The Summer Game 2017 | Beans have been counted, sprouts measured, zombies destroyed, and Tele relegated to... oh wait better not... | Let the Pre-Season Reveals begin ...

[WrathOfHan]

5 hours ago, chasmmi said:

How things change. 

 

6 weeks ago I thought the Covenant finishing number 1 was a slam dunk and Baywatch was a dark horse to edge Pirates.  

And week 2's question should have been easy too  Fortunately, next week's is an easy one with the way presales are trending and the probable underperformances this weekend. The Mummy vs WW is going to be a challenge if tracking doesn't pick up.

[franfar]

RIP me. This summer has been so underwhelming. 

[franfar]

SOTM 4 is confusing me. For question #4, I'm thinking that it'll have a 60% drop cuz it's a SHM, and the three DCEU films have had at least 60% drops. I can see it dropping more slightly than them, but why is everyone else's drops so low? Am I missing something?

[baumer]

@franfar..... that is a really good question and to be honest with you I'm not sure why everybody is going so low. If it is as good as the early word is then I don't think it's going to fall 60%. But I don't see how it falls less than 50 either. Especially if it has a significant Thursday preview number. So go with your gut and don't pay attention to it anybody else puts down

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, franfar said:

SOTM 4 is confusing me. For question #4, I'm thinking that it'll have a 60% drop cuz it's a SHM, and the three DCEU films have had at least 60% drops. I can see it dropping more slightly than them, but why is everyone else's drops so low? Am I missing something?

 

Because if you go over you lose points, I'll likely adjust my stuff going forward though.

 

Plus, that double your points is to juicy to risk moving up a bracket.

[franfar]

12 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Because if you go over you lose points, I'll likely adjust my stuff going forward though.

 

Plus, that double your points is to juicy to risk moving up a bracket.

Ok, yeah that makes sense. It was pretty late when I was reading it, so I didn't fully get it

Edited May 26, 2017 by franfar

[baumer]

If alien misses. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer.

[grey ghost]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

If alien mrs. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer.

 

What about Baywatch?

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

What about Baywatch?

I think legs will be real bad for it and it'll do under Alien, at 70m

[The Panda]

22 minutes ago, baumer said:

If alien mrs. 80,000,000 there's a really good chance it will not make the top 15 for the summer.

 

Idk, I'm not seeing many near 100m grossers this Summer.  The House and Rough Night probably aren't breaking out, I'm not seeing Girls Trip or Valerian.  Emoji has no interest.  It's hard to see Annabelle doing as well as the first, even in a barren August.

 

Maybe Atomic Blonde could pull a Lucy?  Detroit's another one I think could pull a surprise.  The Hitman's Bodyguard might be a sleeper?

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Idk, I'm not seeing many near 100m grossers this Summer.  The House and Rough Night probably aren't breaking out, I'm not seeing Girls Trip or Valerian.  Emoji has no interest.  It's hard to see Annabelle doing as well as the first, even in a barren August.

 

Maybe Atomic Blonde could pull a Lucy?  Detroit's another one I think could pull a surprise.  The Hitman's Bodyguard might be a sleeper?

 

The reason I took girls trip to break out as because it's got a unique promise in terms that it's aimed clearly and a black audience and it's got for fairly well known black actresses going out and having a good time. I think it could be a breakout hit like Think Like a Man.

[grey ghost]

We'll probably end up with a 8 way battle with the films fighting for spots #10 through #15.

 

It's going to be a bloodbath.

 

And here I thought this was one of the easier summers to predict.

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

We'll probably end up with a 8 way battle with the films fighting for spots #10 through #15.

 

It's going to be a bloodbath.

 

And here I thought this was one of the easier summers to predict.

 

If the scheduling for next summer stays the same, it'll be wild

 

Infinity War

Han Solo

Deadpool

Incredibles 2

Jurassic World 2

DC Movie?

 

Then there's plenty of potential 100m hits in there rn

Life of the Party

Slenderman

Ocean's Eight

Bumblebee?

Barbie

Tag?

Ant-Man 2

The Spy Who Dumped Me

Hotel Transylvania 3

The Nun

Skyscraper

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again

Mission Impossible 6

Holmes and Watson

The Predator

 

The slates bound to change but it looks packed.

