WrathOfHan Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 5 hours ago, chasmmi said: How things change. 6 weeks ago I thought the Covenant finishing number 1 was a slam dunk and Baywatch was a dark horse to edge Pirates. And week 2's question should have been easy too Fortunately, next week's is an easy one with the way presales are trending and the probable underperformances this weekend. The Mummy vs WW is going to be a challenge if tracking doesn't pick up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franfar Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 RIP me. This summer has been so underwhelming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franfar Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 SOTM 4 is confusing me. For question #4, I'm thinking that it'll have a 60% drop cuz it's a SHM, and the three DCEU films have had at least 60% drops. I can see it dropping more slightly than them, but why is everyone else's drops so low? Am I missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 @franfar..... that is a really good question and to be honest with you I'm not sure why everybody is going so low. If it is as good as the early word is then I don't think it's going to fall 60%. But I don't see how it falls less than 50 either. Especially if it has a significant Thursday preview number. So go with your gut and don't pay attention to it anybody else puts down 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 1 hour ago, franfar said: SOTM 4 is confusing me. For question #4, I'm thinking that it'll have a 60% drop cuz it's a SHM, and the three DCEU films have had at least 60% drops. I can see it dropping more slightly than them, but why is everyone else's drops so low? Am I missing something? Because if you go over you lose points, I'll likely adjust my stuff going forward though. Plus, that double your points is to juicy to risk moving up a bracket. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franfar Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said: Because if you go over you lose points, I'll likely adjust my stuff going forward though. Plus, that double your points is to juicy to risk moving up a bracket. Ok, yeah that makes sense. It was pretty late when I was reading it, so I didn't fully get it Edited May 26, 2017 by franfar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 If alien misses. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, baumer said: If alien mrs. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer. What about Baywatch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franfar Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What about Baywatch? I think legs will be real bad for it and it'll do under Alien, at 70m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 22 minutes ago, baumer said: If alien mrs. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer. Idk, I'm not seeing many near 100m grossers this Summer. The House and Rough Night probably aren't breaking out, I'm not seeing Girls Trip or Valerian. Emoji has no interest. It's hard to see Annabelle doing as well as the first, even in a barren August. Maybe Atomic Blonde could pull a Lucy? Detroit's another one I think could pull a surprise. The Hitman's Bodyguard might be a sleeper? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said: Idk, I'm not seeing many near 100m grossers this Summer. The House and Rough Night probably aren't breaking out, I'm not seeing Girls Trip or Valerian. Emoji has no interest. It's hard to see Annabelle doing as well as the first, even in a barren August. Maybe Atomic Blonde could pull a Lucy? Detroit's another one I think could pull a surprise. The Hitman's Bodyguard might be a sleeper? The reason I took girls trip to break out as because it's got a unique promise in terms that it's aimed clearly and a black audience and it's got for fairly well known black actresses going out and having a good time. I think it could be a breakout hit like Think Like a Man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 We'll probably end up with a 8 way battle with the films fighting for spots #10 through #15. It's going to be a bloodbath. And here I thought this was one of the easier summers to predict. