/88

40. Scarface - 20/80

41. Smallfoot - 22/79

42. Purge 4 - 33/76

43. Fifty Shades Freed - 35/75

44. Invisible Man - 30/72

45. The Nun - 30/70

46. White Boy Rick - 25/75

47. Amusement Park - 20/70

48. A Wrinkle in Time - 23/69

49. Night School - 25/68

50. Anubis - 20/66

51. Bad Boys for Life - 30/64

52. The Darkest Minds - 25/65

53. Proud Mary - 21/64

54. Skyscraper - 25/63

55. Meg - 25/61

56. Slenderman - 30/60

57. Pacific Rim 2 - 28/60

58. Game Night - 20/60

59. Goosebumps 2 - 15/60

60. Barbie - 19/57

61. Maze Runner: Death Cure - 20/55

62. A Star is Born - 16/50

63. Sherlock Gnomes - 15/46

64. Life of the Party - 18/45

65. Horse Soldiers - 18/43

66. Equalizer 2 - 17/42

67. Insidious: Chapter 4 - 20/41

68. Widows - 15/40

69. The Girl in the Spider's Web - 15/39

70. The Commuter - 15/38

71. Robin Hood - 15/30

72. The Kid Who Would be King - 10/30

73. Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda (which is probably the Greg Berlanti flick) - 10/28

74. Den of Thieves - 12/25

75. A Quiet Place - 10/24

76. Extinction - 10/23

77. God's Not Dead 3 - 7/20

78. Entebbe - 5/12

79. Cadaver - 5/10

 

updated.

[YM!]

I still think Spider-Man could do $200M domestic, especially if Homecoming is well received.

[kayumanggi]

June is going to be a bloodbath.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

June is going to be a bloodbath.

June 2018:

Dead2ool: $140M/$320M

Bumblebee: $45M/$130M

Ocean's Eight: $65M/$150M

Incredibles 2: $150M/$500M

Jurassic World 2: $190M/$460M

[Jonwo]

17 minutes ago, YourMother said:

June 2018:

Dead2ool: $140M/$320M

Bumblebee: $45M/$130M

Ocean's Eight: $65M/$150M

Incredibles 2: $150M/$500M

Jurassic World 2: $190M/$460M

 

Ocean's 8 won't hit $65m OW, I think $40-45m would be considered a win.

[Barnack]

65m OW does sound like a lot for a first weekend, even the original ultra star stacked OT didn't do it adjusted:

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adj. Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Ocean's Eleven	WB	$283,540,800	3,075	$59,518,200	3,075	12/7/01
2	Ocean's Twelve	WB	$177,471,300	3,290	$55,735,200	3,290	12/10/04
3	Ocean's Thirteen	WB	$150,530,200	3,565	$46,427,200	3,565	6/8/07

 

 

Not saying it is impossible because some comedy like pitch perfect 2 did some crazy 69 million OW, but it is a lot.

[NoobSaibot]

Didn't include all films out of laziness and lack of information. But mostly laziness...

 

1. Jurassic World 2 - $205m/$630m
2. Han Solo - $172m/$580m
3. Avengers: Infinity War - $205m/$466m
4. Deadpool - $142m/$379m

5. The Incredibles 2 - $100m/$353
6. Black Panther $116m/$301m
7. Fantastic Beasts 2 - $70m/$212m
8. Animated Spider-Man - $78m/$208m
9. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - $54m/$198m
10. Mulan $72m/$185m

 

The Outsiders
11. Mission: Impossible 6 - $67m/$179m
12. Transformers Bumblebee Spin-Off - $94m/$175m
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $64m/$172m
14. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - $84m/$163m
15. X-Men: Dark Phoenix - $57m/$160m
16. Ready Player One - $57m/$150m
17. Aquaman - $62m/$148m
18. Hotel Transylvania 3 - $46m/$147
19. Cruella - $49m/$146m
20. Ocean's 8 - $45m/$142m
21. The New Mutants - $52m/$141m
22. Venom - $69m/$138m
23. Jungle Book: Origins - $43m/$119m
24. Tomb Raider - $47m/$114m
25. Fifty Shades Freed - $55m/$108m
26. Rampage - $40m/$106m
27. Holmes and Watson - $34m/$105m
28. Alita: Battle Angel - $43m/$101m
29. Equalizer 2 - $38m/$99m
30. S.C.O.O.B. - $37m/$96m
31. Action Point - $35m/$94m
32. Gigantic - $32m/$92m
33. Peter Rabbit - $34m/$89m
34. Meg - $36m/$87m
35. Bad Boys for Life - $44m/$85m
36. The Nun - $41m/$83m
37. Smallfoot - $24m/$79m
38. The Purge 4 - $32m/$78m
39. Scarface - $27m/$74m
40. Skyscraper $30m/$73m
41. Pacific Rim: Uprising - $28m/$72m
42. Mary Poppins Returns - $26m/$71m
43. Halloween - $25m/$70m
44. Amusement Park - $26m/$68m
45. Invisible Man - $28m/$66m
46. Slender Man - $33m/$63m
47. Maze Runner: Death Cure - $17m/$61m
48. The Predator - $16m/$57m
49. Game Night - $23m/$56m
50. Barbie - $18m/$51m
51. Anubis - $18m/$49m
52. Sherlock Gnomes - $14m/$47m
53. Goosebumps 2 - $19m/$46m
54. Horse Soldiers - $17m/$44m
55. A Star is Born - $14m/41m
56. Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda - $8m/$21m
57. God's Not Dead 3 - $5m/$18m