[aabattery]

For posterity, here is everyone's Baywatch predictions from the Preseason tracking thread:

 

Water Bottle - 236.1m
Empire - 226m
Chaasmi - 165m
Blankments - 151m
Baywatch - 150m
bcf26 - 145m
narniads - 145m
Simionski - 145m
24Lost - 145m
The Panda - 144.2m
Jake Gittes - 144m
The Dark Alfred - 142m
DamienRoc - 141m
Grey Ghost - 140m
Baumer - 139m
Telemachos - 138m
WrathofHan - 135m
Fancyarcher - 134m
darkelf - 130m
Cmasterclay - 125m
grim22 - 125m
Wrath - 125m
MrPink - 125m
Chewy - 125m
Spaghetti - 120m
aabattery - 120m
#ED - 119m
kayumanggi - 115m
BastienGiot - 115m
Kalo - 115m
Matrix4You - 115m
MovieMan - 113m
damnitgeorge08 - 110m
franfar - 110m
jj99- 105m
Exxdee - 100m
Mike Hunt - 99.9m
Tree - 91m

 

Good chance it doesn't even reach the lowest of these with the current weekend number. Woops.

[BadAtGender]

Now post the PotC predictions.

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Now post the PotC predictions.

 

JJ-8 - 288.3m
franfar - 278.3m
glassfairy - 275m
WrathofHan - 260m
The Panda - 250m
Empire - 238m
MovieMan - 235m
Mike Hunt - 230m
damnitgeorge08 - 230m
Fancyarcher - 229m
Blankments - 225m
bcf26 - 225m
MrPink - 225m
Exxdee - 220m
aabattery - 220m
Spaghetti - 220m
Matrix4You - 217m
Jake Gittes - 217.3m
Goffe - 205m
That One Guy - 205m
darkelf - 204m
narniads - 201m
jj99 - 200m
Telemachos - 198m
Wrath - 197m
Chewy - 188m
grim22 - 185m
The Dark Alfred - 182m
kayumanggi - 180m
Simionski - 180m
Baumer - 180m
#ED - 180m
Kalo - 179m
Chaasmi - 178m
Grey Ghost - 175m
24Lost - 175m
BastienGiot - 170m
Cmasterclay - 165m
Water Bottle - 165m
Tree - 161m
DamienRoc - 158m

 

More people are close to what this will end up with though, so it's not as fun.

 

Plus it makes me look bad.

[BadAtGender]

I think both of them are going to go under the lowest prediction. PotC will probably be closer, though.

 

I'd hazard a guess that in the best case scenario, only four people don't lose points on Baywatch... that's IF it manages to get into the top 15.

 

For PotC... maybe as many as 15 of us won't lose points? Sixteen?

 

(Or am I misremembering the scoring and it's 40m away instead of 30m?)

[WrathOfHan]

SOTM 3 SCORED:

 

1. Will Alien Covenant have a higher OW than Alien vs Predator ($38.29M)? No

2. Will Alien Covenant's Midnight's be higher than Alien's OW ($3.52M)? Yes

3. Alien Covenant's Domestic total pass Alien Resurrection's Total Domestic gross ($47.79M) within its first 10 days of release ? Yes

4. Will Alien Covenant's 2nd weekend gross be more than half of Blade Runner's Total Domestic Gross ($16.43M)?  No

 

5. Will Alien Covenant's WW total overtake that of Aliens' WW total ($131.06m) the the end of the weekend? No

6. Will Alien Covenant have a higher opening Sunday than Alien 3's Total UK Box Office ($12.76M)?   No

7. Will Alien Covenant have a better 2nd weekend drop than Prometheus (59.4%)? No

8. Will Alien Covenant have a higher second Saturday gross than Alien vs Predator Requiem's total gross in Mexico ($5.19M) No

 

Tree: 52k

Alfred: 46k

24Lost: 45k

Spaghetti: 38k

aabattery: 24k

franfar: 24k

grim22: 24k

Telemachos: 24k

Jake Gittes: 18k

Exxdee: 16k

Grey Ghost: 16k

Matrix4You: 14k

Blankments: 12k

darkelf: 12k

Simionski: 12k

Wrath: 12k

Empire: 10k

Water Bottle: 10k

jj99: 8k

Chewy: 3k

damnitgeorge08: 3k

glassfairy: 3k

That One Guy: 3k

bcf26: 2k

 

Baumer: -4k

Chasmmi: -4k

Fancyarcher: -4k

kayumanggi: -4k

The Panda: -4k

WrathOfHan: -4k

[baumer]

I'm waving the White Flag. I couldn't have a more disastrous start to the game so far. I'm in the top ten in scoring right now but I'm going to drop massively after spur of the moment three and alien King Arthur and Baywatch are all going to miss the top 15.

[baumer]

You might want to hold off on the scoring for spur-of-the-moment three. We don't know the exact numbers yet for alien for Friday so it could still have a bigger number than what is required for number 8