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 2 hours ago, grey ghost said: We'll probably end up with a 8 way battle with the films fighting for spots #10 through #15. It's going to be a bloodbath. And here I thought this was one of the easier summers to predict. If the scheduling for next summer stays the same, it'll be wild Infinity War Han Solo Deadpool Incredibles 2 Jurassic World 2 DC Movie? Then there's plenty of potential 100m hits in there rn Life of the Party Slenderman Ocean's Eight Bumblebee? Barbie Tag? Ant-Man 2 The Spy Who Dumped Me Hotel Transylvania 3 The Nun Skyscraper Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again Mission Impossible 6 Holmes and Watson The Predator The slates bound to change but it looks packed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 For posterity, here is everyone's Baywatch predictions from the Preseason tracking thread: Water Bottle - 236.1mEmpire - 226mChaasmi - 165mBlankments - 151mBaywatch - 150mbcf26 - 145mnarniads - 145mSimionski - 145m24Lost - 145mThe Panda - 144.2mJake Gittes - 144mThe Dark Alfred - 142mDamienRoc - 141mGrey Ghost - 140mBaumer - 139mTelemachos - 138mWrathofHan - 135mFancyarcher - 134mdarkelf - 130mCmasterclay - 125mgrim22 - 125mWrath - 125mMrPink - 125mChewy - 125mSpaghetti - 120maabattery - 120m#ED - 119mkayumanggi - 115mBastienGiot - 115mKalo - 115mMatrix4You - 115mMovieMan - 113mdamnitgeorge08 - 110mfranfar - 110mjj99- 105mExxdee - 100mMike Hunt - 99.9mTree - 91m Good chance it doesn't even reach the lowest of these with the current weekend number. Woops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 Now post the PotC predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: Now post the PotC predictions. JJ-8 - 288.3mfranfar - 278.3mglassfairy - 275mWrathofHan - 260mThe Panda - 250mEmpire - 238mMovieMan - 235mMike Hunt - 230mdamnitgeorge08 - 230mFancyarcher - 229mBlankments - 225mbcf26 - 225mMrPink - 225mExxdee - 220maabattery - 220mSpaghetti - 220mMatrix4You - 217mJake Gittes - 217.3mGoffe - 205mThat One Guy - 205mdarkelf - 204mnarniads - 201mjj99 - 200mTelemachos - 198mWrath - 197mChewy - 188mgrim22 - 185mThe Dark Alfred - 182mkayumanggi - 180mSimionski - 180mBaumer - 180m#ED - 180mKalo - 179mChaasmi - 178mGrey Ghost - 175m24Lost - 175mBastienGiot - 170mCmasterclay - 165mWater Bottle - 165mTree - 161mDamienRoc - 158m More people are close to what this will end up with though, so it's not as fun. Plus it makes me look bad. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 I think both of them are going to go under the lowest prediction. PotC will probably be closer, though. I'd hazard a guess that in the best case scenario, only four people don't lose points on Baywatch... that's IF it manages to get into the top 15. For PotC... maybe as many as 15 of us won't lose points? Sixteen? (Or am I misremembering the scoring and it's 40m away instead of 30m?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 SOTM 3 SCORED: 1. Will Alien Covenant have a higher OW than Alien vs Predator ($38.29M)? No 2. Will Alien Covenant's Midnight's be higher than Alien's OW ($3.52M)? Yes 3. Alien Covenant's Domestic total pass Alien Resurrection's Total Domestic gross ($47.79M) within its first 10 days of release ? Yes 4. Will Alien Covenant's 2nd weekend gross be more than half of Blade Runner's Total Domestic Gross ($16.43M)? No 5. Will Alien Covenant's WW total overtake that of Aliens' WW total ($131.06m) the the end of the weekend? No 6. Will Alien Covenant have a higher opening Sunday than Alien 3's Total UK Box Office ($12.76M)? No 7. Will Alien Covenant have a better 2nd weekend drop than Prometheus (59.4%)? No 8. Will Alien Covenant have a higher second Saturday gross than Alien vs Predator Requiem's total gross in Mexico ($5.19M) No Tree: 52k Alfred: 46k 24Lost: 45k Spaghetti: 38k aabattery: 24k franfar: 24k grim22: 24k Telemachos: 24k Jake Gittes: 18k Exxdee: 16k Grey Ghost: 16k Matrix4You: 14k Blankments: 12k darkelf: 12k Simionski: 12k Wrath: 12k Empire: 10k Water Bottle: 10k jj99: 8k Chewy: 3k damnitgeorge08: 3k glassfairy: 3k That One Guy: 3k bcf26: 2k Baumer: -4k Chasmmi: -4k Fancyarcher: -4k kayumanggi: -4k The Panda: -4k WrathOfHan: -4k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 I'm waving the White Flag. I couldn't have a more disastrous start to the game so far. I'm in the top ten in scoring right now but I'm going to drop massively after spur of the moment three and alien King Arthur and Baywatch are all going to miss the top 15. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 27, 2017 Share Posted May 27, 2017 You might want to hold off on the scoring for spur-of-the-moment three. We don't know the exact numbers yet for alien for Friday so it could still have a bigger number than what is required for number 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...