Edited April 23, 2017 by NoobSaibot

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

1. Jurassic World 2 - $205m/$630m

lolno

[Captain H]

With Avatar out of the way, Han Solo seemed to have a pretty clear way to top 2018 Dom.

 

1. Han Solo $525 million

2. Jurassic World 2 $480 million

3. Infinity War 1 $470 million

4. Incredibles 2 $450 million

5. Deadpool 2 $350 million

6. Black Panther $320 million

7/8. FB2/Mulan $240 million

9. Gigantic $230 million

10. Ralph Break the Internet $220 million

 

Other possible $200 million grosser: Alita, Ready Player One, Mortal Engines, Animated Spider-Man, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Scooby-Doo.

Edited April 23, 2017 by Captain H

[kayumanggi]

I really hope the year won't be won by a STAR WARS film. Just for a change. lol

[MCKillswitch123]

May and June are going to be a Goddamn bloodbath:

 

May 4th: Infinity War

May 25th: Han Solo

June 1st: Deadpool 2

June 8th: Bumblebee and Ocean's 8

June 15th: The Incredibles 2

June 22nd: Jurassic World 2

 

YIKES. But it's gonna be fun to see a Summer where there's up to 5 different potential winners (Infinity War, Han Solo, Deadpool, Incredibles and Jurassic World).

[Jonwo]

I think Ocean's 8 should move to May or end of June. 

[NoobSaibot]

On 4/22/2017 at 11:58 PM, WrathOfHan said:

lolno

 

I'm using Rogue One as a comparison point. Also, Alden Ehrenreich does not have the star power that Harrison Ford does.

 

I'll probably be wrong because anything Star Wars usually does gangbusters, but for now JW2 has my pick. I've seen more excitement for that film than the Han Solo spin-off.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

I'm using Rogue One as a comparison point. Also, Alden Ehrenreich does not have the star power that Harrison Ford does.

 

I'll probably be wrong because anything Star Wars usually does gangbusters, but for now JW2 has my pick. I've seen more excitement for that film than the Han Solo spin-off.

To be honest I think you are overestimating Solo, it'll be lucky to do $400M.

[NCsoft]

On 4/23/2017 at 7:05 AM, MCKillswitch123 said:

May and June are going to be a Goddamn bloodbath:

 

May 4th: Infinity War

May 25th: Han Solo

June 1st: Deadpool 2

June 8th: Bumblebee and Ocean's 8

June 15th: The Incredibles 2

June 22nd: Jurassic World 2

 

YIKES. But it's gonna be fun to see a Summer where there's up to 5 different potential winners (Infinity War, Han Solo, Deadpool, Incredibles and Jurassic World).

 

Seriously the most competitive May/June that I've ever seen...

[NoobSaibot]

21 minutes ago, YourMother said:

To be honest I think you are overestimating Solo, it'll be lucky to do $400M.

 

I wanted to give it more than that because the "Han Solo" name should bring people in. The question is how strong it will be with the onslaught of films to come in June, which arrives the following weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

38 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

I'm using Rogue One as a comparison point. Also, Alden Ehrenreich does not have the star power that Harrison Ford does.

 

I'll probably be wrong because anything Star Wars usually does gangbusters, but for now JW2 has my pick. I've seen more excitement for that film than the Han Solo spin-off.

You can predict JW to stay on top, but it isn't dropping 30M from the first and staying relatively flat on OW. No fucking way.

[UNDERDOG]

I just don't see Han Solo making as much as you guys all think.

 

[NoobSaibot]

55 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

You can predict JW to stay on top, but it isn't dropping 30M from the first and staying relatively flat on OW. No fucking way.

 

Well, my predictions are never final until the week of release, so my predictions will of course change over time.

 

As an example, I'm expecting Alita: Battle Angel to perform as well as Pacific Rim, and my prediction is only that high because James Cameron Robert Rodriguez is the director.

 

BUT, if marketing actually catches on fire, I'll bump my prediction accordingly. None of these numbers are final. I could end up raising JW2's gross significantly by the time we get a trailer.

Edited April 24, 2017 by NoobSaibot